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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by GTB, Sep 21, 2016.
I hope not, but it is possible. The cold pool behind it looks solid though.
It would take a big high pressure. current High pressure forecast is 1018 hpa. So fairly weak.
From the EC side, MSLP looks nice, 500mb is looking alright. EC is going with the cutoff into a Tasman Low IMO. This situation could produce a dump.
GEM looks cold but has the similar ridging that GFS has going on. Which won't produce a dump.
GEM is giving us 10-15cm for the Main Range IMO. Not looking great in Vic except for peaks. This is if the ridging occurs.
GFS looks to be good precipitation wise. The cold front needs to line up with the precipitation band out to the Tasman, hopefully not ridge out. The incoming high looks big but with a lowish MSLP. Cold pool is likely to follow but with snow guns off for season, it's useless.
Spag plot giving a nice node, looking cold and well lined up.
With Buller done, this could have nice skiing on the groomers for closing weekend for the other 4. But the BC on GF weekend could produce the goods, especially on the Main Range, 50/50 on the Victorian Alps.
I would wait until Sunday or Monday or even later to make a conclusion though.
Didn't get a chance to attach this this morning.
Worthwhile now simply to accompany Jellybeans great piece of work above.
Have been waiting all year for this. Hope it happens.
Bears somewhat confused in your Predictions....
BOM forecasting next Thursday 29th Sept with rainfall in Wangaratta to max out around 20mm followed by rain Friday..
is this a big event unfolding in the later part of next week...catchments are saturated in NE..
a big event rain ganna send the place even crazier..how many days of sustained rain do Forum members see happening...what totals may eventuate if all degenerates in this system..
I'm talking snow potential. Unfortunately it may well come with to much rain for my home town of Wang. Yes everything is now saturated there and crops are starting to look like swimming pools.
This year and the way it has gone , the models won't really be trusted till Tuesday . IMO.
The one thing I am seeing , and well illustrated here ^^ is a lot of agreement that something significant will go down.
Just depends where it will bomb , which is always the deal.
My advise to Team Bears is pack the wet weather gear and also be prepared to stay home sharpen some chains.
Edit : sorry it is looking cold too
Please don't say that; we want this one to happen. Jane says yes, so it must be coming true, right?
850 temps (1300m ish for the alps) from AXS G.
Only posting because it's any easy read for this punter weather watcher @chriscross , there are plenty of others .....
Check the Spring Weather thread for some confidence .
umm , the associated rain with this , as it stands right now , would be devastating for NE Vic and SE NSW farmers and graziers alike. My property cannot take any more rain now.
While most of my stock are either sold or en route to be sold which leaves me in relative safety financially for the season , restocking would become problematic as I just dont have enough dry ground for placement. Talking to others in this and surrounding districts most are not as fortunate with many graziers still standing large volume of their stock due to lack of available transport or the ability to get the stock to transport pens. Farmers , especially wheatgrowers are particularly nervous and are basically waiting for rust and other diseases to occur to the crop which may dramatically reduce their yield for the season. Canola growers are also in a difficult position due to the fact they are about half way through the flower stage of growth and cant see anyway to reap the crop in the forseable future. This may turn what should have been a bumper crop into a very below average yield. Some areas will do ok and some wont , such is the natuer of the business. Really what we need now is 12 - 14 days of nil rainfall.
I live above Broken River and Lake Nillahcootie can't take anymore significant runoff. My four dams are over full and one flooded my driveway to the point I took a boat to town. I am saving as much water as I can though.
In other words, this amount of rain could threaten my house
1300m ish is the vibe I am getting from the commercial forecasters too. Most charts are fairly consistent with this too. Like I said before, I wouldn't be jumping to conclusions. All I can commit to is a couple of cm on a couple of peaks in the Alps.
Expect the equivalent to a Cat3 warm core cyclone, wind gusts will be potent with this polar low jelly. Any region within the circumference of the wind field outside the 540dam line will likely see big totals falling as rain.
