Predictions 28th - 30th September

Discussion in 'Weather' started by GTB, Sep 21, 2016.

  1. GTB

    GTB Dedicated Member

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    Looks like we might have one last hurrah, GFS and Access both showing promise.

    IMO If current charts were to hold we would get 30-50cm of powder with 528 thickness over the alps (NSW) :):woohoo:
     
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  2. stansi

    stansi Dedicated Member
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    Love Your enthusiasm, But ah, how many hours out is that?
     
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  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  5. Zimboo

    Zimboo Addicted Member

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    At this stage it looks like the best one this last month.......................could be late but great for the BC crew.
     
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  6. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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  7. Seafm

    Seafm Dedicated Member
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    If the four day rule could bring it forward by four days I'd be very happy indeed. Guess who's going back to reality on the 28th:(:(
     
  8. NewTurns

    NewTurns Dedicated Member
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    Don't want to get too ahead of myself but am at Thredbo from this coming Sunday to the following Sunday....feeling the faintest twinges of probably highly unwarranted stoke......o_O
     
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  9. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    downgrade this morning.
     
  10. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    2 day rule this year.
     
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  11. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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  12. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    I thought so too .
    Starting to get a rather familiar look about it.
    BUT.
    Have learned not to swing and bet on every run / update.
    Still a long way out .
    Edit : That pressure be getting low there jeffx !
     
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  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    as always.
     
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  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Weather in spring (& autumn) can be very volatile. I trust models even less than in Winter & Summer.
     
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  15. telecrag

    telecrag Part of the Furniture
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    Half day.
     
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  16. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    yep. something something there's still time something something.... it's not coming back.
     
  17. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    just looks a lot of problems for some down the road.

    [​IMG]
     
  18. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Wait, a 987hpa low over SE Aus? Plssssss
     
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    One would hope not. It would be another world of pain.
     
  20. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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  21. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    [​IMG]
    Purple area's are the wheat belt, EPS run.


    [​IMG]
    Furthest isobar is @1000mb on the deterministic, @Vermilion nobody is asking you to buy into the EC runs, constructive reasons why you think the runs are a load of sh--t instead of one liners would be more appropriate.

    If you have better model data then plssssss post it,give these guys a heads up.I don't care if it snows, flooding and possible property damage is the feature here. So post away V no more from me.
     
    #21 jeffx, Sep 22, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2016
  22. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Jeff mate, you gotta take a bit of a chill pill and just calm it down a bit. Do you have personal vested interests in the models? It's OK to say you dont think something will come off, especially a 987hpa low, they are pretty bloody rare over mainland SE Australia. Dont take it personally man.
     
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  23. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room
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    Made me recall this bad boy of 2-3 February 2005.
    Dropped 120mm in Melbourne, greatest 24 hour rainfall since records began being kept
    [​IMG]
     
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  24. telecrag

    telecrag Part of the Furniture
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    Was that the Feb we got 30cm up top, and dudes were doing lifties at Charlotte Pass?
     
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  25. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room
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    Not sure about quantity, but I do recall there was snow that fell as a result of that system.
    With catchments pretty soaked, anything close to system like that dropping plenty of rain would cause a lot of carnage atm.
    This one was somewhat similar (early September 2010) that dropped a lot of rain too. Hotham was shut down, the road at Falls was cut by a landslide, and car parks at Buller were affected by a landslide as well:
    [​IMG]
     
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  26. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Yeah there was about a foot of fresh that fell.
     
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  27. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    [​IMG]

    Wave trying to break over SE Australia. looks Good. Not sure how you can offer much analysis on a localized 987 Hpa Low that far out over SE Aus. If it was in the Tasman and or Coral Sea, you would have greater confidence than over Victoria.

    But localized lows are trending on the models and real time at the moment so who knows. However, I would take the typical winter front that is colder and clears with a fat high.

    :nerd:
     
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  28. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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  29. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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  30. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    [​IMG]

    One of OZBC pics.

    Need a clearing high.
     
  31. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    I like that GFS chart.... but I don't really think it's gonna happen sadly. For no other reason than lack of season vibe.
     
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  32. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    This ^^.
    Just hasn't been / isn't that sort of a year.
    IMO.
     
  33. Vandans

    Vandans Active Member

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    What is the photo of the OZBC taken ?
     
  34. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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  35. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Time to migrate north to the main range. There is plenty of vibe up there, just need some clear highs.
     
  36. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend
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    Can guarantee you it's not looking like that level of cover out there today!!!
     
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Not much agreement about the shape, but the models both think something will happen.
     
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  38. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    EC a shite sight better than this morning. At least that's encouraging.
     
  39. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    AXS looking pretty good. In fact, every model is showing something that's kinda similar. At least we dont have 1 model showing a blocking high, or GFS going full ECL on us.
    A couple of decent blobs between 9-11 oclock too. I'm listening:
    [​IMG]
     
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  40. neck_deep

    neck_deep Active Member

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    I'd appreciate a blocking high right now.
     
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  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Ridging out on GFS

    [​IMG]

    I can see a trend.
     
  43. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Axs looking more like EC this morning.
    Scary for the Southern States if Thursday Friday eventuate.
     
  44. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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    Holy shit.

    Those charts are absolutely nuts.

    This mornings 168hr AccessG its something else
     
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  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Jane cautiously optimistic




    "Then the next big low arrives with a long stretch of precipitation for the rest of the week. Latest guidance shows this system will keep its cold air, and there could be a lot of snow to finish the season. "
     
  46. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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  47. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    If only access G was reliable.
     
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  48. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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  49. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    IMO still has the potential to be ridged out.