Predictions 28th - 31st July

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by datsnow, Jul 18, 2018.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,246
    Likes Received:
    22,553
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Tuesday is being rationalised on GFS in alignment with EC this AM, IMO
     
  2. Muddy

    Muddy Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jul 10, 2012
    Messages:
    57
    Likes Received:
    129
    roughly what time do you reckon r@!n will clear vic resorts on Sunday?
     
  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,246
    Likes Received:
    22,553
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Won’t be a clearing trend it’ll be a ‘lowering snow line’. I expect snow on resort upper elevations around mid/late morning Sunday with a lowering trend into the arvo. Lowering to around 1200m IMO.
     
    Lady Penelope and Muddy like this.
  4. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,820
    Likes Received:
    1,431
    Location:
    South
    Access R suggesting a wee bit earlier IMO. Judging by the BOM 4 Day the main action occurs around 10 am.

    [​IMG]
     
    Edgecrusher and Froff Life like this.
  5. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2008
    Messages:
    1,971
    Likes Received:
    997
    Tuesday could be a surprise too if that pulls off...
     
    7wombathead and Ret-ro like this.
  6. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2017
    Messages:
    856
    Likes Received:
    665
    Really good winter looking at the set up and continual fronts ahead
     
  7. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 7, 2010
    Messages:
    1,124
    Likes Received:
    506
    Location:
    The edge of the bell curve
    Would love to be in the trees Sunday. Looking peachy.
     
  8. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2014
    Messages:
    7,025
    Likes Received:
    3,313
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Monday would be my pick, winds die down as do the crowds
     
  9. Swiss

    Swiss One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2015
    Messages:
    161
    Likes Received:
    253
    Location:
    Canberra
    I'm thinking of popping up to Perisher on Sunday for my first visit of the season - is the consensus that conditions will be tough wind and visibility wise, or will it drop off nicely into the afternoon?
     
  10. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2014
    Messages:
    7,025
    Likes Received:
    3,313
    Location:
    Melbourne
    I'm no expert, but it looks like temps could be marginal for some of the morning Sunday and lower down runs will be wet. Temps will drop as the day goes on. Stay high if you can and you should get fresh snow.

    Or better yet, chuck a sickie on Monday ;)
     
    Ted Harper and Swiss like this.
  11. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 7, 2010
    Messages:
    1,124
    Likes Received:
    506
    Location:
    The edge of the bell curve
    I like the look of the Sunday re-fills :)
     
    Froff Life likes this.
  12. bullet

    bullet One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 11, 2007
    Messages:
    879
    Likes Received:
    1,037
    Location:
    wollongong
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,246
    Likes Received:
    22,553
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Yep, def a chance of thunderstorms by Sunday arvo.
    #CHUNDERSNOW
     
    Infinity Dawn and SMSkier like this.
  14. bullet

    bullet One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 11, 2007
    Messages:
    879
    Likes Received:
    1,037
    Location:
    wollongong
    Does anyone have this afternoons access r charts please.
     
    Infinity Dawn likes this.
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,246
    Likes Received:
    22,553
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    We're within 72 hours now mate. Go HERE
    Half decent hook on it.

    Sunday AM
    [​IMG]

    850mb temps Sunday 10am (when I expect to snow to show up on the peaks).
    [​IMG]
     
    Infinity Dawn and bullet like this.
  16. bullet

    bullet One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 11, 2007
    Messages:
    879
    Likes Received:
    1,037
    Location:
    wollongong
    Do you have the chart with thickness as well?
    Thanks
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,246
    Likes Received:
    22,553
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    It's all in the link mate. Edited above.
    [​IMG]
     
    nfip likes this.
  18. bullet

    bullet One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 11, 2007
    Messages:
    879
    Likes Received:
    1,037
    Location:
    wollongong
    Cheers
     
  19. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2011
    Messages:
    3,246
    Likes Received:
    1,661
    Location:
    Sydney
    Not crazy about the BOMs temps for Sunday. -1 to 1 for Thredbo doesn't sound like snow to a 1000 metres.
     
    Infinity Dawn likes this.
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,246
    Likes Received:
    22,553
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    By Sunday 10pm you'll see snow to 1000m IMO.
    Cold pool (uppers) are there on all models. Don't forget that forecast is for the village.
     
  21. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2011
    Messages:
    3,246
    Likes Received:
    1,661
    Location:
    Sydney
    Yes, but the temps forecast is for up the top.
    Looks soggy based on that min/max.
     
  22. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    31,703
    Likes Received:
    27,088
    Location:
    woonona
    I've never seen a bom temps forecast for Thredbo that I've agreed with.
     
  23. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2011
    Messages:
    3,246
    Likes Received:
    1,661
    Location:
    Sydney
    Yeah, it's a bit hard to reconcile looking at their 4 dayer above.
     
  24. Jimbo

    Jimbo Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2015
    Messages:
    4
    Likes Received:
    10
    Heading up to Buller tomorrow are we going to get rain?
     
