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Predictions 28-30th Season Finale

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Sep 22, 2018.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    As is the way in Spring at 150 hours out; it's bouncing around a bit. However, The Canuck, GFS & EC are progging the final act for 2018 season. DO very much like the set-up but alas it's looking dry, although I think precip numbers will be corrected in the next day or two.

    AAO shifting back to negative territory, or nearby, so it's supported on the broad-scale.

    10-20CM for the majors IMO.

    GFS
    [​IMG]

    EC
    [​IMG]

    The Canuck
    [​IMG]

    AAO has had another +'ive surge but it's looking it'll hang neutral or -'ive through the dying days of our season, all supportive for some loose polar air.
    [​IMG]
     
  2. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    I will be watching the surf report much later next month. I have hung up the planks and I look forward to skiing next year. Bushwalking also awaits this coming green season.
     
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  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Interesting to see EC progging the surface trough over WA move offshore (29th) on the latest 00z run. Says to me EC's progging zonals still in transition.
     
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  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Got a sea level date in Bass Straight for a week next week, starting Saturday so that Southerly flow is being closely watched by moi.
     
  5. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wet NRL grand final
     
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  6. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    A new SW Groundswell, 'tis good !
     
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  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    And likely a mild winter-like AFL GF.
     
  8. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC definitely looking 10-20cm.
    And those uppers look real cold, particularly for spring.
     
  9. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Forget football :gives:
    Sounds like touring time to me!
     
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  10. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    2016 comes to mind.......late snow. Touring in deepish fresh after the lifts stopped spinning.

    20 cents on top of this will do fine!

     
  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    All three models going for a cut-off Tasman low. That could be interesting.
     
  12. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Especially for rain
     
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  13. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hmmm. Snow down to Bredbo perhaps.
     
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  14. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    ill be at Hotham Friday Saturday.
    Watching with interest
     
  15. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 850 temps for 10pm Saturday. There is fluctuating warm advection prior to this but progged as reasonably dry- Shear pattern/ potential convection seems to support this. Quite a lot of variation in isentropic layer form location to location so expect a fair bit of micro pressure/temp advection from one area to another ( high res vorticity plots are spotty and rather jumbled atm) IMO. Potential for small details to change considerably from run to run perhaps IMO. Does taste of mint though..
     
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  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Onshore flow if that cut-off eventuates.
    Rain for the Monaro would be a blessing.
     
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  17. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hang a left baby.
     
  18. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    It "looks" to good to be true for some areas.
    Though EC don't model Tasman lows that often. So the fact its been hanging onto this for every run bar one is pretty remarkable.
     
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  19. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS coming around to it.
     
  20. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sure does look too good to be true. Even got 10-20cm for the Badja on Sunday.

    Chains to ski tube on Sunday and Monday - Chaos possible for Sunday arvo out of PV car park - na can't be true - must be just a tease before dumping 100mm of tears instead. Pond Skim at PV may need to be canceled.
     
  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS continues to prog one bullish beast. 12Z & 18Z vastly different from the 00z run at the moment.
    Still a fair bit to settle on yet.

    Still a 10-20cm system IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
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  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow above 400m in Southern Vic if GFS 00z is to be believed.
    IMO with all the model adjustments it'll end up down to circa 800m on Saturday
     
  23. Lifes2good

    Lifes2good One of Us

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    Is it likely to be windy with this system?
     
  24. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sunday morning could be interesting on the roads .
     
  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Upstream winds (Thursday/Friday) look to be the worst (20-30 knots).
    Pretty tame by comparison to our other systems this season.
     
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  26. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    GEM 00z looking like 10-20cm too, consistent progression into Tasman low, with some potential heavy snowfall periods IMO.

     
  27. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Be mindfull that there is currently some brisk brutal movement on both GFS and EC models. Possibilities for gale force winds is on the cards if she tracks differently. This is 10pm Sunday EC at circa 1500 metres elevation.
     
  28. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Am seeing some potential signs of a Jetstream transverse circulation/ coupled jetstream scenario. @POW_hungry , @Jellybeans1000 ? Any thoughts.
     
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    hrm, dunno. Upper jet is humming through the tropic of Cap, doubt it'll be much use for this low.
    [​IMG]
     
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC successfully pinning the tail on the donkey on the 00z run.
    Bullseye.
    [​IMG]
     
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  31. Lifes2good

    Lifes2good One of Us

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    Will be anxiously watching this thread and hoping for a repeat of a season long, long ago (1992?) when we drove down for the long weekend and it started snowing just out of Cooma and we had an absolute screamer of a day on the Saturday.
     
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  32. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  33. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Hard Yards

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    Janes auto likes it
     

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  34. Paperboy

    Paperboy One of Us

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    Looking like snow on AFL grand final day, BOM saying 5-10cm. I hope we get more, long weekend and the start of school holidays.

    Snow shower or two.
    Possible rainfall: 3 to 8 mm
    Chance of any rain: 70% [​IMG]
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's EC output, same as YrNo.
     
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  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    For all of those wanting to get carried away on EC's max dump depths:
     
  37. Paperboy

    Paperboy One of Us

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    Is that a follow up front on Wednesday 3rd October??
     
  38. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Foot of snow for jindy
     
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  39. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Hard Yards

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    Hope so, I’m at Perisher from Monday the 1st until close!
     
  40. Paperboy

    Paperboy One of Us

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    YrNo say heavy snow Saturday night and Sunday morning. Fingers crossed for a powder day for Sunday, NRL grand final.
     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Depends where you are. Perisher and Thredbo should do ok (at this stage), but Buller's going to get far, far less.
     
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  42. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Oh FFS :mad:
     
  43. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah that's all based on EC's ~110cm figure.

    The interesting thing is that the metre of snowfall extends beyond the Snowy Mountains to parts of the Monaro. Roads would be absolute insanity if that happened.

    The progression behind it's big system forecast:

    That is some Tasman low.

    But will it happen.... at this stage I'd say not.
     
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  44. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's happened before.
     
  45. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us

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    Temps for Jagungal on Saturday night/Sunday are looking marginal ( 0 , -1) but maybe . Temps for Thursday 27th are looking horrible if they happen , 19c at 1pm.
    Not confident on snowfall for this period just based on these temps in the Jagungal , true knifes edge stuff.
     
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS generously upgrading moisture for the SE too.
    Sure does have some cold air on the backside with 534 dam over Adelaide Saturday AM.
    [​IMG]
     
  47. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tomorrow will be the test.
     
  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Where does your data come from?
    Based on the latest runs, temps are not an issue for a place like Jagungal on Saturday night IMO.
     
  49. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm keen on going just for the weather
     
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  50. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    May as well, kind of considering the same.
     
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