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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by GTB, Sep 21, 2016.
Plenty of spring for that if this system holds true
It's pretty universal over the charts that the precipitation is there for up to 50mm ATM
The only factors are temps and winds.
GFS good for 1200m later on IMO.
Windy... Gale force. From GFS, Northern Heavy Winds on Thursday across Alps (Good for resorts on North side of Dividing Range). On GFS Friday, Wind North to West direction, not as big as first wave.
Winds look just as strong on EC but looking Southerly later on in the storm.
GEM with the ferocious northerlie front and then westerlies (shit for Buller) and then the southerlie wind. Eye to pass north Bass strait.
Temp anomaly looks nice and cold as the front comes in.
Just to add the MSLP for GEM and precipitation numbers look big for that main front. Notice the 540dam line in one blob in the middle of the system, over most of the alps. Probably not ideal for the good powder.
Tropopause Theta with a good node for 29th with Antarctic link
Spag with a nice cold node but a bit of ridging there.
GEFS giving us a 'deep cold hole' at 500mb. Looking like a very cold system here looking at these uppers.
Overall, I am getting the impression we are getting at least 10-15cm from this IMO but if the stars align, we could be in for a dump. It's cold, It's got the precipitation, and the best BC spots are in alright positioning for the winds. Dumps will be localised and will depend on the first front being cold enough for snow.
The ridging of the system may occur which will leave Saturday and Sunday clear (maybe, watching timing for next front) for BC. If it slowly goes out... it will
No worry for me, if there's enough snow, I'm skiing but Melbourne folk may need to watch this space in case this system stalls and it doesn't clear for GF weekend. Enjoy the rest of Saturday though!
WOW 972mb eardum pain
EC is loading slow but you get the picture here.
If I wasn't leaving Jindy on the 28th
Some snap shots EC track atm.
Weather starts 28th.
Intensify's overnight off the coast.
Moves N over VIC then tracks NNE.
I know you guys love snow,but don't take the EC solution lightly this is shaping up as a major and possibly very dangerous weather system.
I definitely hear what your saying, I will relay any problems from where I am. I got two options anyway, stay in a house that has flood risk or go up to the Mountains with lightning and gales. I will take the latter on the personal scale but everyone is different.
P.S. If you are NOT PREPARED for major storms (talking to the general public who are reading this), do not go up into the mountains and definitely DO NOT ATTEMPT to go skiing during a storm of cyclonic velocity. Don't want anyone to die please.
Let's not get too excited.
4 day rule hasn't even been reliable this season, still a way out.
(though looking epic!)
Yes although I dont think the models have been so solid this far out in their agreement across the board this year.
Certainly looking at cyclonic strength winds (that in itself may reduce rainfall) at this stage.
Lets leave it a couple of days before getting too worried about it though.
hint of ridging?
Does look like there might be a bit of a blow with this one , brings its own problems but may lessen the precipitation a little , swapping one devil for another I guess.
Although, the best trajectory for a low, to deliver snow is to follow Bass Strait as GFS has it now.
Hmmm trees down? after all this wet soil...
With saturated ground and strong winds forecast for this system I wouldnt be parking under any solid trees.
GFS 06 is still a little beast dont see ridging others are pointing too.
Chk chk boom.
I love when resort season finishes with a bang..... happy days ahead
I cant seem to pick it this year..
Have a overnight falls trip booked for Thursday / friday.. looks like wind hold, great!!
Plenty surface lifts at Falls.
If you can get over there!
Seriously, this has got 60+ cm written all over it. Wind loading on se facing slopes could be massive.
Next few weeks look like more.
Those usual spring Victorian se bowls might be ridable into November.
Looking sweet... Windy(Cyclonic), Snow to at least 1500m (probably lower), and some rain. Ridging on all models... biggest ridging on GFS, IMO this is required for a clear GF weekend
This looks like a dump and the next node also looks like a good fall. This can take us to November
Do they still plow the GAR when the resort is closed? Got a bed in Albury on Thursday night, wondering if better served going up via Omeo and sleeping in the car?
One would expect to see localised totals likey @double.
Yes but less enthusiastically. It's actually a major commercial route. I'm hoping the snow doesn't start too early Thursday...
There is no ridging over 28-29-30 in VIC its all low hpa as per the model jelly,A ridge should build in latter after the system moves east.
It is a little monster
Indeed,EC/GFS looking almost identical locking this in now, looking a easier forecast now for the Bom, ie VIC canola,wheat,and nsw sw cotton belts.
Be trees down other approach for sure
If only I could. Need to be back at the Central coast for my son's 21st the following day. Duty calls.
High BC Conditions.
The first high is too weak and ridging.
I can spot a small high at 234 hrs
A cold front than
Than a better more stale high again at 336hrs.
Yeah that was what I was meaning ridging over the weekend to clear for that weak high. Depending on several factors, the next front is due late Sunday/Monday
It is only looking worse for spring conditions, as SAM(or AAO) is looking to decrease into the negatives which means the systems go further up to the mainland and increase the likelihood of ridging and weak highs, as the only times to go BC for a day or two. I hope this is untrue but I don't think we will see any long periods for BC.
Ridging high is exactly what could work for me for the weekend....
Seems like it could have a lengthy stall/ rotation period on GFS.
Should be cleared out and stable by Saturday models have this moving quickly, The other system behind as per the ens falls flat.
BOM officially on board.
Yet the Melb 7 day forecast has wind speeds topping out at 35km/hr for second half of week.....
Nice season starter right there.
Seeing a few high-lighted Season Pass Gold under id's is this A Wonker chocolate bar gold pass type of thing.
Lets see what the afternoon forecast says. BOM tends to be conservative this far out.