  25. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    31,703
    Likes Received:
    27,088
    Location:
    woonona
    Yes
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  26. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    31,703
    Likes Received:
    27,088
    Location:
    woonona
    Temps for Mt P
     
    Ret-ro and PMG like this.
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,246
    Likes Received:
    22,553
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Sorry, I am confusing it with Thredbo YrNo forecast. Yep, you're right, sorry forecast to Top Station.
    It's direct model output by the looks of it (fk knows what sort of resolution we're dealing with here)...
    To me, it looks like Charlottes Pass AWS is still included in the below too.
    EDIT: Australian Digital Forecast Database (ADFD) is displayed at a 6km res.
    "Overnight minimum
    Overnight Minimum Temperature, in degrees Celsius, between 6pm to 9am (local time) of the selected day (and previous night)."

     
    PMG likes this.
  28. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2017
    Messages:
    856
    Likes Received:
    665
    Snow comes from up high , the BOMare happy , heavy snow for the high hills.. plenty cold
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,246
    Likes Received:
    22,553
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Sunday 10pm... 30-35 knots winds inclusive.
    = snow above 1000m, on paper IMO.

    850mb temps


    500mb temps


    Precip.
     
  30. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2016
    Messages:
    278
    Likes Received:
    418
    Location:
    Sydney
    Looking good on EC

     
    Wardy and 1st_King_of_QBN like this.
  31. skull

    skull One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2017
    Messages:
    1,236
    Likes Received:
    1,883
    Hmm. I predict I might be packing the tent up Sunday morning rather than Sunday afternoon
     
    Ret-ro likes this.
  32. Vincentia guy

    Vincentia guy First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2018
    Messages:
    9
    Likes Received:
    8
    Damn! So if raining in Buller tomorrow I guess several hundred kilometres north at roughly the same altitude in Selwyn is going to be soggy melting rubbish over the next couple of days?. A balmy 7c here right now on the road between Canberra and Cooma according to the car
     
  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,246
    Likes Received:
    22,553
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    The forecast for Friday/Saturday has evolved quite a bit since earlier in the week.
    Any precip on Saturday will come late (evening) with the arrival of the front. I don't see much, if any, precip or snow until Sunday arvo now IMO.
     
  34. Vincentia guy

    Vincentia guy First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2018
    Messages:
    9
    Likes Received:
    8
    Understood- so do you think resorts in marginal areas and altitudes like Selwyn will suffer significant degradation tomrrow and most of Sunday before the front arrives? This is so my luck lol! Come Sunday arvo when it’s time to go home it will suddenly start puking and do so until atleast Jindabyne on the way out lol
     
  35. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    31,703
    Likes Received:
    27,088
    Location:
    woonona
    It's going to rain.
    But not alot.
    It's not going to be pleasant
     
    Rick Ross Da Boss and Ted Harper like this.
  36. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    17,058
    Likes Received:
    17,471
    Location:
    Canberra
    Strong Mixing Ratios playing the gas equation game with pressure gradients later on Sat. A tad warm at 850.
     
  37. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    17,058
    Likes Received:
    17,471
    Location:
    Canberra
    GFS 6am Sunday showing freeze level circa 1400 metres plus adiabatic cooling. Snow by midnight IMO
     
    SMSkier likes this.
  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,246
    Likes Received:
    22,553
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    You think so? You've posted 4pm....

    EC: ~2300m FL on Midnight Sunday AM... GFS is trippin' IMO
     
  39. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    17,058
    Likes Received:
    17,471
    Location:
    Canberra
    Oooh i did too. a little phased and or too much wine here :oops:
     
  40. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2015
    Messages:
    5,920
    Likes Received:
    5,341
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Tuesday night here in VIC. looks like a big snow fall is coming to the XC ski areas.
     
  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,246
    Likes Received:
    22,553
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Tuesday fading a bit on GFS and EC this morning....
     
    1st_King_of_QBN likes this.
  42. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 7, 2010
    Messages:
    1,124
    Likes Received:
    506
    Location:
    The edge of the bell curve
    Monday looking interesting at the border (ACCESS-Rrrrrrr)
     
  43. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2015
    Messages:
    5,920
    Likes Received:
    5,341
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Tuesday night has been scaled down in forecasts but there should still be enough in it to warrant a day of XC skiing on Wed. next week.
     
  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,246
    Likes Received:
    22,553
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Expect more downgrades IMO. I think Tuesday has been questionable since it's existence in the models with that ridge.
     
  45. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2015
    Messages:
    5,920
    Likes Received:
    5,341
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Possibly so but Lake Mtn. here in VIC. is set to get a top up tomorrow night that will set it up for the week!!
     
  46. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    17,058
    Likes Received:
    17,471
    Location:
    Canberra
    GFS- Improvement in 700hPa Vapour transfer plots this morning- slightly less Northerly feed and positioned over Alps.
     
  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,246
    Likes Received:
    22,553
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    ~10mm of rain until around ~9am Sunday where it'll turn to snow for LM, IMO.
    10cm (MAYBE 15cm at a push) of new snow Sunday arvo, is where I think it'll end up. Not amazing, I reckon.
     
    Kletterer likes this.
  48. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    17,058
    Likes Received:
    17,471
    Location:
    Canberra
  49. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    22,128
    Likes Received:
    14,621
    Location:
    Dubbo NSW
    Its because mins are up to 9am and maximums after 9am. So it reaches -1 overnight but its probably 1 degree up until midday. Doesnt mean it wont be -4 at 3pm.
     
  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    114,288
    Likes Received:
    51,523
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic