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Discussion in 'Weather' started by GTB, Sep 21, 2016.
Take your AT skis for a paddock tootle.
EC/YerrNah going for VIC snow from the get-go tomorrow.
That Friday morning Hotham sidecountry. Sigh...
Plan to be there. Packing a chainsaw and travelling via Omeo. The Hunt for White October II...
Resort country too!
Mick Chopps will be about too.
Still working of course...with one non bending knee
Youch, what is happening with the knee ?
...and the thigh. Massive fluid
Over shot the landing at....
Tramampoline with 4yo
Flare up of old injury from the parkrat days in France. Never did get a scan.
Better now, still a bit too ginger.
Might try for next weekend if followup delivers.
Got to have 1 day this season!
On topic....I still reckon this is a 50cm storm
Yep, although that thigh is a bit stronger -the other knee had an even better job on it in Canada late 90s...
Should try landscaping with it. Not fun, prolonged heal period.
Sorry off topic.
Are temps a concern Sat?
Be a few around by the sounds of it! @PiedPiper
To my uneducated eye Friday seems like it might be a fair bit windier than previously forecast and the volume of fresh snow pre-Friday looks to have dropped away a bit with the majority potentially falling on Friday itself now under whiteout conditions. Would be interested to hear some more educated opinions on how Friday is shaping up now we are only one day out. Specifically Falls Creek
Personally, if this was winter I would have the car packed for a Friday departure and aiming for one good day and hoping for two.
Sunday could surprise
Snow above 1500m in NSW resorts IMO.
BoM says 1400 m for Saturday so not much difference...W
It's been blowing non-stop all night in FC. Temps haven't dropped overnight with clear stuff after 04:00 & getting heavier.
I was expecting that the village power would go down at 04:00 too. That didn't happen but there's plenty of life left in this storm.
Friday at Falls with limited terrain would be hard going if white out.
Walkies at Hotham on the other hand. Gullies/trees allow good definition.
Anyways, I'm revising my prediction down to 35cm
With loading on the Lee, high wind and not much of anything for snow to stick on on the ridges it will be double deep in drifts
Any revised thoughts on the road conditions/safety for this arvo. Trying to decide between Hotham and Thredbo. Still a silly idea to aim for alpine way up to Thredbo?
Sunday is the concern temp wise
Given the snow level not being all that low and it coming from the north, I expect you'd be right with 4WD and chains.
Or could be slush...
See you up there.
Just turned into heavy flakes at Falls which are settling on everything.
Wow, just saw this!! Currently 973hPa. Probably the lowest I've ever seen in that location.
It would be better if the centre was/will be located slightly further south, in Bass Straight rather than western Vic.
Also, it seems to have already peaked in SA.
If it was a month earlier, I'd be saying 50-60cm+
Yep, hook to far north.
Eye seems to be coming straight for us in mildura.
We had an amazing light show last night pretty windy now
Is this thing fizzing for the snow fields or am i being impatient. Tassie is coping the wrap around and the east coast is being pumped but the alps are missing it for the time being.
Dare i say the familiar story of NSw will still do well, Vic get skunked - again.
Anyone care to predict the open/closed status of the harrietville road to hotham tonight around 11pm?
I'm happy to drive in poor conditions, but i dont want to arrive and discover it's closed.
Going via omea is gonna make it so long as to not make it worthy...
I'll hold you to it. ha ha
IMO with the Northerly trajectory of the active core we're seeing quite a lot shadowing from the Flinders (SA) and drying through Western Riverina (NSW). I don't see anything to suggest 2 foot of snow out of this now - to me that was our best case scenario if it made landfall through Mount Gambier/William corridor.
I think 25-35cm is our best case scenario now IMO.
It's still sucking a far bit of moisture down from the North.
Quoted to double like, look at that sucker!
Interesting that yr.no did a 12:45pm update. Wondering if they are going 6 hourly now? (normal updates are 6am / 6pm AEST)
Still can't sneeze at those predicted cumulative totals for the death throws of September
^^ THAT my friends is one of the most beautiful satellite pics I've seen of Australia.
(unless you're caught in it)
as previously suggested - a chainsaw might prove usefull , might add a shovel as well. Snowfall was never an issue for this weekend , treefall and landslip are the issues on the Alpine Way especially around the numerous cuttings along the way. That said so far only 20mm in the rainbucket and wind not especially strong , yet , until you get up high. Drove the road today with no problems.
Is it just me or does tomorrow look like rain below 1800?
FL around 1800m so snow down to 1600/1700m IMO.
30mm in the gauge since it turned to snow and still 30cm to fall at Perivail before Sunday, according to yr.no.
For those who were wondering about a name for this monster, 'Donald'
Yeah, all hot air up until this point.