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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by datsnow, Jul 18, 2018.
Yeah still some conjecture on that inbound flow. EC has differing ideas.
That screams Baw Baw to me, Buller would still be good.
EC isn't as good, but it stills has a bit of a WSW-SW flow in there. Not amazing, but workable.
GFS is just bonkers for next week.
Stand by for the usual downgrades
Stay on topic
4$ Day staying on it.
Ha. Gotta love the cold front impacting Tennant Creek on Friday!
how is the wind looking for these dates at thredbo?
GFS 00z looking good IMO
Is there a date ranger extender.GFS is really starting to loose its grib.
15-40cm Latest update for Thredbo on Sunday from BOM.
Not sure anything is screaming Mt Buller anymore. BOM s leaning more over the border on this one.
I wouldn't say it screams it, but the major models do still have a bit of a SW wind on Sunday night.
Seems 40 max against 25 from BOM at Falls and 15 at Buller, Tuesday may help, but its to far off to be considered yet.
Gfs looks really good on tonight’s run!! IMO
With a front coming through sat night Sunday and then another not long after! Looks like could be snow down to around the 800-1000m mark over a few day period.
Looking really really good for plenty of great snowfalls imo
IMO temps look a little marginal for this time (at least Sunday). EC suggests it could be dampish below 1600m on Sunday morning.
Better late Sunday and Monday/Tuesday.
I'm aiming for Tues. Monday looks windy!
Yep, and since yesterday AM GFS has aligned with EC largely for FRI/SAT RE: the low tracking through NSW as well. Not a lot of surprises there. On the positive side, atleast it's drier.
One can expect 10-15mm in the majors by daybreak Sunday AM, IMO.
EC showing FL ~2300m early Sunday yet indicates snow on YrNo Meteo for Perisher @ 1700m? Interesting.
Not to mention pretty mediocre uppers. Gonna be a wet, warm blanket of a night for the alps IMO.
EC 4am Sunday:
Looking at GFS, it's easy to get carried away. It's overselling the back end IMO.
Tuesday is a Red Herring...Ridge out, I reckon.
This is what one would call ‘putting all your eggs in the one basket’.
Gonna be some disappointed people out there, IMO.
Soooo ... maybe wet snow falling at Perisher, then? Might pack the over-gloves and poncho.
Colder as the day goes.
The punters will be gone when the goodness arrives
Snow level dropping around the time of lifts opening, rain before then IMO.
I see Jane’s weather (presumably the automated forecast) is predicting 23cm of snow for Perisher on Sunday. I hope so. I’m demoing skis that day.
23 CM will be from 4pm
EC upgrades for Tuesday. GFS still bullishly divergent.
^ im on team GFS and riding it all the way this week
Snow line still dropping for Sat night/Sunday. Earlier the better
GFS 00z upgrade for Sunday?? inside the 72 hour window too, will be interesting to see EC and ACCESS-R.
Nice to see MSLP that low in Bass Strait.
Pressure gradients and heights improvements on latest EPS
plot for Victoria-
Snow looks good for early Sunday morning but better to check in with Gurus first IMO.
After a slow July period this looks to be an exceptional winter.
will that make it across the snowies.
Yes. There is however some warm air advection very likely Sunday morning.
Boom shakka Lakka.
Repeat of last year with the bonus of a early start
Could be pretty wet on Sunday at Buller on the latest EC output. Tomorrow mornings update will give a clearer picture IMO
Can you provide some explanation of that plot for the untrained @Kletterer ??
Ouch. YR has no precip for Buller until Sunday 1800
Its anticipated track of an upper level cold core. Movement can however be erratic . Cyclones are symetric in nature .Asymetric cores are associated with potential frontal activity. Perhaps @POW_hungry can explain in further detail.
And warm cores are associated with tropical cyclones. Though you can get mid latitude and extropical warm core lows as well. The coloured dots correlate with the pressures on the right side. Basically shows a weakening cold core cyclone moving towards a front like @Kletterer says. Until it gets very weak.
The link to these charts: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/
Yep. Sounds good to me.
Simply put, it plots the life cycle of the identified 'cyclone'. It's often used to indicate frontogenesis & cyclonegensis, or whether it's on the way in or on the way out... So to speak.
Personally I like watching the colour code pressure drops and stalls in those plots.
The one next week will probably remain in the Symmetric Cold-core quadrant for it's Australian tour, yet.
This is still looking like 10-30cm from Sunday to Wednesday, with 10-15mm of rain ahead of the main feature on Sunday morning in major resorts IMO.
Will favour NSW, as a result of height and aspect IMO.