Predictions 28th - 30th September

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by GTB, Sep 21, 2016.

  1. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  2. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  3. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    it looks that way.
     
  4. rugbyskier

    rugbyskier One of Us

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    This is looking like a repeat of 1974 for Forbes, when the town had around four major floods in three months. This system will result in another big flood on the Lachlan, the ground is saturated and Wyangala Dam is full.
     
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  5. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    All time.
     
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  6. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM are worried, quick chat this morning and they are pretty busy, they are making comparisons to Dec 1 1934. That's big.
     
  7. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well, I'm heading for the NSW South Coast this long weekend. Will the storm be as ferocious down Merimbula way? Add raincoats and Monopoly game to packing list ...
     
  8. 1000m

    1000m Hard Yards

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    Yep saturated here in the southern tablelands. Trees falling down all over the place, big winds will exacerbate that. Paddocks full of water. Will be a good summer.
     
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  9. Chondro

    Chondro One of Us

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    How is the roads around charlton etc going to be ? will they be flooded again? Supposed to go on a bike ride to melbourne friday....
     
  10. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Western VIC and SW NSW look like copping the worst of it, but everywhere looks like it's going to be pounded. I'd put it off.
     
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  11. LaNeige

    LaNeige One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Not looking good for your ride, given there was major flooding in the last week or so. The Calder Hwy, Charlton St Arnaud Road are very likely to be under in a number of locations.
     
  12. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    should be sweet
     
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  13. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Finally a high.
    [​IMG]
     
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  14. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    I had to Google this not being from Melbourne (most dates of significant Sydney weather are in my mind). Interesting reading, I am often surprised and how relatively little rain can do so much damage in those areas (due to, I guess, a combination of extent and topography compared to the 400mm+ ECL totals that are relatively common along the east cost).

    http://pandora.nla.gov.au/pan/96122....au/lam/climate/levelthree/c20thc/flood4.html
     
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  15. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]

    If things come off as per above, there's gonna be flooding in the Murray for weeks. It's got no more storage capacity to soak up.
    Dartmouth and Eildon are gonna be pushing towards 75-80% capacity. And most of the other inland Vic rivers are gonna be spilling.
     
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  16. Chondro

    Chondro One of Us

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    Great. My house is situated on an area where it was underwater with teh 1956 murray floods.

    The river is already real high here, sandbar is gone down at the local swimming area ill go down get some photos over the weekend
     
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  17. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's about accumulation. We've had decent rain events consistently since the beginning of May. That's set the stage for adding to the runoff. The catchments and soils are all saturated, and now, most of the water storages are full (the exceptions being the two biggest in the State - Dartmouth and Eildon). It's the consistent rain events that have created the situation.
    the northern half of the State has managed above average rains since April:
    [​IMG]
     
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  18. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    West and south gippsland dry as a nun's (relatively)..... do you even rain shadow from the NW.
     
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  19. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    They dont feel like it when you go down there for a look though. Just shows how much rain has been falling.
     
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  20. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    wetter than wet.
     
  21. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I remember a quote from a race car driver once 'there's lots of wet water out there on the track'. Dat old wet water.
     
  22. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    dihydrogen monoxide. it'll get ya that nasty stuff.
     
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  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  24. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    [​IMG]
    As explained from the getgo this is water bomb outside the 540d.
     
    #224 jeffx, Sep 26, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 26, 2016
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  25. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    ^^ If that EC forecast comes off, North of the Divide will be......errrrr..... interesting. And that includes where we live.

    Good chance of 2016 Snow Season Mk2 IMO.
     
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  26. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    No flyfishing for us for a while!
     
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  27. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    So good.
    (and bad)
     
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  28. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Season starter, with a potential follow up to consolidate the base and put the rockhopper/s away.....
    Time warp
     
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  29. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Team Bears have been reading this discussion with interest....we gather this is big weather event and not ganna be nice...sounds like rain fall Thursday/Friday will produce falls of 40mm around Wang...not a period to go camping....it appears all quarters agree that rainfall totals will be significant over the two days..:eek:
     
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  30. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    No difference really between the EC/GFS dam 76m is nothing , ACCESSG solution is looking the big outliner atm.

    [​IMG]

    All you can really hope for is the models bust big time.
     
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  31. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    November Skiing could be a reality. :D
     
  32. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    How many anti inflammatory's is your knee away from being right?
     
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  33. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Centre of low should be fine to camp. The eye of the storm.:doh:
     
  34. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    And where will it be centred?over what town. and with that shear what about a roller spin within the stinger jet maybe localised torn's a big possibility with this.
     
    #234 jeffx, Sep 26, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 26, 2016
  35. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    My camp of course :p
     
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  36. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    Here copy the map and you can re-post with the coordinate's of we're the centre will be for a future ref. Grid 4 as the VIC/NSW border.

    [​IMG]
     
  37. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us

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    Putting the snowfalls aside,I am now starting to have concerns about this system and follow up system lining up behind it.
    The forecast of significant wind and rain is likely to cause catastrophic damage and flooding to much of an already soggy Victoria and this time also Melbourne.We back on to a creek that floods after 70mm+ events so could be an interesting Thursday - Friday coming up.Stay safe people.
     
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  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Today's 4-dayer

    [​IMG]
     
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  39. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    thats yesterdays????

    Not sure just checking
     
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  40. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Always the highest point and closest to the fall line in x,y, z.:yum:

    What co-ordinates are you using . I use GDA 1994 zone 55 at AHD.
     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    You're right, I thought it updated. Late today.
     
  42. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Yeah i was just about to post but it has not updated.:thumbs:
     
  43. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    not late. just not early. it does say it's updated between 2-3pm daily, even if it' usually earlier than that.
     
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  44. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    So snowy mountains is at 4 (x) and 4 (y). I have seen the chart before. Bom needs a cyclone track like chart
     
  45. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Is that cause they are taking lunch early or are they calculating extra parameters in there minds. Time for a Tim Tam.
     
  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Just later than normal.
     
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  47. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Over in another forum they are drawing comparisons with late-Sept 1996. That was a very late peak season.
     
  48. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Everytime I look I can't help thinking of this.

    [​IMG]
     
  49. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    What formula are you using to measure the polygons for the topographical datasets.
    For me y4=142.29.E
    x1=34.86.S
    and after that anyone's guess
     
    #249 jeffx, Sep 26, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 26, 2016
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  50. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    :woohoo: Frog is happy