Predictions 28th - 30th September

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by GTB, Sep 21, 2016.

  1. neck_deep

    neck_deep Addicted

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    Coming up from geelong. Can always come up from the other side but a lot longer drive. Looks like a motel regardless on Thursday night. Would play where I no (hotham way) but the lack of cover resulted in a fishing trip over the weekend.
     
  2. phrozen

    phrozen Hard Yards

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    Guess i'll be battening down the hatches up here in Mildura Wednesday night ;)
     
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  3. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Are you kidding me? This is going to be the biggest dump of snow for 2016 and on the last weekend of the season - isn't that irony for you
     
  4. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    Jane is on the conservative side for this one.
     
  5. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    'a little'
    lel!
     
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    With rain totals in the mix for Thursday AM it seems pretty bang on to me.
     
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  7. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think she's probably right.
    Direct hit Adelaide.
    50cm for mountains I reckon.
     
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  8. Wally

    Wally One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    The best paddling/rafting season since early 2000s IMO! My arms/shoulders are nackered.
    I predict the Blue Duck Hotel to have less people this year on GF day due to less paddlers/folks up there due to the rain/river height
     
  9. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Rain and wind on the current cover and then 50cm is the perfect situation for avalanches IMO. Know what your doing if going out back.
     
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  10. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    Iam thinking 60+cm for the duration.
     
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  11. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Conservative IMO
     
  12. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    Thats for the 2days ...... out to the 5th of O then i figure a combined total of 130+cm.
     
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  13. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    And a load of flooding and a couple of sheds overturned
     
  14. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    I was looking @ some long range modelling jelly, i don't buy into them but its a crazy year and looking back-end loaded. The 9th-11 GFS progs another howler.

    [​IMG]

    Like whats next a white xmass sounds crazy but,
    It snowed in 1965 and again in the early 1970's on Mt Sugarloaf which On the Gold Coast it has been reported that in July 1984 5cm of Christmas Day 2006 it snowed in North Dandenong, Melbourne.
     
    #314 jeffx, Sep 26, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 26, 2016
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  15. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    looks jucy on Access R

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    If your driving through dead horse early on Thursday the best. Friday morning will be slow.

    The main range too windy on the weekend.

    [​IMG]
     
  16. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    God knows why they use UTC Time on Australian regional chart. +10 Hrs
     
    #316 7wombathead, Sep 26, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 26, 2016
  17. Teisto

    Teisto One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think I'm looking forward to it. Might be tough going for the kids. I'm also working on whether I should get chains to get around with the snow levels even though I have an AWD.

    Also thinking the best way to get from Jindy to Merimbula on Saturday? Any suggestions?
     
  18. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Chains a must for this weekend IMO
     
  19. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Always ALWAYS travel with chains.
    I used to have a Land Rover Discovery 3 and used to laugh at the very suggestion of chains, till i almost got myself into a world of hurt heading to falls creek one year. Since then i always carry them. I now drive an AWD audi, need them more now than ever.

    The moment you become complacent is the moment it can all go wrong. Why take a risk when you can easily protect yourself.
     
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  20. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks heavy, could have some big potential. I am focusing on this storm ATM but will take a closer look at the next node in the next few days.

    And the Christmas snow.... a question as old as time itself (in SH). Current climate models make it look fairly unlikely for this to occur below 2228m. But maybe your onto something. Will take a good look after this flood crisis and dump some numbers and opinion here.
     
  21. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dandenong North has a max elevation of 91m ASL. In 2006 I lived about 5mins from Dandenong North, and i'm sure I would have remembered if it had snowed, because my house was higher than Dande North and directly NE from that suburb, and I dont remember it snowing. You sure you're not talking about Mt Dandenong?
     
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  22. craigl56

    craigl56 Hard Yards

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    Cyclones don't have cold fronts CC ;-p
     
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I bet they do. ;-P
    If you're in the tropics you may be partially right.
     
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  24. skichic

    skichic A Local

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    All depends on brown mountain. If it's closed due to snow I would suggest the road through dalgety could be also. Could be the long way round trough Queanbeyan.
     
  25. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Flying in to Albury fri morn
     
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  26. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sage advice, but I kinda think we are all getting a little ahead of ourselves here. The BOM forecast looks to be a downgrade in terms of moisture, so its hard to imagine brown mountain closed.
     
  27. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Axs R, not sure this is a downgrade[​IMG]
     
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  28. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Easily 2ft storm TM written all over it
     
  29. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    All cold core ULL cyclones are frontal CC is correct. Also as Pow_hungry pointed out warm core tropical cyclones are non frontal is 100% percent correct.
     
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  30. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Minty vibe™ :)
     
  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM Southern Tablelands:
     
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  32. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Could be a relatively breezy cold but clear weekend
     
  33. 1000m

    1000m Hard Yards

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    Doesn't look quite cold enough on their temperature forecasts yet. Find it needs to get under 2c and more out of town. Laggan, Roslyn, McAlister, Redground might cop some snow.
    Main worry is with the waterlogged soil (5 months of rain), trees are falling down all over the place atm already. With high winds and any snow loads it'll be tree carnage.
    Weir at Goulburn had minor flood levels last week so with 50mm of rain and Pejar & Sooley full will be interesting to watch. Wyangala also full.
     
  34. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    [​IMG]
    12z tight core.

    [​IMG]

    cores left embedded

    [​IMG]

    nice white beard on the ull 'cyclone'
     
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  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Uppers are more than cold enough come Friday AM.
    -12@750mb & -30@500mb
    Strong NW wind will only further lower FL.
     
  36. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    satellite this morning
     
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  37. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    http://wikiski.com/wiki/index.php/Unusual_snow_events_in_Australia

    I will take your word on it, heavy hail storm?
     
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  38. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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  39. 1000m

    1000m Hard Yards

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    Yeah its been a bit hit n miss here this year for snow, mostly rain and when it snows not much settling.
    Ok so you think it'll be colder than they forecast then we should see some of the white stuff.
     
  40. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Jane still fence sitting a touch but has bumped things up from yesterday.
     
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  41. xuěboarder

    xuěboarder One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bom doesn't seem to be getting on the winds? 30-40 isn't bad
     
  42. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    is that knots or kms?
     
  43. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us

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    This is as close SA and Vic will get to a cyclone.
     
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  44. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    [​IMG]

    You are looking @+2foot snow storm here ...2m temps@-3f ..alp temps will be twice as low, with the low pressure.
     
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  45. Teisto

    Teisto One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    That was my thinking too. Not having done the drive and thinking what could be sketchy. Would prefer brown mountain than a long trek back to Canberra

    I'll get some chains to hire. No good on the Saturday when I have to give them back and drive to Merimbula though.
     
  46. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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  47. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Knts or Kmh ??
     
  48. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Klms.
     
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  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Depends where you are. You are correct that the winds over central & eastern Victoria and southern NSW are not that bad - the system is peaking over eastern South Australia / western Vic - the winds will be significant there, without any doubt IMO.
     
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  50. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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