Predictions 28th - 30th September

Discussion in 'Weather' started by GTB, Sep 21, 2016.

  1. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,514
    Likes Received:
    1,096
    The ridge ahead of the next front is very strong.

    [​IMG]
     
  2. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,514
    Likes Received:
    1,096
    In view the BC conditions are not great for the weekend and dont look good over the extended foretasted 336 hrs.

    There has been about six very good BC days this year
     
    Vermillion likes this.
  3. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    3,533
    Likes Received:
    2,700
    But I will be on top of Hotham. I just need to gulp down some breakfast, grab lunch and daypack and skis.
    And then go hard all morning, have lunch at 2pm, and ease out of the day.
     
    7wombathead and mick chopps like this.
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,682
    Likes Received:
    6,453
  5. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    50,338
    Likes Received:
    27,134
    Rock solid on Axs R this morning.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    Claude Cat and FourSquare04 like this.
  6. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2006
    Messages:
    15,438
    Likes Received:
    4,631
  7. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    64,497
    Likes Received:
    17,326
    There's no pressure >1020hpa on that chart. That's the kind of thing I like.
     
  8. neck_deep

    neck_deep Active Member

    Joined:
    May 10, 2011
    Messages:
    399
    Likes Received:
    204
    the problem i have is the work out i give the snooze button whilst forcing myself out of the cold tent/car/hut that destroys my time. Good plan though. my see you at Hotham yet depending on road closures about the place.
     
  9. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    50,338
    Likes Received:
    27,134
    snooze button on a pow day???
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,682
    Likes Received:
    6,453
    Yer nah/EC on the lighter end of the progged precip scale.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  11. neck_deep

    neck_deep Active Member

    Joined:
    May 10, 2011
    Messages:
    399
    Likes Received:
    204
    I know i know, im a bad human being.

    That is the beauty of BC though, You can generally get away with it.
     
    mick chopps likes this.
  12. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    3,533
    Likes Received:
    2,700
    Not on a pow day
     
    mick chopps likes this.
  13. 1000m

    1000m Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2015
    Messages:
    64
    Likes Received:
    44
    Up to 125mm forecast by BOM for Thredbo top station over the next week. Looks cold and wet. Hume Dam now almost full at 97% capacity. More systems rolling in over coming weeks.Looks like lots of flooding.
     
  14. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    4,625
    Likes Received:
    1,748
    Very conservative IMO

    I cannot see anything less than 2 feet at Perisher albeit very wind loaded over the course of Thursday - Saturday

    IMO
     
    POW_hungry and Claude Cat like this.
  15. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    4,625
    Likes Received:
    1,748
    Any predictions on if the resorts will extend through next week given it's school holidays?

    Sorry CC I know it's slightly off topic, but technically it is a 'prediction' :D
     
  16. Nidecker

    Nidecker Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2009
    Messages:
    2,227
    Likes Received:
    972
    Before the Season Pass thing, I would have predicted this was a sure thing at Perisher, but now I predict that they would wonder about the upside for them, they might predict that it will be mostly be Season Pass holders? But then again I predict there is still another week of school hols?

    Edit: syntax for prediction thread
     
    #466 Nidecker, Sep 28, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2016
  17. 1000m

    1000m Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2015
    Messages:
    64
    Likes Received:
    44
    Radar showing black on rain band bout to hit Adelaide
     
  18. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2013
    Messages:
    45,428
    Likes Received:
    20,276
    Falls Creek closing this Sunday.
    Could be upwards of 100 mm falling up there over the course of the next 7 days.
     
    mick chopps likes this.
  19. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    50,338
    Likes Received:
    27,134
    Jane upping the ante this morning.

    [​IMG]
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,682
    Likes Received:
    6,453
    CC raised earlier shear as a limiting factor to substantial falls. I somewhat agree with you but the winds aloft look far from ideal. It's not a shoo-in, IMO.
     
  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,682
    Likes Received:
    6,453
    Spot on IMO.
     
  22. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    50,338
    Likes Received:
    27,134
    Axs is suggesting better temps on Friday night IMO. Still snow to about 1500m. definitely warmer come Saturday.
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  23. 1000m

    1000m Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2015
    Messages:
    64
    Likes Received:
    44
    POW_hungry likes this.
  24. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2016
    Messages:
    261
    Likes Received:
    462
    Thinking here mid thursday morning will be the start of the big dump over the alps.
     
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    92,011
    Likes Received:
    28,682
    That's how it looks to me too.
     
    jeffx and FourSquare04 like this.
  26. Chondro

    Chondro Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2013
    Messages:
    2,454
    Likes Received:
    1,249
    Looking outside at the moment, blue sky day, perfect temps.
    Calm before the storm.
     
  27. Tanuki

    Tanuki Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 29, 2010
    Messages:
    4,010
    Likes Received:
    1,245
    Beautiful morning, but the northerly is starting to pick up now.
     
  28. absentskier

    absentskier Old And Crusty
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2010
    Messages:
    20,634
    Likes Received:
    9,519
    Is it starting to look a little drier on Friday morning now (Melbourne)?
     
  29. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    4,625
    Likes Received:
    1,748
    WARNING - Porn alert

    Potential follow up creeping in on the 4 day run?

    [​IMG]
     
    mick chopps likes this.
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    92,011
    Likes Received:
    28,682
    Melbourne will be in rainshadow for most of the event IMO. We'll get some at the beginning (late tonight) and at the end, but not a huge amount in the middle. That's pretty standard when the low passes right over the top of us.
     
    1000m, mick chopps and absentskier like this.
  31. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    4,625
    Likes Received:
    1,748
    Thursday looking like a classic NW special - Perisher & Thredbo top are going to get flogged (and later on Selwyn)

    Wonder if once the cold air arrives will Thredbo get another large dump similar to that big one earlier in the season......
     
    #481 FourSquare04, Sep 28, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2016
    NewTurns and Nidecker like this.
  32. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    50,338
    Likes Received:
    27,134
    yep. with the wind this thing's carrying there will be some BIG numbers reported. BIG wind loading on leeward aspects. Suits all the northern resorts.
     
  33. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,514
    Likes Received:
    1,096
    This looks like a direct hit over the snowies.

    I cant recall a system like this. So its hard to predict. If it hits like this over the Alps and hangs around, it could be over 50 cm in a single event.

    [​IMG]
     
    #483 7wombathead, Sep 28, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2016
    blackice, NewTurns, nfip and 2 others like this.
  34. 1000m

    1000m Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2015
    Messages:
    64
    Likes Received:
    44
     
    mick chopps likes this.
  35. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,514
    Likes Received:
    1,096
    Cyclone.

    Needs a name. Are we sticking with Cyclone Caroline (CC) or is there an official name.
     
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    92,011
    Likes Received:
    28,682
    Predictions in this thread only. Use the observations thread for obs.
     
    1000m likes this.
  37. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    50,338
    Likes Received:
    27,134
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    92,011
    Likes Received:
    28,682
    Updated Vic BOM SWW

    SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for DAMAGING WINDS and HEAVY RAINFALL
    For people in the Central, Mallee, South West, Northern Country, North Central, North East and Wimmera Forecast Districts.

    Issued at 10:59 am Wednesday, 28 September 2016.

    WEATHER SITUATION:
    A complex, developing low pressure system approaching from the west with an associated trough is expected to reach northwest Victoria late on Wednesday.

    DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 50 to 60 km/h with peak gusts of around 100 km/h are expected to develop across western districts late Wednesday with gusts reaching 110 km/h in elevated areas and with thunderstorms. These winds are expected to extend eastwards to central and eastern districts early Thursday morning.

    HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is likely to develop across the Mallee and Wimmera districts Wednesday night, extending to the Southwest and central districts overnight, and the North East district during Thursday morning. Rainfall totals of 10-25 mm are likely across most districts with isolated totals of 50 mm possible. In the North East district totals of 20-50 mm are expected with isolated totals of up to 80 mm. This rain is also likely to fall within a 6-9 hour period. Thunderstorms may also result in locally higher falls.

    Wind and rainfall are expected to ease from the west later in the morning.

    Locations which may be affected include Mildura, Horsham, Warrnambool, Bendigo, Shepparton, Seymour, Maryborough, Ballarat, Geelong, Melbourne, Wodonga and Wangaratta.

     
  39. cookieman

    cookieman Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2013
    Messages:
    1,401
    Likes Received:
    1,040
    WOW, THIS IS A MONSTER WITH 4 HEADS (on Friday am)
    About to smash through Adelaide now.
     
  40. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    3,533
    Likes Received:
    2,700
    Stay inside til Friday Morning (massive pow alert), anywhere above 1000m should be great for skiing and crap for driving. Stay safe
     
  41. neck_deep

    neck_deep Active Member

    Joined:
    May 10, 2011
    Messages:
    399
    Likes Received:
    204
    Don't know were your riding but i haven't hit many BC tracks the last few years. Still no excuse, Im off to the corner to sit down and think about what i have done.
     
  42. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,514
    Likes Received:
    1,096
    BOM 4 day chart with two events.

    I will take the snow, swell and floods please as it beats bushfires. Low foretasted to cross ALPS. Stay safe and have fun :thumbs:

    [​IMG]
     
    #492 7wombathead, Sep 28, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2016
  43. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    3,533
    Likes Received:
    2,700
    Hotham, probably not BC on Friday and BC on Saturday
     
  44. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    3,533
    Likes Received:
    2,700
    Prediction: This is a wild one. Stay safe but have fun watching! :cheers:
     
    nfip likes this.
  45. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    4,625
    Likes Received:
    1,748
    Wowzers, if only this system hit mid to late August!!! Why, Why now on the last weekend of the season :(

    IMO Spencer's will reach peak depth for the season/year at the end of next week - 2m mark very high potential to be cracked......if this continues as current 4 day is predicting.....
     
    NewTurns, nfip and Jellybeans1000 like this.
  46. tele-whippet

    tele-whippet beard stroker
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2006
    Messages:
    10,761
    Likes Received:
    11,492
    The real season is about to start :D on the MR
     
    ecowain, smackies, NewTurns and 4 others like this.
  47. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    4,625
    Likes Received:
    1,748
    @Sandy would love to hear your "Predictions" on this upcoming system(s)

    Pressure looks VERY low over the alps (Sub 980s), got to be a good thing?
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  48. telecrag

    telecrag Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 12, 2007
    Messages:
    19,019
    Likes Received:
    15,262
    That would be highly irregular! I think its unlikely to get that high, but real possibility of peak depth, weird.
     
  49. dawooduck

    dawooduck Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2002
    Messages:
    50,511
    Likes Received:
    14,547
    I predict I may build a snowman on the block
     
    tele-whippet, telecrag and CarveMan like this.
  50. dawooduck

    dawooduck Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2002
    Messages:
    50,511
    Likes Received:
    14,547
    I observe I just booked two nights at the motel .... just in case :D