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Discussion in 'Weather' started by GTB, Sep 21, 2016.
The ridge ahead of the next front is very strong.
In view the BC conditions are not great for the weekend and dont look good over the extended foretasted 336 hrs.
There has been about six very good BC days this year
But I will be on top of Hotham. I just need to gulp down some breakfast, grab lunch and daypack and skis.
And then go hard all morning, have lunch at 2pm, and ease out of the day.
Rock solid on Axs R this morning.
There's no pressure >1020hpa on that chart. That's the kind of thing I like.
the problem i have is the work out i give the snooze button whilst forcing myself out of the cold tent/car/hut that destroys my time. Good plan though. my see you at Hotham yet depending on road closures about the place.
snooze button on a pow day???
Yer nah/EC on the lighter end of the progged precip scale.
I know i know, im a bad human being.
That is the beauty of BC though, You can generally get away with it.
Not on a pow day
Up to 125mm forecast by BOM for Thredbo top station over the next week. Looks cold and wet. Hume Dam now almost full at 97% capacity. More systems rolling in over coming weeks.Looks like lots of flooding.
Very conservative IMO
I cannot see anything less than 2 feet at Perisher albeit very wind loaded over the course of Thursday - Saturday
Any predictions on if the resorts will extend through next week given it's school holidays?
Sorry CC I know it's slightly off topic, but technically it is a 'prediction'
Before the Season Pass thing, I would have predicted this was a sure thing at Perisher, but now I predict that they would wonder about the upside for them, they might predict that it will be mostly be Season Pass holders? But then again I predict there is still another week of school hols?
Edit: syntax for prediction thread
Radar showing black on rain band bout to hit Adelaide
Falls Creek closing this Sunday.
Could be upwards of 100 mm falling up there over the course of the next 7 days.
Jane upping the ante this morning.
CC raised earlier shear as a limiting factor to substantial falls. I somewhat agree with you but the winds aloft look far from ideal. It's not a shoo-in, IMO.
Spot on IMO.
Axs is suggesting better temps on Friday night IMO. Still snow to about 1500m. definitely warmer come Saturday.
They are predicting strongest winds in 50 years in South Australia
Thinking here mid thursday morning will be the start of the big dump over the alps.
That's how it looks to me too.
Looking outside at the moment, blue sky day, perfect temps.
Calm before the storm.
Beautiful morning, but the northerly is starting to pick up now.
Is it starting to look a little drier on Friday morning now (Melbourne)?
WARNING - Porn alert
Potential follow up creeping in on the 4 day run?
Melbourne will be in rainshadow for most of the event IMO. We'll get some at the beginning (late tonight) and at the end, but not a huge amount in the middle. That's pretty standard when the low passes right over the top of us.
Thursday looking like a classic NW special - Perisher & Thredbo top are going to get flogged (and later on Selwyn)
Wonder if once the cold air arrives will Thredbo get another large dump similar to that big one earlier in the season......
yep. with the wind this thing's carrying there will be some BIG numbers reported. BIG wind loading on leeward aspects. Suits all the northern resorts.
This looks like a direct hit over the snowies.
I cant recall a system like this. So its hard to predict. If it hits like this over the Alps and hangs around, it could be over 50 cm in a single event.
Needs a name. Are we sticking with Cyclone Caroline (CC) or is there an official name.
Predictions in this thread only. Use the observations thread for obs.
Updated Vic BOM SWW
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for DAMAGING WINDS and HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in the Central, Mallee, South West, Northern Country, North Central, North East and Wimmera Forecast Districts.
Issued at 10:59 am Wednesday, 28 September 2016.
A complex, developing low pressure system approaching from the west with an associated trough is expected to reach northwest Victoria late on Wednesday.
DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 50 to 60 km/h with peak gusts of around 100 km/h are expected to develop across western districts late Wednesday with gusts reaching 110 km/h in elevated areas and with thunderstorms. These winds are expected to extend eastwards to central and eastern districts early Thursday morning.
HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is likely to develop across the Mallee and Wimmera districts Wednesday night, extending to the Southwest and central districts overnight, and the North East district during Thursday morning. Rainfall totals of 10-25 mm are likely across most districts with isolated totals of 50 mm possible. In the North East district totals of 20-50 mm are expected with isolated totals of up to 80 mm. This rain is also likely to fall within a 6-9 hour period. Thunderstorms may also result in locally higher falls.
Wind and rainfall are expected to ease from the west later in the morning.
Locations which may be affected include Mildura, Horsham, Warrnambool, Bendigo, Shepparton, Seymour, Maryborough, Ballarat, Geelong, Melbourne, Wodonga and Wangaratta.
WOW, THIS IS A MONSTER WITH 4 HEADS (on Friday am)
About to smash through Adelaide now.
Stay inside til Friday Morning (massive pow alert), anywhere above 1000m should be great for skiing and crap for driving. Stay safe
Don't know were your riding but i haven't hit many BC tracks the last few years. Still no excuse, Im off to the corner to sit down and think about what i have done.
BOM 4 day chart with two events.
I will take the snow, swell and floods please as it beats bushfires. Low foretasted to cross ALPS. Stay safe and have fun
Hotham, probably not BC on Friday and BC on Saturday
Prediction: This is a wild one. Stay safe but have fun watching!
Wowzers, if only this system hit mid to late August!!! Why, Why now on the last weekend of the season
IMO Spencer's will reach peak depth for the season/year at the end of next week - 2m mark very high potential to be cracked......if this continues as current 4 day is predicting.....
The real season is about to start on the MR
@Sandy would love to hear your "Predictions" on this upcoming system(s)
Pressure looks VERY low over the alps (Sub 980s), got to be a good thing?
That would be highly irregular! I think its unlikely to get that high, but real possibility of peak depth, weird.
I predict I may build a snowman on the block
I observe I just booked two nights at the motel .... just in case