Predictions 28th - 30th September

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by GTB, Sep 21, 2016.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Lates GFS run. Closer to EC

     
  2. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Wednesday they will say it could be windy on Thursday.
     
  3. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    2016 1 day rule in practice
     
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  4. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Even that failed last week.
     
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Come, Thursday night I think one could expect a state of emergency for much of Western Vic water catchment areas. Looking very dire (and serious) if this verifies.
    40mm 3-hour totals 'aint fun at the best of times...
    [​IMG]
     
  6. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Starting to look dangerous. Most of the catchments are that saturated now that 10mm could trigger a flood. This could be very hard going for country Vic.
     
  7. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Que Sera, Sera Ski Pass: Gold

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    My Country - Poem by Dorothea Mackeller

    The love of field and coppice
    Of green and shaded lanes,
    Of ordered woods and gardens
    Is running in your veins.
    Strong love of grey-blue distance,
    Brown streams and soft, dim skies
    I know, but cannot share it,
    My love is otherwise.

    I love a sunburnt country,
    A land of sweeping plains,
    Of ragged mountain ranges,
    Of droughts and flooding rains.
    I love her far horizons,
    I love her jewel-sea,
    Her beauty and her terror
    The wide brown land for me!

    The stark white ring-barked forests,
    All tragic to the moon,
    The sapphire-misted mountains,
    The hot gold hush of noon,
    Green tangle of the brushes
    Where lithe lianas coil,
    And orchids deck the tree-tops,
    And ferns the warm dark soil.

    Core of my heart, my country!
    Her pitiless blue sky,
    When, sick at heart, around us
    We see the cattle die
    But then the grey clouds gather,
    And we can bless again
    The drumming of an army,
    The steady soaking rain.

    Core of my heart, my country!
    Land of the rainbow gold,
    For flood and fire and famine
    She pays us back threefold.
    Over the thirsty paddocks,
    Watch, after many days,
    The filmy veil of greenness
    That thickens as we gaze ...

    An opal-hearted country,
    A wilful, lavish land
    All you who have not loved her,
    You will not understand
    though Earth holds many splendours,
    Wherever I may die,
    I know to what brown country
    My homing thoughts will fly.

    **

    Dorothea Mackeller

    Sorry, not quite off topic.
     
  8. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    This one's also relevant:

    SAID HANRAHAN

    "We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
    In accents most forlorn,
    Outside the church, ere Mass began,
    One frosty Sunday morn.
    The congregation stood about,
    Coat-collars to the ears,
    And talked of stock, and crops, and drought,
    As it had done for years.
    "It's lookin' crook," said Daniel Croke;
    "Bedad, it's cruke, me lad,
    For never since the banks went broke
    Has seasons been so bad."
    "It's dry, all right," said young O'Neil,
    With which astute remark
    He squatted down upon his heel
    And chewed a piece of bark.
    And so around the chorus ran
    "It's keepin' dry, no doubt."
    "We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
    "Before the year is out.
    "The crops are done; ye'll have your work
    To save one bag of grain;
    From here way out to Back-o'-Bourke
    They're singin' out for rain.
    "They're singin' out for rain," he said,
    "And all the tanks are dry."
    The congregation scratched its head,
    And gazed around the sky.
    "There won't be grass, in any case,
    Enough to feed an ass;
    There's not a blade on Casey's place
    As I came down to Mass."
    "If rain don't come this month," said Dan,
    And cleared his throat to speak--
    "We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
    "If rain don't come this week."
    A heavy silence seemed to steal
    On all at this remark;
    And each man squatted on his heel,
    And chewed a piece of bark.
    "We want a inch of rain, we do,"
    O'Neil observed at last;
    But Croke "maintained" we wanted two
    To put the danger past.
    "If we don't get three inches, man,
    Or four to break this drought,
    We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
    "Before the year is out."
    In God's good time down came the rain;
    And all the afternoon
    On iron roof and window-pane
    It drummed a homely tune.
    And through the night it pattered still,
    And lightsome, gladsome elves
    On dripping spout and window-sill
    Kept talking to themselves.
    It pelted, pelted all day long,
    A-singing at its work,
    Till every heart took up the song
    Way out to Back-o'Bourke.
    And every creek a banker ran,
    And dams filled overtop;
    "We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
    "If this rain doesn't stop."
    And stop it did, in God's good time;
    And spring came in to fold
    A mantle o'er the hills sublime
    Of green and pink and gold.
    And days went by on dancing feet,
    With harvest-hopes immense,
    And laughing eyes beheld the wheat
    Nid-nodding o'er the fence.
    And, oh, the smiles on every face,
    As happy lad and lass
    Through grass knee-deep on Casey's place
    Went riding down to Mass.
    While round the church in clothes genteel
    Discoursed the men of mark,
    And each man squatted on his heel,
    And chewed his piece of bark.
    "There'll be bush-fires for sure, me man,
    There will, without a doubt;
    We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
    "Before the year is out."
    John O'Brien
     
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  9. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  10. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    Not for the light hearted...
     
