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Predictions 28th - 30th September

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by GTB, Sep 21, 2016.

  1. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Plenty of spring for that if this system holds true
     
  2. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    It's pretty universal over the charts that the precipitation is there for up to 50mm ATM
    The only factors are temps and winds.
    [​IMG]
    GFS good for 1200m later on IMO.
    [​IMG]
    Windy... Gale force. From GFS, Northern Heavy Winds on Thursday across Alps (Good for resorts on North side of Dividing Range). On GFS Friday, Wind North to West direction, not as big as first wave.

    [​IMG]
    Winds look just as strong on EC but looking Southerly later on in the storm.
    [​IMG]
    GEM with the ferocious northerlie front and then westerlies (shit for Buller) and then the southerlie wind. Eye to pass north Bass strait.
    [​IMG]
    Temp anomaly looks nice and cold as the front comes in.
    [​IMG]
    Just to add the MSLP for GEM and precipitation numbers look big for that main front. Notice the 540dam line in one blob in the middle of the system, over most of the alps. Probably not ideal for the good powder.
    [​IMG]
    Tropopause Theta with a good node for 29th with Antarctic link
    [​IMG]
    Spag with a nice cold node but a bit of ridging there.
    [​IMG]
    GEFS giving us a 'deep cold hole' at 500mb. Looking like a very cold system here looking at these uppers.

    Overall, I am getting the impression we are getting at least 10-15cm from this IMO but if the stars align, we could be in for a dump. It's cold, It's got the precipitation, and the best BC spots are in alright positioning for the winds. Dumps will be localised and will depend on the first front being cold enough for snow.

    The ridging of the system may occur which will leave Saturday and Sunday clear (maybe, watching timing for next front) for BC. If it slowly goes out... it will
    No worry for me, if there's enough snow, I'm skiing but Melbourne folk may need to watch this space in case this system stalls and it doesn't clear for GF weekend. :( Enjoy the rest of Saturday though!
     
    C:'s and jeffx like this.
  3. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    [​IMG]
    WOW 972mb eardum pain


    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]

    EC is loading slow but you get the picture here.
     
    #103 jeffx, Sep 24, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2016
  4. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dump!
     
  5. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    If I wasn't leaving Jindy on the 28th:(:(
     
  6. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    Some snap shots EC track atm.

    [​IMG]
    Weather starts 28th.

    [​IMG]
    Intensify's overnight off the coast.


    [​IMG]
    Moves N over VIC then tracks NNE.

    [​IMG]
     
    #106 jeffx, Sep 24, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2016
    The Plowking likes this.
  7. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    @Jellybeans1000
    I know you guys love snow,but don't take the EC solution lightly this is shaping up as a major and possibly very dangerous weather system.
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  8. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    I definitely hear what your saying, I will relay any problems from where I am. I got two options anyway, stay in a house that has flood risk or go up to the Mountains with lightning and gales. I will take the latter on the personal scale but everyone is different.

    P.S. If you are NOT PREPARED for major storms (talking to the general public who are reading this), do not go up into the mountains and definitely DO NOT ATTEMPT to go skiing during a storm of cyclonic velocity. Don't want anyone to die please.
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  9. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Now now.
    Let's not get too excited.
    4 day rule hasn't even been reliable this season, still a way out.
    (though looking epic!)
     
    snowblowa, mick chopps and Jellybeans like this.
  10. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes although I dont think the models have been so solid this far out in their agreement across the board this year.
     
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  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Certainly looking at cyclonic strength winds (that in itself may reduce rainfall) at this stage.
    Lets leave it a couple of days before getting too worried about it though.
     
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  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  13. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  15. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    hint of ridging?
     
  16. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Does look like there might be a bit of a blow with this one , brings its own problems but may lessen the precipitation a little , swapping one devil for another I guess.
     
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  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Perhaps.
    Although, the best trajectory for a low, to deliver snow is to follow Bass Strait as GFS has it now.
     
