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Predictions 28th - 31st July

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by datsnow, Jul 18, 2018.

  1. datsnow

    datsnow Hard Yards

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    Looks to be early signs of some fresh stuff starting as rain on the 27th before a colder air mass comes in. Let’s kick this off.
     
  2. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 12z is in the clouds....


    Wet down low, some snow showers up high. 1016hPa..... not much gonna happen with that number.
     
  3. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS looks mostly wet down low, again some snow showers up high.


    Let's wait this out a few more days.
     
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Not much to see here on the afternoon runs of GFS and CMC
    IMO
     
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  5. Sno Sno SNO

    Sno Sno SNO Hard Yards

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    A long way out but, meh....
     
  6. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    LWT node Not overlapping that well with this system.

    [​IMG]
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    @SAsurfa a repeat IO XXL swell late next week?
     
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking great on EC today. Upper level low pushes through the Sou East region Next Saturday, bringing with it marginal conditions IMO.
    But then on Sunday/Monday we look to see a follow up shortwave bringing moderate falls on the runs this AM. Perhaps to ~1300m.

    EC


    GFS mildly agreeing at this stage. As in The Canadians.
     
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  9. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Must be looking good on EC with some healthy numbers on yr.no this morning....
     
  10. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Is this the 50-100 dump I see mentioned around the traps>?
     
  11. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Much improvement on 18z GFS. Will probably dance about for a few more runs still.
     
  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    lol, who's throwing those sort of numbers around?

    Right now, looks more like 30-50cm system total (prefaced with a warm moist event ahead of the main feature) IMO.
     
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  13. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    I don't think that period is covered in this thread?
     
  14. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    You’re right, but I forgot the other thread was extended... @Claude Cat can move.
     
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  15. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking kinda ridgy on GFS's run this arvo.
    At least it's still there. Some run to run consistency starting to form.
    [​IMG]
     
  17. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    That High doesn't look like it would take much to shove it out of the way.
     
  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    If a 976 CP (cut-off) Low @ 40S eventuates like it does, I am with you. But it's a bit of an anom at this point.

    Even the Canadian wants a piece of the limelight.
    [​IMG]
     
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 00Z run looking really good this arvo. Good duration from Saturday arvo to Monday, on paper.
    Still has some marginal stuff ahead of it on Fri Night/Saturday however.
    Looking good for 20-40cm IMO.

    [​IMG]

    Monday
    [​IMG]
     
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dates of this thread need a tidy up here IMO.
     
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Not really convinced about this one yet TBH.
    IMO
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM's interested in tonight’s release, but AXS looks a bit of a flake yet.
     
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perisher:
     
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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  25. Ryan W Kan

    Ryan W Kan Hard Yards Ski Pass: Silver

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    Is the nasty storm gone? Booked in for the weekend but will cancel if it's going to be a storm...
     
  26. Marquise de Kappy

    Marquise de Kappy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    o_O
     
  27. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Both EC and GFS going for a weird wandering inland low for Friday. Temps a bit marginal for my liking.
     
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  28. foxbat

    foxbat Hard Yards

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    I suppose with recent falls and low temps keeping the cover in good shape i guess rain is our enemy.....is there anything significant over next week or so?
     
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    5-10mm in the alps this week IMO
     
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  30. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    GFS has one Low stalling as the second comes in for a little dance - (binary interaction Fuji potential). EC mildly hinting at something similar. Low percentile but interesting IMO
     
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  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    This one is far from settled, one way or another.
    IMO
     
  32. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Upper wind Anoms seem to be leaving some room to move. Diffluence under Perth could be tricky though IMO. 24 HOURS LATER
     
  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 00z looks big above 1700m over the back end of next. Moisture upgrades here.
    Bit of perfect storm scenario if it were to eventuate.
    This said, models really need to pin-down this cut-off low before anything is locked in though.
    The canuck is in agreement with GFS. AXS is starting to look similar.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    AXS
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  34. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    A lot to like here, when u are on snow for 4 August!!!
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC's talking GFS's language on the 00z run.
    Still marginal but there's agreement for now.
    [​IMG]
     
  36. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm thinking way to warm until it's almost over.
     
  37. Adamski

    Adamski Addicted

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    How about 1st to 5th?
     
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  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Maybe try the BBQ thread as this date Range is to the end of the month.

    EC 00z numbers for Perisher
     
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  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    UK Met reminiscent of GFS & EC this arvo. In fact the trajectory looks similar to the cold pool we saw through Vic/NSW 2 weeks ago - main difference being is this one is moisture laden.

    [​IMG]
     
  40. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    same same , I just arrive on the 4th for week 3
     
  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 06Z staying with it, to run the NSW/Vic border. 10-20cm above 1700m is not out the question for Friday IMO.
    Approaching 100 hours out now...
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Compared to EC
     
  42. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Guess I'm heading back up on Thursday!
     
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  43. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    A little bit marginal for Buller at this stage. Sunday could be good looking at EC.
     
  44. kiter

    kiter One of Us

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    Oh dear looks like this hope cast has fizzed , not much to get excited about for the next 10 days it seems. Oh well the ribs get a chance to heal properly at least
     
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  45. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    Somthing will turn up.
     
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lol. YrNo totals say no dump, and they scatter...

    Not much has changed.
    GFS & The Canuck maintain alignment with the low passing over the alps on Friday, whilst EC sends it North.
    AXS still interested.
    The whole system is on a knife-edge whilst the models determine it's track.
    [​IMG]

    EC:


    GFS:


    The Canuck:
     
  47. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    This looks like we wont have any certaintity till obs such as satelite/radar etc come into play
    IMO
     
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  48. rugbyskier

    rugbyskier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Meanwhile, in YR headquarters in Oslo:

    [​IMG]
     
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  49. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    LOL I admit I've become a bit of a lazy YR watcher. It worked for me superbly last year, planned every snowfall to perfection.
     
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  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    It's pretty damn good, so long as you are aware of the limitations.
     
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