  11. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Que Sera, Sera Ski Pass: Gold

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  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Vic BOM forecast (Hotham)

    Thursday 29 September
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -1
    Max 0
    Rain or snow easing. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 15 to 40 mm
    Chance of any rain: 95% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of rain or snow, most likely in the morning. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Winds northerly 50 to 60 km/h increasing to 50 to 70 km/h during the morning then becoming north to northeasterly and light during the evening.

    Friday 30 September
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -4
    Max -2
    Snow.
    Possible rainfall: 10 to 25 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow. Winds
     
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  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    The amount of shear might limit the amount of falls.
     
  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  15. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    I am worried at the damage that shear can cause, coupled with flood risk :eek:
     
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  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
     
  17. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    As a simple weather observer, what a ripper!
    Sorry those it will cause trouble for of course.
     
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  18. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Direct hit Adelaide.
    Good luck!
     
  19. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Limestone coast is gonna get it, bad.
     
  20. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Skiing on Friday is gonna be fun. Hectic. But fun.
     
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  21. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    [​IMG]





    [​IMG]
    Note there are multi embedded cores in this broad elongated complex low system, The 979mb core tracks NNE
    then SSE Joining into the one system, See plots below and i hope you guys understand what the EC is showing.

    Hope you get the gist of this post jelly since you camping out in the open.



    [​IMG]




    [​IMG]




    [​IMG]

    Been promising myself i would stop posting but i keep coming back:headbang:
     
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  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not quite a 'wx bomb', but with a peak 977hPa prog at landfall it's getting pretty gnarly. Deepening of this significance typically occurs offshore. Eastern SA, Western VIC and SW NSW are in for it.

    Air traffic is going to have one hell of a time with this one Thursday eve through Friday (just in time for the long weekend).
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    #volatile
     
  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Could almost forget snow given the severity of this system but for the lurkers and the lovers, I think we'll see anywhere from 20-55cm of new (wind scourered) snowfall in the resorts. Drifts of +80cm possible IMO.
     
  25. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    If I could.....
    Av gully loops. Occasional beer stop.
     
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  26. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    My luck i fly out to Perf Thursday evening, 6:50pm. Say a prayer.

    Sorry for the off topic. :love:
     
  27. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Probs just ride heavenly or maybe Dargo bowl.
     
  28. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    I am definitely not staying out in the open in this storm. Booked Hotham accom Wed-Fri nights, camp out Sat night in the best part of the high:fishing:. Then go back to flood country before the next cold front on Sunday night.
    A very real prediction.
    Very dangerous conditions out at sea too up the SA East coast.
     
  29. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    What a ride.
    Friday morning the pick.
    Saturday be heavy going with temps coming right up before next front.
     
    #179 The Plowking, Sep 25, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 25, 2016
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  30. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    And VIC surf next weekend ...hmmm.
    Not well aligned or long period obviously but late friday/early Saturday on the west coast and westernport could be OK. Be bloody consistent with that close range.
    Rapid increase, rapid decrease.
    Wind goes back to west then north fairly rapidly.
    Underlying swells from other/earlier system's ?
    Size ?
    This is an epic weather watching system.
     
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  31. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not good for riding Spirit of Tasmania through the storm.
     
  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Follow up system next Mon/Tues will be better for swell (Tues/Wed) IMO. Deep southern origin and offshore.
     
  33. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    I guessing I will have the powder to myself on Thurs/Fri with the BC/resort skiers coming up on Saturday:out:
     
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  34. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Guess again.
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]

    10-20m seas!
     
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  36. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    You and me on HV while GAR closes of snow blockade?
     
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  37. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM going for snow above 1000 M NSW CT's Thursday
     
  38. Funky

    Funky One of Us

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    Yeah, but the Frog doesn't predict this much... (who seriously notes he is having a bet each way when you read his long range prediction...
     
  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    There's been a few of similar magnitude over the winter season, mainly in June.
     
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  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  41. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's the obvious one :)
     
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  42. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Be no one day tripping at this point anyway.
    Be all yours.
     
  43. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    The who?
     
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  44. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Early peakers
     
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  45. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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  46. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  47. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dem pretty weatherzone colours.
    Axs G
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    GFS
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  48. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    *G not updated yet.
    Waiting, waiting....
     
  49. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    NICE :)

    Thursday 29 September

    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 2
    Max 5
    Rain or snow. Possible storm.
    Possible rainfall: 30 to 40 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of rain becoming snow during the morning. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Winds northerly 35 to 45 km/h tending north to northwesterly 40 to 60 km/h during the morning then becoming light during the evening.

    Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 3:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 7 [High]

    Friday 30 September
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -3
    Max 1
    Snow showers.
    Possible rainfall: 15 to 20 mm
    Chance of any rain: 80% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. Areas of morning fog. High (80%) chance of snow showers. Light winds becoming west to northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h during the morning.

    Saturday 1 October
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -2
    Max 3
    Snow shower or two.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
    Chance of any rain: 60% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of snow showers, most likely during the morning. Winds west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h.
     
  50. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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