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  18. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hmmm trees down? after all this wet soil...
     
  19. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    With saturated ground and strong winds forecast for this system I wouldnt be parking under any solid trees.
     
  20. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    snap
     
  21. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    GFS 06 is still a little beast dont see ridging others are pointing too.
    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
     
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  22. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Chk chk boom.
     
  23. C:'s

    C:'s First Runs

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    I love when resort season finishes with a bang..... happy days ahead
     
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  24. xuěboarder

    xuěboarder One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I cant seem to pick it this year..
    Have a overnight falls trip booked for Thursday / friday.. looks like wind hold, great!!
     
  25. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Plenty surface lifts at Falls.
    If you can get over there!

    Seriously, this has got 60+ cm written all over it. Wind loading on se facing slopes could be massive.
    Next few weeks look like more.
    Those usual spring Victorian se bowls might be ridable into November.
     
  26. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    Looking sweet... Windy(Cyclonic), Snow to at least 1500m (probably lower), and some rain. Ridging on all models... biggest ridging on GFS, IMO this is required for a clear GF weekend
     
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  27. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    This looks like a dump and the next node also looks like a good fall. This can take us to November
     
  28. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Do they still plow the GAR when the resort is closed? Got a bed in Albury on Thursday night, wondering if better served going up via Omeo and sleeping in the car?
     
  29. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    [​IMG]
    One would expect to see localised totals likey @double.
     
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  30. Boodwah

    Boodwah A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes but less enthusiastically. It's actually a major commercial route. I'm hoping the snow doesn't start too early Thursday...
     
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  31. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    There is no ridging over 28-29-30 in VIC its all low hpa as per the model jelly,A ridge should build in latter after the system moves east.

    [​IMG]
     
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  32. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yikes...
    It is a little monster
     
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  33. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Stay later!!
     
  34. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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  35. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    Indeed,EC/GFS looking almost identical locking this in now, looking a easier forecast now for the Bom, ie VIC canola,wheat,and nsw sw cotton belts.
    [​IMG]
    ,.


    [​IMG]
     
    #135 jeffx, Sep 25, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 25, 2016
  36. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep.
    Is hwy.
     
  37. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Omeo.
    Be trees down other approach for sure
     
  38. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    But 2016.
    #2dayrule
     
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  39. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    If only I could. Need to be back at the Central coast for my son's 21st the following day. Duty calls.
     
  40. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Hopefully.

    High BC Conditions.


    The first high is too weak and ridging.

    [​IMG]

    I can spot a small high at 234 hrs

    [​IMG]

    A cold front than

    Than a better more stale high again at 336hrs.

    [​IMG]
     
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  41. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah that was what I was meaning ridging over the weekend to clear for that weak high. Depending on several factors, the next front is due late Sunday/Monday
     
  42. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    It is only looking worse for spring conditions, as SAM(or AAO) is looking to decrease into the negatives which means the systems go further up to the mainland and increase the likelihood of ridging and weak highs, as the only times to go BC for a day or two. I hope this is untrue but I don't think we will see any long periods for BC.
     
  43. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ridging high is exactly what could work for me for the weekend....
     
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  44. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Seems like it could have a lengthy stall/ rotation period on GFS.
     
  45. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    Should be cleared out and stable by Saturday models have this moving quickly, The other system behind as per the ens falls flat.

    [​IMG]




    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]
     
    #145 jeffx, Sep 25, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 25, 2016
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  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    BOM officially on board.

     
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  47. Louie

    Louie A Local

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    Yet the Melb 7 day forecast has wind speeds topping out at 35km/hr for second half of week.....
     
  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking good.
    Nice season starter right there.
     
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  49. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    Seeing a few high-lighted Season Pass Gold under id's is this A Wonker chocolate bar gold pass type of thing.


    [​IMG]
    'inches'
     
    #149 jeffx, Sep 25, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 25, 2016
  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Lets see what the afternoon forecast says. BOM tends to be conservative this far out.
     
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