Predictions 28th - 30th September

Discussion in 'Weather' started by GTB, Sep 21, 2016.

  1. neck_deep

    neck_deep Active Member

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    I'm in the same boat mate and going to wait another day to decide. The only other way i have driven up has been through Bairnsdale, orbost etc. its a bloody long way.
     
  2. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    The inevitable has been posted.
    UPDATE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MID NORTH, MOUNT LOFTY RANGES AND ADELAIDE METROPOLITAN DISTRICT

    Issued at 12:09 pm CST on Tuesday 27 September 2016

    By the Bureau of Meteorology, South Australia.

    A vigorous front followed by an intense low pressure system will affect South Australia on Wednesday and Thursday. A band of rain and thunderstorms likely to extend from the west on Wednesday with the front. Further heavy rainfall is expected on Thursday on the western flank of the low pressure system.

    Rainfall totals with this system are expected to be 30 to 60 mm across the watch area, with some falls of 50 to 100mm possible.

    There is a risk of rapidly rising water levels and flooding in creeks and rivers across the Watch area, in particular The Mount Lofty Ranges from Wednesday afternoon.
     
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  3. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Safest would be via Bairnsdale or Canberra, both the long long way
     
  4. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    The other inevitable flood watchs. Read any that apply to you and react accordingly.
    Flood Watch for North East Victoria (Upper Murray, Mitta Mitta, Kiewa, Ovens and King Catchments)

    Issued at 2:11 pm EST on Tuesday 27 September 2016

    Rain with possible heavy falls and thunderstorms are forecast for the North East catchments from Thursday morning.

    Rainfall totals of 20 to 40 mm are likely, with higher totals of up to 60 mm possible on the ranges. Further rainfall totals of 10 to 20 mm are possible during Friday.

    The North East catchments remain saturated after recent flooding. With the forecast rainfall renewed rises are expected with minor to moderate flooding likely to develop from Thursday afternoon.

    The following flood warnings are current in the North East region:

    Minor flood warning for the Kiewa River.

    The Bureau of Meteorology is continuing to monitor the situation and will issue catchment specific warnings if and when required.

    Note: This Flood Watch means that people living or working along rivers and streams must monitor the latest weather forecasts and warnings and be ready to move to higher ground should flooding develop. Flood Warnings will be issued if the Minor Flood Level is expected to be exceeded at key sites along the main rivers for which the Bureau of Meteorology provides a flood warning service. For detailed explanation see; http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/flood/brochures/flood_watch/flood_watch.shtml

    SES advises that all community members should:

    • Never walk, ride or drive through floodwater,
    • Never allow children to play in floodwater,
    • Stay away from waterways and stormwater drains during and after heavy rain,
    • Keep well clear of fallen power lines
    • Be aware that in fire affected areas, rainfall run-off into waterways may contain debris such as ash, soil, trees and rocks, and heavy rainfall increases the potential for landslides and debris across roads.
    Current Emergency Information is available at http://emergency.vic.gov.au

    For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.

    Current Road and Traffic Information is available at the VicRoads website: http://traffic.vicroads.vic.gov.au/


    Note: This Flood Watch is a heads-up for possible future flooding and is NOT a Flood Warning (see note below)

    Flood Watch for the Goulburn and Broken Basins

    Issued at 2:09 pm EST on Tuesday 27 September 2016

    Rain with possible heavy falls and thunderstorms are forecast for the Goulburn and Broken catchments from early Thursday morning.

    Rainfall totals of 15 to 40 mm are likely, with higher totals of up to 60 mm possible on the ranges. Further rainfall totals of 5 to 20 mm are possible during Friday.

    The Goulburn and Broken catchments remain saturated after recent flooding. With the forecast rainfall renewed rises are expected with minor to moderate flooding likely to develop from Thursday afternoon.

    The following flood warnings are current in the Goulburn Broken basins:

    Minor flood warning for the Broken Creek.

    The Bureau of Meteorology is continuing to monitor the situation and will issue catchment specific warnings if and when required.

