Predictions 28th - 30th September

Discussion in 'Weather' started by GTB, Sep 21, 2016.

  1. tele-whippet

    tele-whippet beard stroker
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    Take your AT skis for a paddock tootle.
     
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  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    EC/YerrNah going for VIC snow from the get-go tomorrow.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    #northerly #adiabaticcooling
     
  3. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    That Friday morning Hotham sidecountry. Sigh...
     
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  4. Boodwah

    Boodwah Dedicated Member
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    Plan to be there. Packing a chainsaw and travelling via Omeo. The Hunt for White October II...
     
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  5. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Resort country too!
    Mick Chopps will be about too.
    Really jealous :(
    But me....
    Still working of course...with one non bending knee
     
  6. dawooduck

    dawooduck Pool Room
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    Youch, what is happening with the knee ?
     
  7. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Dedicated Member
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    ...and the thigh. Massive fluid :eek:
     
  8. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Over shot the landing at....


    Nah
    Tramampoline with 4yo
    Flare up of old injury from the parkrat days in France. Never did get a scan.
    Better now, still a bit too ginger.
    Might try for next weekend if followup delivers.
    Got to have 1 day this season!

    On topic....I still reckon this is a 50cm storm
     
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  9. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Yep, although that thigh is a bit stronger -the other knee had an even better job on it in Canada late 90s...
    Skinny leg.
    Half-pipe days
    Should try landscaping with it. Not fun, prolonged heal period.
    /end
    Sorry off topic.
     
  10. dr80

    dr80 Well-Known Member
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    Likewise :)
     
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  11. Seafm

    Seafm Dedicated Member
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  12. jungfrau

    jungfrau Well-Known Member

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    Are temps a concern Sat?
     
  13. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Be a few around by the sounds of it! @PiedPiper
     
  14. blueandwhite

    blueandwhite Active Member

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    To my uneducated eye Friday seems like it might be a fair bit windier than previously forecast and the volume of fresh snow pre-Friday looks to have dropped away a bit with the majority potentially falling on Friday itself now under whiteout conditions. Would be interested to hear some more educated opinions on how Friday is shaping up now we are only one day out. Specifically Falls Creek ;)
     
  15. dawooduck

    dawooduck Pool Room
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    Personally, if this was winter I would have the car packed for a Friday departure and aiming for one good day and hoping for two.

    Sunday could surprise
     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Snow above 1500m in NSW resorts IMO.
     
  17. warrie

    warrie Active Member

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    BoM says 1400 m for Saturday so not much difference...W
     
  18. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates Dedicated Member

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    It's been blowing non-stop all night in FC. Temps haven't dropped overnight with clear stuff after 04:00 & getting heavier.
     
  19. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    as expected.
     
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  20. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates Dedicated Member

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    I was expecting that the village power would go down at 04:00 too. That didn't happen but there's plenty of life left in this storm.
     
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  21. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Friday at Falls with limited terrain would be hard going if white out.
    Walkies at Hotham on the other hand. Gullies/trees allow good definition.
    Anyways, I'm revising my prediction down to 35cm
    With loading on the Lee, high wind and not much of anything for snow to stick on on the ridges it will be double deep in drifts
     
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  22. neck_deep

    neck_deep Active Member

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    Any revised thoughts on the road conditions/safety for this arvo. Trying to decide between Hotham and Thredbo. Still a silly idea to aim for alpine way up to Thredbo?
     
  23. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Sunday is the concern temp wise
     
  24. dr80

    dr80 Well-Known Member
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    Given the snow level not being all that low and it coming from the north, I expect you'd be right with 4WD and chains.
     
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  25. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Or could be slush...
     
  26. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    See you up there.
     
  27. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates Dedicated Member

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    Just turned into heavy flakes at Falls which are settling on everything.
     
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  28. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    And chainsaw
     
  29. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
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    Wow, just saw this!! Currently 973hPa. Probably the lowest I've ever seen in that location.
    It would be better if the centre was/will be located slightly further south, in Bass Straight rather than western Vic.
    Also, it seems to have already peaked in SA.

    If it was a month earlier, I'd be saying 50-60cm+
     
  30. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Yep, hook to far north.
    Bizarro
     
  31. Chondro

    Chondro Dedicated Member
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    Eye seems to be coming straight for us in mildura.
    We had an amazing light show last night pretty windy now
     
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  32. neck_deep

    neck_deep Active Member

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    Is this thing fizzing for the snow fields or am i being impatient. Tassie is coping the wrap around and the east coast is being pumped but the alps are missing it for the time being.
     
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  33. PiedPiper

    PiedPiper Well-Known Member

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    Dare i say the familiar story of NSw will still do well, Vic get skunked - again.

    Anyone care to predict the open/closed status of the harrietville road to hotham tonight around 11pm?
    I'm happy to drive in poor conditions, but i dont want to arrive and discover it's closed.
    Going via omea is gonna make it so long as to not make it worthy...
     
  34. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    impatient.
     
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  35. neck_deep

    neck_deep Active Member

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    I'll hold you to it. ha ha
     
  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    IMO with the Northerly trajectory of the active core we're seeing quite a lot shadowing from the Flinders (SA) and drying through Western Riverina (NSW). I don't see anything to suggest 2 foot of snow out of this now - to me that was our best case scenario if it made landfall through Mount Gambier/William corridor.
    I think 25-35cm is our best case scenario now IMO.
     
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    It's still sucking a far bit of moisture down from the North.

    [​IMG]
     
  38. telecrag

    telecrag Part of the Furniture
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    Quoted to double like, look at that sucker!
     
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  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Interesting that yr.no did a 12:45pm update. Wondering if they are going 6 hourly now? (normal updates are 6am / 6pm AEST)
     
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  40. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    Still can't sneeze at those predicted cumulative totals for the death throws of September
     
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  41. SnowBound

    SnowBound Dedicated Member

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    ^^ THAT my friends is one of the most beautiful satellite pics I've seen of Australia.

    (unless you're caught in it)
     
  42. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    as previously suggested - a chainsaw might prove usefull , might add a shovel as well. Snowfall was never an issue for this weekend , treefall and landslip are the issues on the Alpine Way especially around the numerous cuttings along the way. That said so far only 20mm in the rainbucket and wind not especially strong , yet , until you get up high. Drove the road today with no problems.
     
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  43. jungfrau

    jungfrau Well-Known Member

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    Is it just me or does tomorrow look like rain below 1800?
     
  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    FL around 1800m so snow down to 1600/1700m IMO.
     
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  45. Nowada

    Nowada Well-Known Member

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    30mm in the gauge since it turned to snow and still 30cm to fall at Perivail before Sunday, according to yr.no.
     
  46. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    For those who were wondering about a name for this monster, 'Donald'

    [​IMG]
     
  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Yeah, all hot air up until this point.;)