Predictions 28th - 31st July

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by datsnow, Jul 18, 2018.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah still some conjecture on that inbound flow. EC has differing ideas.
     
  2. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    That screams Baw Baw to me, Buller would still be good.
    EC isn't as good, but it stills has a bit of a WSW-SW flow in there. Not amazing, but workable.
     
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  3. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    GFS is just bonkers for next week.
     
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  4. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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  5. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    Stand by for the usual downgrades :)
     
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  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic
     
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  7. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    4$ Day staying on it.

    [​IMG]
     
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  8. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Ha. Gotta love the cold front impacting Tennant Creek on Friday!
     
  9. skull

    skull One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    how is the wind looking for these dates at thredbo?
     
  10. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    GFS 00z looking good IMO
     

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  11. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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  12. Onlybackscratchers

    Onlybackscratchers One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    15-40cm Latest update for Thredbo on Sunday from BOM.
     
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  13. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Not sure anything is screaming Mt Buller anymore. BOM s leaning more over the border on this one.
     
  14. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    I wouldn't say it screams it, but the major models do still have a bit of a SW wind on Sunday night.
     
  15. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Seems 40 max against 25 from BOM at Falls and 15 at Buller, Tuesday may help, but its to far off to be considered yet.
     
  16. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Gfs looks really good on tonight’s run!! IMO
    With a front coming through sat night Sunday and then another not long after! Looks like could be snow down to around the 800-1000m mark over a few day period.
    Looking really really good for plenty of great snowfalls imo
     
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  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO temps look a little marginal for this time (at least Sunday). EC suggests it could be dampish below 1600m on Sunday morning.
    Better late Sunday and Monday/Tuesday.
     
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  18. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm aiming for Tues. Monday looks windy!
     
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  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, and since yesterday AM GFS has aligned with EC largely for FRI/SAT RE: the low tracking through NSW as well. Not a lot of surprises there. On the positive side, atleast it's drier.

    One can expect 10-15mm in the majors by daybreak Sunday AM, IMO.
     
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  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC showing FL ~2300m early Sunday yet indicates snow on YrNo Meteo for Perisher @ 1700m? Interesting.
    Not to mention pretty mediocre uppers. Gonna be a wet, warm blanket of a night for the alps IMO.

    EC 4am Sunday:


    EC 10am
     
    #120 POW_hungry, Jul 25, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 25, 2018
  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking at GFS, it's easy to get carried away. It's overselling the back end IMO.
    Tuesday is a Red Herring...Ridge out, I reckon.
     
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  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    This is what one would call ‘putting all your eggs in the one basket’.
    Gonna be some disappointed people out there, IMO.
     
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  23. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    Soooo ... maybe wet snow falling at Perisher, then? Might pack the over-gloves and poncho.
     
  24. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sunday.
    Wet.
    Colder as the day goes.
    The punters will be gone when the goodness arrives
     
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  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow level dropping around the time of lifts opening, rain before then IMO.
     
  26. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    I see Jane’s weather (presumably the automated forecast) is predicting 23cm of snow for Perisher on Sunday. I hope so. I’m demoing skis that day.
     
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  27. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    23 CM will be from 4pm
     
  28. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    Of course!
     
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  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC upgrades for Tuesday. GFS still bullishly divergent.
    EC:


    GFS:
     
  30. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    ^ im on team GFS and riding it all the way this week :)
     
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  31. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow line still dropping for Sat night/Sunday. Earlier the better
     
  32. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    GFS 00z upgrade for Sunday?? inside the 72 hour window too, will be interesting to see EC and ACCESS-R.
     
  33. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Nice to see MSLP that low in Bass Strait.
     
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  34. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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  35. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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  36. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pressure gradients and heights improvements on latest EPS
     
  37. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nice 850hPa plot for Victoria-
     
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  38. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Snow looks good for early Sunday morning but better to check in with Gurus first IMO.

    After a slow July period this looks to be an exceptional winter.
     
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  39. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    will that make it across the snowies.
     
  40. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes. There is however some warm air advection very likely Sunday morning.
     
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  41. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Boom shakka Lakka.
     
  42. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us

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    Repeat of last year with the bonus of a early start
     
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  43. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Could be pretty wet on Sunday at Buller on the latest EC output. Tomorrow mornings update will give a clearer picture IMO

    [​IMG]
     
  44. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  45. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Can you provide some explanation of that plot for the untrained @Kletterer ??
     
  46. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ouch. YR has no precip for Buller until Sunday 1800
     
  47. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Its anticipated track of an upper level cold core. Movement can however be erratic . Cyclones are symetric in nature .Asymetric cores are associated with potential frontal activity. Perhaps @POW_hungry can explain in further detail.
     
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  48. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    And warm cores are associated with tropical cyclones. Though you can get mid latitude and extropical warm core lows as well. The coloured dots correlate with the pressures on the right side. Basically shows a weakening cold core cyclone moving towards a front like @Kletterer says. Until it gets very weak.

    The link to these charts: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/
     
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  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep. Sounds good to me.
    Simply put, it plots the life cycle of the identified 'cyclone'. It's often used to indicate frontogenesis & cyclonegensis, or whether it's on the way in or on the way out... So to speak.

    Personally I like watching the colour code pressure drops and stalls in those plots.

    The one next week will probably remain in the Symmetric Cold-core quadrant for it's Australian tour, yet.
     
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  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    This is still looking like 10-30cm from Sunday to Wednesday, with 10-15mm of rain ahead of the main feature on Sunday morning in major resorts IMO.
    Will favour NSW, as a result of height and aspect IMO.
     
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