    Note: This Flood Watch means that people living or working along rivers and streams must monitor the latest weather forecasts and warnings and be ready to move to higher ground should flooding develop. Flood Warnings will be issued if the Minor Flood Level is expected to be exceeded at key sites along the main rivers for which the Bureau of Meteorology provides a flood warning service. For detailed explanation see;

    http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/flood/brochures/flood_watch/flood_watch.shtml

    SES advises that all community members should:

    • Never walk, ride or drive through floodwater,
    • Never allow children to play in floodwater,
    • Stay away from waterways and stormwater drains during and after heavy rain,
    • Keep well clear of fallen power lines
    • Be aware that in fire affected areas, rainfall run-off into waterways may contain debris such as ash, soil, trees and rocks, and heavy rainfall increases the potential for landslides and debris across roads.
    Current Emergency Information is available at http://emergency.vic.gov.au

    For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.

    Current Road and Traffic Information is available at the VicRoads website: http://traffic.vicroads.vic.gov.au/

    Flood Watch for North West Victoria (Campaspe, Loddon, Avoca and Wimmera Basins)

    Issued at 2:07 pm EST on Tuesday 27 September 2016

    Rain with possible heavy falls and thunderstorms are forecast for the North West catchments from Wednesday evening through to Thursday morning. Rainfall totals of 15 to 30 mm are likely, with higher isolated totals of up to 50 mm possible. Further rainfall totals of 5 to 15 mm are possible during Friday.

    The North West catchments remain saturated after recent flooding. With the forecast rainfall renewed rises are expected with minor to moderate flooding likely to develop from Thursday morning.

    The following flood warnings are current in the flood watch area:

    Moderate flood warning for the Loddon River

    The Bureau of Meteorology is continuing to monitor the situation and will issue catchment specific warnings if and when required.

    Note: This Flood Watch means that people living or working along rivers and streams must monitor the latest weather forecasts and warnings and be ready to move to higher ground should flooding develop. Flood Warnings will be issued if the Minor Flood Level is expected to be exceeded at key sites along the main rivers for which the Bureau of Meteorology provides a flood warning service. For a detailed explanation see

    http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/flood/brochures/flood_watch/flood_watch.shtml

    SES advises that all community members should:

    • Never walk, ride or drive through floodwater,
    • Never allow children to play in floodwater,
    • Stay away from waterways and stormwater drains during and after heavy rain,
    • Keep well clear of fallen power lines
    • Be aware that in fire affected areas, rainfall run-off into waterways may contain debris such as ash, soil, trees and rocks, and heavy rainfall increases the potential for landslides and debris across roads.
    Current Emergency Information is available at http://emergency.vic.gov.au

    For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.

    Current Road and Traffic Information is available at the VicRoads website: http://traffic.vicroads.vic.gov.au/
     
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    SWW going up everywhere

    SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for DAMAGING WINDS and HEAVY RAINFALL
    For people in the Central, Mallee, South West, Northern Country, North Central and Wimmera Forecast Districts.

    Issued at 4:49 pm Tuesday, 27 September 2016.

    WEATHER SITUATION:
    A complex, developing low pressure system is approaching from the west with an associated trough is expected to reach northwest Victoria late on Wednesday.

    DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 50 to 60 km/h with peak gusts of around 90 km/h are expected to develop across western districts later Wednesday or early Thursday morning with gusts reaching 100 km/h in elevated areas. These winds are expected to extend eastwards to central districts during Thursday.

    HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is likely to develop across the Mallee and Wimmera districts Wednesday night. Rainfall totals of 10-25 mm are likely across these districts with isolated totals of 50 mm possible.

    Locations which may be affected include Mildura, Horsham, Warrnambool, Bendigo, Shepparton, Seymour, Maryborough, Ballarat, Geelong and Melbourne.

     
  6. PiedPiper

    PiedPiper Well-Known Member

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    Anyone guess to guess what weather will be like around hotham during the day on friday?
    Considering heading up thurs night - Via Omeo way i reckon, and then maybe doing some self powered Laps of HV during the day on friday....

    Is it gonna be white out wind and snow? or possibly actually in the eye of the storm and a bit quieter...?
     
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  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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  9. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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  10. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    [​IMG]

    That little core that shoots off is buzsaw.
     
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  11. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Going to be dangerous all day Thursday, probably until Friday lunchtime
     
  12. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Monaro
     
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  13. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    That doesn't matter..
     
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  14. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Nope. Waxing skis tonight.
     
  15. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    I'll be there. Same plan. Staying at JB Plain Thursday night.
     
  16. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Yikes. Bring extra pegs for the tent. But I will be in HV first light.
     
  17. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Put mattress in xtrail.
    Or sleep in hut with cozy fire.
     
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  18. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Or just book cheap lodge like me. Dirt cheap prices now the lifts are closed.
     
