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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Sep 22, 2018.
where's the spag plot
This is great , in snow till 8/10, bring it on .. business as usual for snowfall[/QUOTE]
GFS 06z giving the massive dump a go as well.
Inching one step closer towards this dreamy looking buzzer beater.
The Saturday was brilliant however, the Sunday turned to extensive clear precip. Followed by Jim Richards classic words to round up Bathurst.
Guess who's driving out of town when this is predicted to happen
nullschool at 700hPa / 3500m apx now
That's not even nearly it's biggest play.
Absolutely feral in East Gippsland.
Being a primary producer in the area with probes on my land belonging to a few govt depts. and a uni I get access to collected data such as temps (including air and sub-terrainian) , moisture content , precipitation etc , wind speed and direction as well as forecasted information for the area. This is why you will see me post absolute temps at specific times eg last night min was 1.3c at 5.07am 954 masl , this info comes straight from their data collection.
You're talking about forecasted temps though. It would have to be model output not some special farmers/government info... What model is it? Nothing agrees with your -1C temp @ 2000m.
I suspect it's OCF, which you can ignore for atleast the next 2-3 days IMO
EC!!! WTF!!! THATS INSANE!!!
I'll believe it when that low is still there by Tuesday.
Need moar snow...... just place it on top of this lot thanks. Then we can ski BC till Xmas......
GFS & EC reverting to normality this morning with a glancing blow as opposed to the BS thrown up last night.
Ridge takes control by Saturday arvo.
Classic smash and grab
Something is always better than none or rain.
Yes I recall. In fact by Saturday afternoon we were sweating in the heat and came home with quite bad sunburn. But I think there was 30cm of fresh in the morning. It was an amazing couple of hours.
Not looking very promising now.
Never really was unfortunately
It was looking amazing for NSW
Still looks pretty solid on the yanks
EC is flipping around
~60mm around Goulburn? Still a bit flakey ole GFS IMO.
EC has a ridge dominant set-up, much like this morning. IMO this is our trend for this system, making it more like a 10 cents system now.
Wind vectors have done a massive change from yesterday on both GFS and EC. Both models are far from getting some accurate viable prediction probabilities IMO.
I'd give another day or two. Spring weather is very temperamental in terms of predictions.
Its a better run this arvo.
I'll wait for the High Res
As Claude says - its that time of year, so we are looking at lower tercile preferences in data process. Climate indicators lean towards blocking Highs- but lets hold onto a neg SAM while it lasts.
Was hoping for one last winter blast. If we can get 10cm, that would be a good result.
GFS progging a nice little surface low ahead of the front on Friday PM. Could be a good chance to see some active cells popping through Central Tablelands by mid-arvo. Possibly hitting coastal areas by late arvo.
Wound back plenty.
2-5cm for Vic resorts. IMO
GFS on board for a 5-10er on the 06z run. Ushered along quickly by that ridge.
1020hPa over the alps by Saturday AM.
Friday evening looking very interesting for Sydney & The Gong.
Wollongong escarpment ST snow perhaps.
Off EC high res.
Axs R looking really interesting for Saturday progression
Considering its the most correct model.......
Media hysteria on the coldest AFL GF on record:
earthschool is plotting 11C on saturday in mlb area
it's been cold all day here in Gerroa/Kiama.It's late sept - and it's been years since I remember it been normal cold like this in early spring. but all of the forecasts are showing very little precip.so it's basically cold and dry with the occassional tear.
pond skim here we come ...
Same for me but you can play the video np
AXSR very interesting
ECL / Tasman Low.
and another next Thursday / Friday.
I intend to add to that hysteria in my new role as sports editor at Channel Ten's news portal tendaily.com.au. Stand by.
Congrats, but I think your witty humour is better than 'sports journalism'.
sneaky chance for BMs and OP snow on Saturday arvo
A chance @ 1100m yeah. but don't think it'll accumulate.
Cheeky mid-level pool though:
Inflow is perfect
Ha! Mate of mine just started as their social media dude! Lawrence is his name.
Hows the general moisture interest on AXS-R Donzah? 5cm type falls?