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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by datsnow, Jul 18, 2018.
Tuesday is being rationalised on GFS in alignment with EC this AM, IMO
roughly what time do you reckon r@!n will clear vic resorts on Sunday?
Won’t be a clearing trend it’ll be a ‘lowering snow line’. I expect snow on resort upper elevations around mid/late morning Sunday with a lowering trend into the arvo. Lowering to around 1200m IMO.
Access R suggesting a wee bit earlier IMO. Judging by the BOM 4 Day the main action occurs around 10 am.
Tuesday could be a surprise too if that pulls off...
Really good winter looking at the set up and continual fronts ahead
Would love to be in the trees Sunday. Looking peachy.
Monday would be my pick, winds die down as do the crowds
I'm thinking of popping up to Perisher on Sunday for my first visit of the season - is the consensus that conditions will be tough wind and visibility wise, or will it drop off nicely into the afternoon?
I'm no expert, but it looks like temps could be marginal for some of the morning Sunday and lower down runs will be wet. Temps will drop as the day goes on. Stay high if you can and you should get fresh snow.
Or better yet, chuck a sickie on Monday
I like the look of the Sunday re-fills
Yep, def a chance of thunderstorms by Sunday arvo.
Does anyone have this afternoons access r charts please.
We're within 72 hours now mate. Go HERE
Half decent hook on it.
850mb temps Sunday 10am (when I expect to snow to show up on the peaks).
Do you have the chart with thickness as well?
It's all in the link mate. Edited above.
Not crazy about the BOMs temps for Sunday. -1 to 1 for Thredbo doesn't sound like snow to a 1000 metres.
By Sunday 10pm you'll see snow to 1000m IMO.
Cold pool (uppers) are there on all models. Don't forget that forecast is for the village.
Yes, but the temps forecast is for up the top.
Looks soggy based on that min/max.
I've never seen a bom temps forecast for Thredbo that I've agreed with.
Yeah, it's a bit hard to reconcile looking at their 4 dayer above.
Heading up to Buller tomorrow are we going to get rain?
Temps for Mt P
Sorry, I am confusing it with Thredbo YrNo forecast. Yep, you're right, sorry forecast to Top Station.
It's direct model output by the looks of it (fk knows what sort of resolution we're dealing with here)...
To me, it looks like Charlottes Pass AWS is still included in the below too.
EDIT: Australian Digital Forecast Database (ADFD) is displayed at a 6km res.
Overnight Minimum Temperature, in degrees Celsius, between 6pm to 9am (local time) of the selected day (and previous night)."
Snow comes from up high , the BOMare happy , heavy snow for the high hills.. plenty cold
Sunday 10pm... 30-35 knots winds inclusive.
= snow above 1000m, on paper IMO.
Looking good on EC
Hmm. I predict I might be packing the tent up Sunday morning rather than Sunday afternoon
Damn! So if raining in Buller tomorrow I guess several hundred kilometres north at roughly the same altitude in Selwyn is going to be soggy melting rubbish over the next couple of days?. A balmy 7c here right now on the road between Canberra and Cooma according to the car
The forecast for Friday/Saturday has evolved quite a bit since earlier in the week.
Any precip on Saturday will come late (evening) with the arrival of the front. I don't see much, if any, precip or snow until Sunday arvo now IMO.
Understood- so do you think resorts in marginal areas and altitudes like Selwyn will suffer significant degradation tomrrow and most of Sunday before the front arrives? This is so my luck lol! Come Sunday arvo when it’s time to go home it will suddenly start puking and do so until atleast Jindabyne on the way out lol
It's going to rain.
But not alot.
It's not going to be pleasant
Strong Mixing Ratios playing the gas equation game with pressure gradients later on Sat. A tad warm at 850.
GFS 6am Sunday showing freeze level circa 1400 metres plus adiabatic cooling. Snow by midnight IMO
You think so? You've posted 4pm....
EC: ~2300m FL on Midnight Sunday AM... GFS is trippin' IMO
Oooh i did too. a little phased and or too much wine here
Tuesday night here in VIC. looks like a big snow fall is coming to the XC ski areas.
Tuesday fading a bit on GFS and EC this morning....
Monday looking interesting at the border (ACCESS-Rrrrrrr)
Tuesday night has been scaled down in forecasts but there should still be enough in it to warrant a day of XC skiing on Wed. next week.
Expect more downgrades IMO. I think Tuesday has been questionable since it's existence in the models with that ridge.
Possibly so but Lake Mtn. here in VIC. is set to get a top up tomorrow night that will set it up for the week!!
GFS- Improvement in 700hPa Vapour transfer plots this morning- slightly less Northerly feed and positioned over Alps.
~10mm of rain until around ~9am Sunday where it'll turn to snow for LM, IMO.
10cm (MAYBE 15cm at a push) of new snow Sunday arvo, is where I think it'll end up. Not amazing, I reckon.
Its because mins are up to 9am and maximums after 9am. So it reaches -1 overnight but its probably 1 degree up until midday. Doesnt mean it wont be -4 at 3pm.