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  19. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Car or hut. Not tent weather that's for sure.
     
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  20. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    So did this one have a name
     
  21. jungfrau

    jungfrau Well-Known Member

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    Jeez you guys are keen/fit.. Falls still has chairs spinning
     
  22. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Yeah, but steep terrain with base facing se...
     
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  23. jungfrau

    jungfrau Well-Known Member

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    I love HV and see the benefit but how long does the hike out take, do you go via Mother Johnson's?..... I have sat off, you got me thinking.. Have penciled in falls..
     
  24. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    IMO it goes like (Winds are for 1500m ish, windier further up high)
    • Dangerous winds (55-75kph+) and rain over Wednesday night
    • Winds easing (30-40kph) , Rain to Snow lunchtime Thursday.
    • Snow Thurs night, winds 20-40kph
    • Friday 15-30kph, Snow NSW mainly
    • Friday night/Sat Morning 40-70+kph Rain/Sleet below 1800/1900m
    • Saturday lunchtime clearing...
    Wed and Fri night are blustery but other times should be alright. Main concern is snow on road. If you are going up to resorts that have closed, use common sense and put chains on if snow gets thicker than a couple of cm. Don't be stupid. Don't overestimate your driving skills or rush up the mountain just so you can get first tracks (you're not, I am getting them first :p). Drive to the conditions and please don't injure yourself, as there's plenty of snow to go around:cheers:.

    And be careful around flooded areas. Please stay safe.:)
     
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  25. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Winds and the need to dig out lifts at Falls could delay your first tracks....
     
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  26. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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  27. Tanuki

    Tanuki Dedicated Member
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    1/2 boot pack up Imagine is my way, otherwise The Canyon to Mother Johnson return works too
     
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  28. Tanuki

    Tanuki Dedicated Member
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    You really predict rain Friday through Saturday in Vic? That'll scuttle my plans for sure. BOM is still going for 23c on Sunday for smelbourne
     
  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    I reckon Melbourne will miss most of it.
    Rain Thursday morning - showers in the afternoon.
    Friday not too bad, showers overnight into Saturday
    Saturday mostly dry.
     
  30. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    I agree. Will get the coastal stuff after it moves through and goes more sw
     
    #430 The Plowking, Sep 27, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2016
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  31. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Just got some fresh data in and.... 1600m Friday night - 1900m Sat morning- 1700m Sat early afternoon- too warm beyond that. Really warming up Sunday.
     
  32. Tanuki

    Tanuki Dedicated Member
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    Gross, looks like Grand Final in town then
     
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  33. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Got to be there when the weather is happening in Australia, especially spring
     
  34. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    That day is Friday
     
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  35. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    Just pack a sleeping bag in case you need to spend the night in the car. If you don't make it at least you'll have a good story to tell. Road is still being cleared in NSW so you'll have ploughs out and about.
     
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  36. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    *AM
    6 - 12
     
  37. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    A big blob of cold access R for Friday.

    They should all look like this.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  38. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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  39. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    So Jeff , this one doesn't have a name yet?
    Also the 865hpa quote, Is that the lowest pressure cause I am sure that is lower than the Mexican cyclone?
     
  40. neck_deep

    neck_deep Active Member

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    In summary friday pow, Saturday freshies in the right places, sunday corn (please please)? Monday drive home
     
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  41. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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  42. NewTurns

    NewTurns Dedicated Member
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    This is the right plan.
     
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  43. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    After some marginal temps early Thursday, I reckon it will be snowing right up to Saturday night, before clearing off IMO.
     
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  44. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    In summary for me, Tomorrow drive up, Thurs weather forecasting for next week, Friday first light to sunset pow, Saturday sleep in, go to somewhere BC, camp. Sunday skin out, drive out.
     
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  45. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Careful with the corn
     
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  46. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    windy uppers over the week end

    [​IMG]
     
  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Planning on dragging out the glider over the Main Range?;)
    850hPa is more useful IMO.
     
  48. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    From my experience I would say the 700 hpa is more useful for wind gust on the alpine peaks.

    still windy at 850 hpa though.

    [​IMG]
     
  49. neck_deep

    neck_deep Active Member

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    Only question is location and route. Always struggle on the sunrise bc mission but looks like there may be competition.
     
  50. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    You missed the bit where all the fresh white snow is sticky as all get out and you need to actively seek out the slippery brown spring snow. The "Go the brown" period.