Predictions 28th - 30th September

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by GTB, Sep 21, 2016.

  1. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    The ridge ahead of the next front is very strong.

    [​IMG]
     
  2. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    In view the BC conditions are not great for the weekend and dont look good over the extended foretasted 336 hrs.

    There has been about six very good BC days this year
     
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  3. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    But I will be on top of Hotham. I just need to gulp down some breakfast, grab lunch and daypack and skis.
    And then go hard all morning, have lunch at 2pm, and ease out of the day.
     
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  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  5. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Rock solid on Axs R this morning.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  6. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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  7. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    There's no pressure >1020hpa on that chart. That's the kind of thing I like.
     
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  8. neck_deep

    neck_deep Addicted

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    the problem i have is the work out i give the snooze button whilst forcing myself out of the cold tent/car/hut that destroys my time. Good plan though. my see you at Hotham yet depending on road closures about the place.
     
  9. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    snooze button on a pow day???
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yer nah/EC on the lighter end of the progged precip scale.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  11. neck_deep

    neck_deep Addicted

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    I know i know, im a bad human being.

    That is the beauty of BC though, You can generally get away with it.
     
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  12. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not on a pow day
     
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  13. 1000m

    1000m Hard Yards

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    Up to 125mm forecast by BOM for Thredbo top station over the next week. Looks cold and wet. Hume Dam now almost full at 97% capacity. More systems rolling in over coming weeks.Looks like lots of flooding.
     
  14. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Very conservative IMO

    I cannot see anything less than 2 feet at Perisher albeit very wind loaded over the course of Thursday - Saturday

    IMO
     
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  15. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Any predictions on if the resorts will extend through next week given it's school holidays?

    Sorry CC I know it's slightly off topic, but technically it is a 'prediction' :D
     
  16. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Before the Season Pass thing, I would have predicted this was a sure thing at Perisher, but now I predict that they would wonder about the upside for them, they might predict that it will be mostly be Season Pass holders? But then again I predict there is still another week of school hols?

    Edit: syntax for prediction thread
     
    #466 Nidecker, Sep 28, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2016
  17. 1000m

    1000m Hard Yards

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    Radar showing black on rain band bout to hit Adelaide
     
  18. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Falls Creek closing this Sunday.
    Could be upwards of 100 mm falling up there over the course of the next 7 days.
     
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  19. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Jane upping the ante this morning.

    [​IMG]
     
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  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    CC raised earlier shear as a limiting factor to substantial falls. I somewhat agree with you but the winds aloft look far from ideal. It's not a shoo-in, IMO.
     
  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Spot on IMO.
     
  22. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Axs is suggesting better temps on Friday night IMO. Still snow to about 1500m. definitely warmer come Saturday.
     
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  23. 1000m

    1000m Hard Yards

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  24. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    Thinking here mid thursday morning will be the start of the big dump over the alps.
     
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    That's how it looks to me too.
     
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  26. Chondro

    Chondro One of Us

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    Looking outside at the moment, blue sky day, perfect temps.
    Calm before the storm.
     
  27. Tanuki

    Tanuki A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Beautiful morning, but the northerly is starting to pick up now.
     
  28. absentskier

    absentskier Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is it starting to look a little drier on Friday morning now (Melbourne)?
     
  29. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    WARNING - Porn alert

    Potential follow up creeping in on the 4 day run?

    [​IMG]
     
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  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Melbourne will be in rainshadow for most of the event IMO. We'll get some at the beginning (late tonight) and at the end, but not a huge amount in the middle. That's pretty standard when the low passes right over the top of us.
     
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  31. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Thursday looking like a classic NW special - Perisher & Thredbo top are going to get flogged (and later on Selwyn)

    Wonder if once the cold air arrives will Thredbo get another large dump similar to that big one earlier in the season......
     
    #481 FourSquare04, Sep 28, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2016
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  32. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    yep. with the wind this thing's carrying there will be some BIG numbers reported. BIG wind loading on leeward aspects. Suits all the northern resorts.
     
  33. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    This looks like a direct hit over the snowies.

    I cant recall a system like this. So its hard to predict. If it hits like this over the Alps and hangs around, it could be over 50 cm in a single event.

    [​IMG]
     
    #483 7wombathead, Sep 28, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2016
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  34. 1000m

    1000m Hard Yards

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  35. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Cyclone.

    Needs a name. Are we sticking with Cyclone Caroline (CC) or is there an official name.
     
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Predictions in this thread only. Use the observations thread for obs.
     
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  37. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Updated Vic BOM SWW

    SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for DAMAGING WINDS and HEAVY RAINFALL
    For people in the Central, Mallee, South West, Northern Country, North Central, North East and Wimmera Forecast Districts.

    Issued at 10:59 am Wednesday, 28 September 2016.

    WEATHER SITUATION:
    A complex, developing low pressure system approaching from the west with an associated trough is expected to reach northwest Victoria late on Wednesday.

    DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 50 to 60 km/h with peak gusts of around 100 km/h are expected to develop across western districts late Wednesday with gusts reaching 110 km/h in elevated areas and with thunderstorms. These winds are expected to extend eastwards to central and eastern districts early Thursday morning.

    HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is likely to develop across the Mallee and Wimmera districts Wednesday night, extending to the Southwest and central districts overnight, and the North East district during Thursday morning. Rainfall totals of 10-25 mm are likely across most districts with isolated totals of 50 mm possible. In the North East district totals of 20-50 mm are expected with isolated totals of up to 80 mm. This rain is also likely to fall within a 6-9 hour period. Thunderstorms may also result in locally higher falls.

    Wind and rainfall are expected to ease from the west later in the morning.

    Locations which may be affected include Mildura, Horsham, Warrnambool, Bendigo, Shepparton, Seymour, Maryborough, Ballarat, Geelong, Melbourne, Wodonga and Wangaratta.

     
  39. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us

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    WOW, THIS IS A MONSTER WITH 4 HEADS (on Friday am)
    About to smash through Adelaide now.
     
  40. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Stay inside til Friday Morning (massive pow alert), anywhere above 1000m should be great for skiing and crap for driving. Stay safe
     
  41. neck_deep

    neck_deep Addicted

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    Don't know were your riding but i haven't hit many BC tracks the last few years. Still no excuse, Im off to the corner to sit down and think about what i have done.
     
  42. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    BOM 4 day chart with two events.

    I will take the snow, swell and floods please as it beats bushfires. Low foretasted to cross ALPS. Stay safe and have fun :thumbs:

    [​IMG]
     
    #492 7wombathead, Sep 28, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2016
  43. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hotham, probably not BC on Friday and BC on Saturday
     
  44. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Prediction: This is a wild one. Stay safe but have fun watching! :cheers:
     
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  45. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Wowzers, if only this system hit mid to late August!!! Why, Why now on the last weekend of the season :(

    IMO Spencer's will reach peak depth for the season/year at the end of next week - 2m mark very high potential to be cracked......if this continues as current 4 day is predicting.....
     
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  46. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    The real season is about to start :D on the MR
     
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  47. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    @Sandy would love to hear your "Predictions" on this upcoming system(s)

    Pressure looks VERY low over the alps (Sub 980s), got to be a good thing?
     
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  48. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    That would be highly irregular! I think its unlikely to get that high, but real possibility of peak depth, weird.
     
  49. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    I predict I may build a snowman on the block
     
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  50. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    I observe I just booked two nights at the motel .... just in case :D