Predictions 28th - 30th September

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by GTB, Sep 21, 2016.

  1. xuěboarder

    xuěboarder One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sorry, should have included kms.
    This is for falls, maybe starting to allow myself a sense of security in regards to lifts running !!
     
  2. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lol Knts vs Kmh = Scary vs Not Scary
     
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  3. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just have to look at those charts mick and jelly posted for Thursday. The isobars over eastern SA are pretty snug. :eek:
    Having said that the BOM can be on the conservative side in their wind speeds for the Snowy Mountains sometimes.
     
  4. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's gonna be windy as ****. IMO
     
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  5. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    From Thu - Sunday predict wind have gusts of 50Knts for Mt P
     
  6. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bears predicting the low will centre itself over Mt Buffalo..:(.not sure how they arrived at this conclusion...and will remain stationary for considerable time....:oops:
     
  7. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    I tend to think Access-R is on the money based on its recent forecast performance.

    IMO, 40 - 60 cm of snow at most resorts (especially North of divide).
     
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  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Interesting to see the difference between shear at 10m and 950 hPA levels in GFS
    Given the pressure is going to be down to 980-990 hPa, you'd think the 10m shear would be pretty similar to 950hPa, but it isn't! I'd be using the 950 values as a more indicative indication of winds at ground level.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  9. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Simply.
    More so Radelaide
     
  10. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wouldn't be surprised to see a rare point break near Port Augusta breaking....



    (none probably exist but it might with this system)
     
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  11. Marquise de Kappy

    Marquise de Kappy One of Us

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    Hi those in the know,
    Considering driving down and staying at smigs friday night but would mean a late arrival around midnight. What do people think the road / drive up to perisher would be like. Given I have driven that road on ice and snow a bit, not a lot but always during the day. With the forecast as it stands, do you think it would be manageable?
    Your advice is v much appreciated.
    p.s. I know no one has a crystal ball to be precise.
     
  12. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    It will be very dangerous @Kappy

    4WD if possible
     
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  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nothing overly treacherous Friday night IMO. Just expect a snow covered road - drive to your ability
     
  14. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    You will need chains and you will drive over snow but not really windy or treacherous.
     
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  15. Marquise de Kappy

    Marquise de Kappy One of Us

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    Thanks Foursquare04.Yeah have 4wd. Do you think chains will still be required?
     
  16. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Latest Coastal Weather Observations for Cape Naturaliste
    IDW60701 Issued at 10:43 am WST Tuesday 27 September 2016
    Station Details ID: 009519 Name: CAPE NATURALISTE Lat: -33.54 Lon: 115.02 Height: 109.0 m

    27/10:32am Wind W Speed 29Kn Gust 39Kn ----- Windy
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's a gentle sea-breeze for Cape Naturaliste. It's a Cape so it (and Cape Leeuwin) pick up every morsel of wind in the SW.
     
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  18. 1000m

    1000m Hard Yards

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    x 1.8 for km/hr so 52km/hr with gusts to 70km/hr
     
  19. GTB

    GTB One of Us

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    I think its time to get excited ;)

    Its one of the only times this season the models have been close from that far out. :woohoo::woohoo::woohoo:
     
  20. stansi

    stansi One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    ^^^^^^
    Agree, I'm at Falls now waiting.
     
  21. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    A watched Blizzard never develops! Close your eyes!
     
  22. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    The 967 hpa low is gone from the 4 day charts.

    That is about the only change. But 967 is worthy of a name.

    [​IMG]
     
    #372 7wombathead, Sep 27, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2016
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  23. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep.
    Massiv downgrade...




    Not!
     
  24. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    arguably looks better for snow*

    *in vicco at least.
     
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  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The Beast of the Bight.
    Note the Snow plotted for the Gammon Ranges/Northern Flinders, SA.:eek:
    [​IMG]
     
    #375 POW_hungry, Sep 27, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2016
  26. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Did I say downgrade.

    I just noted a variation.

    :axe:

    :thumbs:

    Hows the orange.

    [​IMG]
     
    #376 7wombathead, Sep 27, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2016
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  27. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    On reflection yesterday's 4 dayer may have always been 987. One of the isobars was in the way and made it tricky to read
     
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  28. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    That is pure porn - where was this system mid to late August
     
  29. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Yeah
    I was thinking that too.

    But check page 6. They had a nice 967 hpa.
     
  30. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Was Barry the last one.

    By rights it has to be named by a Victorian as the last one was named by a NSW person on quiz essential patronage (Donza)

    It has to start with a C, and has to be girl.

    And the first person to name can claim it.

    Since some are calling it a cyclone in Victoria. Maybe it should be called PC Winona-Rider after TC Winston.


     
    #380 7wombathead, Sep 27, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2016
  31. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Kinda like arguing about the difference between Megan Gale and Miranda Kerr :)
     
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  32. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Caroline?
    :evil:
     
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  33. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO, there is a big difference. Age wise.
    Plus one of them is shacked up with a spud, the other one I don't think I could tolerate having to listen to for five consecutive minutes.
     
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  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    stay on topic
     
  35. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM forecasting between 25 and 70mm for Adelaide over the next two days. Their dams are at 92%.
    Could be some decent flooding there. Flood watch in place:

    "
    Rainfall totals with this system are expected to be 30 to 60 mm across the watch area, with some falls of 50 to 100mm possible.

    There is a risk of rapidly rising water levels and flooding in creeks and rivers across the Watch area, in particular The Mount Lofty Ranges from Wednesday afternoon."
     
  36. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Where is this system......... Every 2 weeks.
    (edit; with the centre a touch further east-but not much)
     
  37. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Be a few nervous cray fisherman down Beachport way I'd imagine. Not sure if the season has started again, might be a few boats in dry dock which could very well be the safest place for them...
     
  38. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still in 2012.
     
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  40. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    **like**
    After 2 years of the shittest luck when it comes to conditions and availability of skiing time... finally....
    [​IMG]

    Notwithstanding being windy as ****.... But hey, I'll take that over ****ing boiler plate or rain!
     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    get your licks in fast. More incoming early next week, and then the week after ...
     
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  42. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cricket starting next weekend, then off to Port Douglas. This will be THE chance. I've got 2 years worth of send banked up ready to go!
     
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  43. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Next year I'll have 3 :(
     
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  44. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    The big fire ball South of Perth is on its way
     
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  45. snowduck

    snowduck One of Us

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    Rainfall has already surpassed the yearly average. Flooding expected to be as severe as it was a couple of weeks ago
     
  46. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Reckon more myself.
     
  47. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bears say stay calm..:cool:.. .but keep life jackets ready...
    :eek:that is some satellite picture!!
     
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  48. justride

    justride Hard Yards

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    Was planning on driving Melb - Jindy Thursday leaving Melbourne around Midday.. From all reports here doesn't sound like a smart idea? What will be the best way of getting into Jindy on Thursday night - up through Canberra?
     
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Poor old Adelaide.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  50. NewTurns

    NewTurns One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Long way but the smarter way. Years ago driving up to Thredbo from Melbourne I naively thought the Snowy Mountains Highway would be like a....highway...I guess it is but after dark and in a blizzard you need a serious 4WD, chains and some idea (I had neither of the above).
    In really bad weather like what we are expecting pay the extra time and get there safe....IMO