Now I need to secure the trees around the house and sandbag too
Thanks for the chart though.
Wow. Feeling for you mate.
This is bit more first hand from one of " us " .
Hard yards on the land just get harder when you cant physiclly get the flock out of there to cut or avoid the losses.
Best wishes bud.
Best looking system of the season.
Still time for the downgrades...
Cheers nfip , I am ok, with the exception of the logistics arising from the need to restock for next season, because I acted early on advice recieved/interpreted from medium/long range forecasting. Others however may not have acted quickly enough and are now having some difficulties. Croppers are the ones with a potentially serious situation in front of them going foreward through spring.
Sad times when your house gets threatened and I feel for you mate. My dams passed 120% about a month ago and now all rain is just spillwater for me , in lay terms its just wasted water on my land.
Good luck to you too mate.
Up in Crookwell it hasnt stopped raining for 4 months and it's as green as. Everything is saturated. Been great for tree planting. Not heavy rains just consistent constant light rain. Often not on the radar. Very few sunny days in that time. Drive down to Goulburn and its totally different weather.
Good year as a analog,was post elnino and also a strong -IOD.
Looking likely u may be sucking on a fat one.
i have no vested interests in models,
Geez, maybe the touring season will be better than the resort season this year.
Hotham are closing this weekend. Maybe going early. What's the precedent for opening back up again after closing? I'd prefer they stay closed tbh, skinning out of Heavenly Valley on Grand Final day is quite appealing.
won't reopen IMO
I've seen them close with still over 2 meters of cover. Cost a fortune to stay or reopen for the amount of revenue they would get.
Brunt/Vaisala -0.32 gotta love fluid dynamics, buoyancy in the parcel model is not suggesting any chance here of a ridged out system. Infact its' indicating even lower thickness level.
Every indication this is going to be big. Not great for the flood situation IMO
This. I like the sound of Golden Point if I can put in some effort
BOM going for a max of -3 for top of Thredbo on Friday.
Everything I have seen since yesterday(charts, outlooks, human opinion, etc) is gales and a dump of snow. And heaps of rain. It least I can use all this water coming down but not good for the farmers at all. Expecting the Bureau to come out with many flood warnings on Monday and Tuesday. On the plus side, accomodation looks like it will get cheaper in the Alps. Booking Hotham for Wednesday and Tuesday nights with camp gear in tow for days after.
That maybe veryyy conservative if ALL the models hold true , for instance have a close look @GFS/18z@21zulu
So if this comes off how low are we looking at it snowing? I get down there Wednesday. What day will be best for a ski? It looks like it will be pretty wild on the Thursday and Friday
I definitely like the position of the 540dam line. Looks very cold ATM and precipitation is good too. It will either be a dump (30cm+) or a good fall (15-30cm). Charts are going for the dump ATM
Weekend is the best opportunity for skiing. I would say it could go to 1000m or even lower but I wouldn't hold my breath for that, as that's best case scanario. Go on the weekend though, could be best BC skiing of season IMO
Go for it, I'll take the low hanging fruit!
Wow that's a lot of charts. Thanks, do you work for Delta? Are these the ones you use?
i use these and others.
I am not happy. Its not bloody clearing.
I have eyeballed other models with a core hpa as low as 970'smb interesting few days ahead,kite ski UP a mountain reverse fuzzy logic or maybe a few of those J bond ski mobiles be kool. .
Make a interesting GF weekend if it slow's or stalls CC, stronger it is in GAB more chance of a hasty poleward drift.
I found it the Japanese charts
Anyway, JMA is giving us good precipitation levels (for snow, not for farmers) . And snow level on noon 29th is above the resort level for all the resorts, sitting at 1400-1500m
Hopefully a lot of snow as this will mean less run off for flood waters. The last thing the farmers want is 100mm of rain in the high country. Snow now would mean a decent thaw over the next month or so instead of all at once over the next day or so.
If my knee was OK...