Predictions 28th - 30th September

Tanuki

Part of the Furniture
Ski Pass
Sep 29, 2010
11,739
7,787
813
Our house is covered by a flood overlay, if it looks like we'll be predicating anything near 75m I'll be down a Port Melbourne beach tomorrow or Wednesday morning filling sandbags for my front door
 
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7wombathead

One of Us
Aug 4, 2010
1,911
1,598
363
South
In all honestly I would not camp in the alpine during this event and on the weekend. It looks ridging and windy over the weekend too.

The center of the storm looks the best to ride with the least wind.

gfs_z500_mslp_aus_17.png



With clearing back country conditions later next week.
 

Claude Cat

On my bike
Moderator
Ski Pass
Jul 6, 2001
129,579
84,560
3,525
Canterbury, Vic
IMO both GFS and CMC have this peaking over SA, with Adelaide getting a direct hit; with the system weakening as it passes over the SE (00z runs)

gfs_z500_mslp_aus_fh54-120.gif
gem_z500_mslp_aus_fh54-120.gif
 

jeffx

Hard Yards
Aug 17, 2016
261
462
93
I would like to see the BOM follow the UK and name these cold core cyclones for future records.

Selection_043.jpg

cmc is a three pronged attack in a cyclonic gyre.
 

dawooduck

relaxed and comfortable
Ski Pass
Oct 26, 2002
69,955
57,619
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LOL ... I got all the camping gear out for a lovely weekend on our block in Jindy ..... should I put it all away ?

Drive down friday night, motel Friday night, Saturday setup camp, Monday pull down ...
 

jeffx

Hard Yards
Aug 17, 2016
261
462
93
IMO this is gonna be a memorable system....possibly for snow, but probably for wind, rain, and damage.
yeah iam thinking more so for possible flooding i posted the brunt-vaisala model a few days ago the model was showing the whole parcel as water charged.
Selection_017.jpg



Selection_044.jpg


When all that cold air mass interact's with the warmer air on the boundary its also likey the coastal area's will see severe thunderstorms.
 

Kelpieboy

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jun 27, 2015
2,700
7,329
363
Tooma , NSW
Should I be looking for alternatives to the Khancoban – Thredbo road late Thursday?
Where are you coming from ?
As a local of the area and regular user of the Alpine Way between KC and Thredbo I would offer this advice to anyone thinking of using this road during the expected conditions. The ground is saturated already with more rain expected so 2 things come to mind that may( it is my opinion will) cause travellers extra problems 1, Landslip is very highly likely and may cause road blockages - many , many blind corners so you might not see it till its too late. 2. Treefall is almost certain to occur and with the same problem of blind corners.
Add to that the possibilty of snowfall down to 800m would mean that you would encounter snow/possible ice covered roads throughout the journey ( much of it is above 1000m) with a very high chance that snow/ice conditions would exist from Loading ramp to Cascades ( approx 20km) and beyond. Add to this last section of road the added hazzard of treefall and you have the recipe for disaster for anyone , including experienced locals.
Would I be going up at that time ? Not very likely unless there was an extreme reason to do so.
 

POW_hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
22,449
34,785
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
BOM SA getting in early (I personally haven't seen sheep grazier warnings issued 3-4 days before a system).
http://www.bom.gov.au/sa/warnings/sheep.shtml

IDS20242

Warning to Sheep Graziers
for the Mount Lofty Ranges, West Coast, Lower Eyre Peninsula, Eastern Eyre Peninsula, Yorke Peninsula, Kangaroo Island, Flinders, Mid North, Riverland, Murraylands, Upper South East, Lower South East, North West Pastoral and North East Pastoral forecast districts

Issued at 4:45 pm CST on Monday 26 September 2016.

Sheep graziers are warned that cold temperatures, rain and showers and strong west to southwesterly winds are expected to develop over the warning area during Wednesday and continue into Thursday. There is a risk of losses of lambs and sheep exposed to these conditions.

The next warning will be issued by 11:00 pm CST Monday.
 

CarveMan

I Never Slice
Ski Pass
May 12, 2000
83,197
62,253
1,515
Les Hautes Montagnes
aussieskier.com
LOL ... I got all the camping gear out for a lovely weekend on our block in Jindy ..... should I put it all away ?

Drive down friday night, motel Friday night, Saturday setup camp, Monday pull down ...
Was just discussing with Donna on FB whether I should come visit with our tent.....he said it could be a little damp, chilly and breezy....
 

dawooduck

relaxed and comfortable
Ski Pass
Oct 26, 2002
69,955
57,619
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Was just discussing with Donna on FB whether I should come visit with our tent.....he said it could be a little damp, chilly and breezy....

I have everything ready for car camping, even hired an XTrail as the Euro Corolla doesn't handle tussock but if it is nuts weather we will be sleeping at JRE motel. We will still be marking out the build site and building a fire pit and dinking about.

I even have a poop bucket .....

There are plenty of sheltered spots.
 

CarveMan

I Never Slice
Ski Pass
May 12, 2000
83,197
62,253
1,515
Les Hautes Montagnes
aussieskier.com
I have everything ready for car camping, even hired an XTrail as the Euro Corolla doesn't handle tussock but if it is nuts weather we will be sleeping at JRE motel. We will still be marking out the build site and building a fire pit and dinking about.

I even have a poop bucket .....
Awesome I'll let you know. I need to be in CBR on the Monday, and we have the Friday as a pub hol, so it makes sense to drive up via the mountains, but not if it's a cyclone. Would love to camp with you in ideal circumstances but a motel sounds good too....
 

telecrag

Old n' Crusty
Ski Pass
Oct 12, 2007
31,863
47,095
1,063
@dawooduck you will be fine, remember, what doesn't kill you makes you strong. I am heading out the back with 4 disabled skiers on Sunday, its going to be fun. IMO it will all be aftermath style after Friday. Wouldn't it be ironic though, if the only time I needed chains this season was…...
 
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dawooduck

relaxed and comfortable
Ski Pass
Oct 26, 2002
69,955
57,619
1,525
Mountains
I still have two days on my Thredbo ticket. Only skied one magnificent day this season but .... things to do.

TBC and BWD can keep me warm
 
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Jellybeans

Part of the Furniture
Ski Pass
Aug 24, 2015
12,855
20,633
813
Canberra
@dawooduck you will be fine, remember, what doesn't kill you makes you strong. I am heading out the back with 4 disabled skiers on Sunday, its going to be fun. IMO it will all be aftermath style after Friday. Wouldn't it be ironic though, if the only time I needed chains this season was…...
It should be all fine after Friday Night......
 
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