Predictions 28th - 30th September

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by GTB, Sep 21, 2016.

  1. Tanuki

    Tanuki A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Our house is covered by a flood overlay, if it looks like we'll be predicating anything near 75m I'll be down a Port Melbourne beach tomorrow or Wednesday morning filling sandbags for my front door
     
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  2. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    In all honestly I would not camp in the alpine during this event and on the weekend. It looks ridging and windy over the weekend too.

    The center of the storm looks the best to ride with the least wind.

    [​IMG]


    With clearing back country conditions later next week.
     
  3. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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  4. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    Jesus. 967?
     
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  5. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dreamin'.... there is SFA out there.
     
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  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  7. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    If I worked in an office.....
    It's farked.
     
  8. neck_deep

    neck_deep Addicted

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    Should I be looking for alternatives to the Khancoban – Thredbo road late Thursday?
     
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I think you might seriously question why you'd be on any country road Thursday afternoon, unless there was a serious need to do so. IMO
     
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  10. neck_deep

    neck_deep Addicted

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    Pow Friday Morning. Though maybe we need to re-evaluate and camp near Wodonga for the night.
     
  11. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Stay at home and stay safe kind of event I think. Bottle of port and a good book.
     
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  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Not sure camping is a great idea either. Cyclonic winds are not to be toyed with.
     
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  13. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    [​IMG]
    no real changes of note.
     
  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO both GFS and CMC have this peaking over SA, with Adelaide getting a direct hit; with the system weakening as it passes over the SE (00z runs)

     
  15. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    For something like this, weakening can only be a good thing.
     
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  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Still looks horrific for South Australia.

     
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  17. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    There is a certain right-hander not to far from Port Lincoln that could be all time.
     
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  18. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    I would like to see the BOM follow the UK and name these cold core cyclones for future records.

    [​IMG]
    cmc is a three pronged attack in a cyclonic gyre.
     
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]

    For all you watching at home...that's +120km/h winds AGL. SES will be flat stick along the coastal fringes of SA.
     
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  20. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I think they have had enough this year in S.A.
     
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  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  22. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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  23. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bom forecasting snow, heavy at times to 800 m for Snowy Mountains Friday.
     
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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Phenomenal.
     
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  25. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    Gusts may be damaging up high too on peaks
     
  26. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    For sure. IMO
     
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  28. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    @+78hrs
    [​IMG]


    @+90hr mark.

    [​IMG]

    Gets a bit scary when the power goes out, get prepared for this now.
     
    #278 jeffx, Sep 26, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 26, 2016
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  29. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Got a load of sand today, sandbagging tomorrow
     
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  30. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO this is gonna be a memorable system....possibly for snow, but probably for wind, rain, and damage.
     
  31. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    LOL ... I got all the camping gear out for a lovely weekend on our block in Jindy ..... should I put it all away ?

    Drive down friday night, motel Friday night, Saturday setup camp, Monday pull down ...
     
  32. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    (except for 120khr winds!)
     
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  33. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    yeah iam thinking more so for possible flooding i posted the brunt-vaisala model a few days ago the model was showing the whole parcel as water charged.
    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]

    When all that cold air mass interact's with the warmer air on the boundary its also likey the coastal area's will see severe thunderstorms.
     
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  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    As a side note, I am not a fan of the Tasman heating up like that Jeffo. ECL breeding ground.
     
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  35. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    Jeffx loves gnarly ECL's.
     
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  36. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Take your paddle arms
     
  37. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  38. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Where are you coming from ?
    As a local of the area and regular user of the Alpine Way between KC and Thredbo I would offer this advice to anyone thinking of using this road during the expected conditions. The ground is saturated already with more rain expected so 2 things come to mind that may( it is my opinion will) cause travellers extra problems 1, Landslip is very highly likely and may cause road blockages - many , many blind corners so you might not see it till its too late. 2. Treefall is almost certain to occur and with the same problem of blind corners.
    Add to that the possibilty of snowfall down to 800m would mean that you would encounter snow/possible ice covered roads throughout the journey ( much of it is above 1000m) with a very high chance that snow/ice conditions would exist from Loading ramp to Cascades ( approx 20km) and beyond. Add to this last section of road the added hazzard of treefall and you have the recipe for disaster for anyone , including experienced locals.
    Would I be going up at that time ? Not very likely unless there was an extreme reason to do so.
     
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  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    For a cool system there's some big temp anomalies.
    [​IMG]
     
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  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM SA getting in early (I personally haven't seen sheep grazier warnings issued 3-4 days before a system).
    http://www.bom.gov.au/sa/warnings/sheep.shtml

     
  41. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    If you can drive it :eek:
     
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  42. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Was just discussing with Donna on FB whether I should come visit with our tent.....he said it could be a little damp, chilly and breezy....
     
  43. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    I have everything ready for car camping, even hired an XTrail as the Euro Corolla doesn't handle tussock but if it is nuts weather we will be sleeping at JRE motel. We will still be marking out the build site and building a fire pit and dinking about.

    I even have a poop bucket .....

    There are plenty of sheltered spots.
     
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  44. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    exactly
     
  45. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Awesome I'll let you know. I need to be in CBR on the Monday, and we have the Friday as a pub hol, so it makes sense to drive up via the mountains, but not if it's a cyclone. Would love to camp with you in ideal circumstances but a motel sounds good too....
     
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  46. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    @dawooduck you will be fine, remember, what doesn't kill you makes you strong. I am heading out the back with 4 disabled skiers on Sunday, its going to be fun. IMO it will all be aftermath style after Friday. Wouldn't it be ironic though, if the only time I needed chains this season was…...
     
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  47. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    I still have two days on my Thredbo ticket. Only skied one magnificent day this season but .... things to do.

    TBC and BWD can keep me warm
     
    #297 dawooduck, Sep 26, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 26, 2016
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  48. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    It should be all fine after Friday Night......
     
  49. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah I'm wondering if we just drive on Friday.
     
  50. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    And then hit the snow on Saturday. There will be fresh tracks somewhere on the Main Range :)