Predictions 28th - 31st July

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by datsnow, Jul 18, 2018.

  1. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Locked in for a weekend at Hotham for this period. To my un-trained eye it looks warm and wet at this stage :cry:
     
  2. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    How does this "warm wet" system play out for NZ a couple of days later, or should I just look on YrN
     
  3. Vincentia guy

    Vincentia guy First Runs

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    I apologise if this isn't the correct sort of question for this forum (knowing it is moderated quite strictly)....Regarding this Saturday and Sunday what are people's thoughts about actually seeing some snow fall?. I'm taking the family to stay at rainbow pines and have a couple days at Selwyn. Just wondering if the kids will be able to see a snow shower over those days in that part of the world. Cheers
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's not strict if you follow the guidelines.;) You've followed them so welcome.

    I reckon you've got a reasonable chance of snow showers above 1500m on Saturday IMO, but it will be wet and fluctuate due to the marginal nature of wind and temps. My tip here is go as high in elevation as you can and you've got a good chance at seeing some snowfall above 1500m. Accumulation in areas of Selwyn will be negligible on Saturday, I think.

    Sunday sees the potential arrival of a cold front/trough, so you're likely to see snow down as low as 1100m by Sunday arvo, but it will be windy IMO.
    Hope that helps.
     
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Friday is the big question mark. RE: Saturday I think there's potential for snow above 1500/1600m with some fluctuation due to winds/temps.
    Sunday is looking like snow at this stage as per the above post. Not locked in though.
     
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  6. Vincentia guy

    Vincentia guy First Runs

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    Thank you for your thoughts!. The last time I went to Selwyn was june 2000 which pretty much had snow on the ground from Adaminaby onwards. Now having to swap chalets in the snow at Thredbo for carvan parks and selwyn now that kids are demanding to go!
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 00z Staying with it. It's got this thing on lock, I reckon.
    With very little variation run-to-run, with it deepening as it moves over the Tasman.
    [​IMG]
     
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  8. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    I'm almost starting to believe.... (4 day rule)
     
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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC still at odds against other models, flicking this through mid-SA and through inland NSW.
    [​IMG]
     
  10. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS showing some more signs of snow for Sat night into Sunday on this afternoons run. Freezing level though...
     
  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    If GFS had it's way on the 00z, it'll snow from Friday into next Tuesday. Problem is, it's GFS and I wouldn't trust it much past Saturday (yet) IMO.
     
  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM's into it. Albeit ~5cm a day. Still above 1500m IMO
    [​IMG]

     
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  13. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Friday and Saturday meh on UKMO.


    Basically UKMO, EC and AXS vs GFS and GEM/CMC.
    I'll back the former horse for now.

    Compared to Sunday....
     
  14. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC on Sunday....

    Okay, but not great for snow down low.

    Tuesday looking much better.
     
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    No doubt about it Sunday to Tuesday look better, but Friday is dicey one to get out of the way first.
     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Splitting hairs I know, but AXS is based on UKMET.
     
  17. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Fair enough, IIRC just the core. They both create different output however.
     
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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah I find they usually differentiate in the LR. Short-range is usually not too dissimilar.
     
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  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sun-Mon shaping up well on EC 12z this morning. Plenty cold with snow down to ~900m Monday AM. Healthy pressure (low of 1004hPa). WSW flow.
    Looking like 10-25cm for the majors IMO.


    There's potential for a Buller, BB surprise on the back-end Monday arvo IMO.

    Speculatively, another weakening front due Tuesday as well.
    The outlook for August looks healthy in my books with some good ingredients of late - moisture, cold air, clearing Highs it's all there. Cracking season thus far.
     
  20. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sold, I'll take it!
     
  21. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The BOM Thredbo forecast has snow every day for the next week (albeit at differing temps).
     
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  22. Lifes2good

    Lifes2good One of Us

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  23. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    18Z GFS looks nice and cold for 1st-2nd August. -4c at 850 HPa makes me sit up and take notice.
     
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  24. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    I am a fan of positive IOD winters. Less moisture, yes, but less pineapples as well. Has also been a noticeable lack of pre-frontal rain.

    Agree 100% with POW_hungry. Cracking season.... if you’re not a famer looking to the sky for rain.
     
  25. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

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    At one stage was looking like it, now just ya standard extra-large number haha. It's been so insanely active.
     
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  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    100%
    The peak of the LWT between Heard Island & SW WA has been ridiculously consistent. It'd be rad to analyse the anoms through there this season.
     
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  27. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

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    Will be able to in a month or two :)
     
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  28. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    4 Day in. Not sure what to make of friday, but Sunday looks interesting.

    Friday could deliver up high for North and West aspects that have been wind scoured the last 10 days, while we had a bit of a LWT wave passing over the SE Australia.

    [​IMG]
     
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  29. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    While certain Aspects could be loaded up by this.
    [​IMG]
     
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  30. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Sunday looks cold enough on almost every forecast model. It's nice to see that High pressure cell way North of EnZed too.
     
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  31. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    See what you mean about Friday. Just about snow on Uluru if that panned out...
     
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  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    huh?o_O
     
  33. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    Some Canadian prediction magic right here. Sunday and Tuesday #epic
     
  34. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Friday looks yucky
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cold air upgrade on EC, compared to 12z run. Looking better each day imo
    [​IMG]
     
  36. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    #sunspots.
     
  37. Jimbo

    Jimbo Hard Yards

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    What are we thinking staying in Mansfield
    should I ski Saturday or Sunday?
     
  38. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sunday if I was you.
     
  39. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Might put people off skiing the weekend. Suits me.
     
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  40. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    It is the time of year for the upgrades. (Last week of July into mid Sept)
     
  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Friday night, 5-10cm gain above 1700m IMO. NE'ly/North/NW'ly delivery means Falls, Hotham & Perisher will do ok here.
     
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  42. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Its just got the vibe about it over the next few weeks IMO. Highs are weak, fronts are stacking. It just has that feel that it could go full dumpage at any time IMO. Watching with interest.
     
  43. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    4-6 August looks like when it will go off I reckon. Though I should take a look a little further out too.
     
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  44. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thanks JB, I just noticed Pows thread for early August and had a read. Fully agree it looks good at this stage IMO.
     
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  45. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Oh no, snow where it shouldn't be?
     
  46. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Of course we arrive and it always snows for us..
     
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  47. Vincentia guy

    Vincentia guy First Runs

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    Looks like this thread has been abandoned!. To think I was hoping to see lingering wild snow areas around Kiandra and now i'll be lucky if there is enough snow for the new chum bowl lol
     
  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The advice offered free of charge (ahead of BoM's forecast) HERE still stands. You've got a chance of a snow shower or two on Saturday but @ the upper elevations of Selwyn.
    Sunday afternoon you will will see snow lowering to ~1100m, also as suggested the other day.

    BoM forecast is here if you need it.;)
     
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  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Almost sub-1000hPa over the alps for this System Sunday. GFS says sub-1000hPa but I expect it'll come back a notch.
    Haven't seen one of those this season.
     
  50. bolz

    bolz Hard Yards

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    This chart just screams, Mt Buller Monday

     
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