Predictions 28th - 30th September

POW_hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
22,447
34,784
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
EC/YerrNah going for VIC snow from the get-go tomorrow.
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meteogram.png

#northerly #adiabaticcooling
 

The Plowking

Part of the Furniture
Ski Pass
Aug 15, 2000
18,201
11,478
813
Bonbeach, Vic
Resort country too!
Mick Chopps will be about too.
Really jealous :(
But me....
Still working of course...with one non bending knee
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The Plowking

Part of the Furniture
Ski Pass
Aug 15, 2000
18,201
11,478
813
Bonbeach, Vic
Youch, what is happening with the knee ?
Over shot the landing at....


Nah
Tramampoline with 4yo
Flare up of old injury from the parkrat days in France. Never did get a scan.
Better now, still a bit too ginger.
Might try for next weekend if followup delivers.
Got to have 1 day this season!

On topic....I still reckon this is a 50cm storm
 
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blueandwhite

One of Us
May 26, 2016
830
2,304
263
TQY
To my uneducated eye Friday seems like it might be a fair bit windier than previously forecast and the volume of fresh snow pre-Friday looks to have dropped away a bit with the majority potentially falling on Friday itself now under whiteout conditions. Would be interested to hear some more educated opinions on how Friday is shaping up now we are only one day out. Specifically Falls Creek ;)
 

dawooduck

relaxed and comfortable
Ski Pass
Oct 26, 2002
69,955
57,617
1,525
Mountains
Personally, if this was winter I would have the car packed for a Friday departure and aiming for one good day and hoping for two.

Sunday could surprise
 

The Plowking

Part of the Furniture
Ski Pass
Aug 15, 2000
18,201
11,478
813
Bonbeach, Vic
To my uneducated eye Friday seems like it might be a fair bit windier than previously forecast and the volume of fresh snow pre-Friday looks to have dropped away a bit with the majority potentially falling on Friday itself now under whiteout conditions. Would be interested to hear some more educated opinions on how Friday is shaping up now we are only one day out. Specifically Falls Creek ;)
Friday at Falls with limited terrain would be hard going if white out.
Walkies at Hotham on the other hand. Gullies/trees allow good definition.
Anyways, I'm revising my prediction down to 35cm
With loading on the Lee, high wind and not much of anything for snow to stick on on the ridges it will be double deep in drifts
 
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neck_deep

Addicted
May 10, 2011
422
238
113
5 hours from Hotham
Any revised thoughts on the road conditions/safety for this arvo. Trying to decide between Hotham and Thredbo. Still a silly idea to aim for alpine way up to Thredbo?
 

dr80

One of Us
Ski Pass
Oct 8, 2012
1,158
732
363
Vic surf coast
Any revised thoughts on the road conditions/safety for this arvo. Trying to decide between Hotham and Thredbo. Still a silly idea to aim for alpine way up to Thredbo?
Given the snow level not being all that low and it coming from the north, I expect you'd be right with 4WD and chains.
 
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Sandy

Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
Moderator
Ski Pass
Jan 1, 1998
70,025
27,855
1,515
Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
@Sandy would love to hear your "Predictions" on this upcoming system(s)

Pressure looks VERY low over the alps (Sub 980s), got to be a good thing?
Wow, just saw this!! Currently 973hPa. Probably the lowest I've ever seen in that location.
It would be better if the centre was/will be located slightly further south, in Bass Straight rather than western Vic.
Also, it seems to have already peaked in SA.

If it was a month earlier, I'd be saying 50-60cm+
 

The Plowking

Part of the Furniture
Ski Pass
Aug 15, 2000
18,201
11,478
813
Bonbeach, Vic
Wow, just saw this!! Currently 973hPa. Probably the lowest I've ever seen in that location.
It would be better if the centre was/will be located slightly further south, in Bass Straight rather than western Vic.
Also, it seems to have already peaked in SA.

If it was a month earlier, I'd be saying 50-60cm+
Yep, hook to far north.
Bizarro
 

PiedPiper

One of Us
Feb 17, 2010
898
659
263
Melbourne Vic
Is this thing fizzing for the snow fields or am i being impatient. Tassie is coping the wrap around and the east coast is being pumped but the alps are missing it for the time being.

Dare i say the familiar story of NSw will still do well, Vic get skunked - again.

Anyone care to predict the open/closed status of the harrietville road to hotham tonight around 11pm?
I'm happy to drive in poor conditions, but i dont want to arrive and discover it's closed.
Going via omea is gonna make it so long as to not make it worthy...
 

POW_hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
22,447
34,784
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
IMO with the Northerly trajectory of the active core we're seeing quite a lot shadowing from the Flinders (SA) and drying through Western Riverina (NSW). I don't see anything to suggest 2 foot of snow out of this now - to me that was our best case scenario if it made landfall through Mount Gambier/William corridor.
I think 25-35cm is our best case scenario now IMO.
 

Kelpieboy

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jun 27, 2015
2,700
7,329
363
Tooma , NSW
Any revised thoughts on the road conditions/safety for this arvo. Trying to decide between Hotham and Thredbo. Still a silly idea to aim for alpine way up to Thredbo?
as previously suggested - a chainsaw might prove usefull , might add a shovel as well. Snowfall was never an issue for this weekend , treefall and landslip are the issues on the Alpine Way especially around the numerous cuttings along the way. That said so far only 20mm in the rainbucket and wind not especially strong , yet , until you get up high. Drove the road today with no problems.
 
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