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Predictions 28th - 31st July

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by datsnow, Jul 18, 2018.

  1. iagreewithhim

    iagreewithhim One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    That's the way it goes!
     
  2. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 0Z almost identical to last run.
     
  3. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Who thinks Lake Mtn. will lose as much snow through warm winds and R**n as it will gain through fresh snow falls as result of these incoming cold fronts?
     
  4. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Theta ( equivelent potential temp ) plot 4pm Sunday ;)
     
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  5. Swiss

    Swiss Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    So are we thinking Sunday at Perisher may not be worth the day trip from Canberra? Should I save it until next weekend?
     
  6. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Heavy rain tonight- moderate snowfalls tomorow arvo/ night. Take what mother nature gives.
     
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  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Will only improve after mid-morning IMO. Yolo.
     
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Further ridge out of Tuesday's system on GFS this arvo. Trending in the wrong direction IMO.
     
  9. Swiss

    Swiss Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    It's tomorrow or next weekend for me before we all head down for a few days from the 15th.

    Maybe the 4th/5th is a better bet?
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sorry, I am not here to tell you which will be 'better' - there's still alot of uncertainty over next weekend. At least tomorrow you know what you're in for...

    IMHO, I imagine next weekend to include rain, wind and snow, just like tomorrow will.
     
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  11. Swiss

    Swiss Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Yeah, I know, it's a tricky one and I don't expect you to make the call. I really appreciate your insights.

    I'd take a sickie on Monday, but the boss says no. And I'm the boss...
     
  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Haha, less guilt next weekend then! Go for it.
     
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  13. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    For what it's worth I think snow from about midday tomorrow until midnight then the rest of this period not much happening.
     
    Gregah likes this.
  14. foxbat

    foxbat Hard Yards

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    well I'm locked and loaded for next w/e....found a nice cheap little B & B in B'dale.....so fingers crossed ;)
     
  15. Sno Sno SNO

    Sno Sno SNO Hard Yards

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    Change late into Adelaide. humidity up a bit with patches of very low cloud but it remains very calm. Forecast building northerlies not evident yet.
     
  16. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bom still likes Tues for Thredbo.
     
  17. Vincentia guy

    Vincentia guy First Runs

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    Turned out to be a great day at Selwyn, complete coverage from about 1300 meters onwards. Obviously slushy towards the afternoon but it is Selwyn after all lol
     
  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    On the flipside, BoM scales back yesterday's 20-40mm to 10-25mm precip for Perisher tomorrow. Seems about right to me.
     
  19. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Speckle.
     
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  20. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    Any updates on likelihood of snow? Is the system still on track?
     
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  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still on track. Snow on the peaks in the next hour or two then lowering snowline as the day goes on. Should be enough to see steady snowfall through to tonight IMO.
     
    IAB, SMSkier, rocketboy and 3 others like this.
  22. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    :thumbs: Sooner the better ...
     
  23. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  24. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I predict road carnage leaving Perisher.
    There will be many cars up there without chains.
     
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  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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  26. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yup just negative on my station, -0.1 which seems consistently a couple of tenths warmer than the AWS which is consistent with it being about 100m lower.
     
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  27. Lifes2good

    Lifes2good One of Us

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    Agreed.
     
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  28. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I should have said NSW. Reading the Vic temp posts has been reassuring that it will arrive. And there appears to be some water cloud mass to deliver.

    < On Friday in the fog - it was quite incredible how dry the fog actually was despite been very thick. There was virtually no damp on the jacket - and the goggles had zero mositure on them all afternoon. >
     
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  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Falls into the negs now
     
  30. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    I have to head back up at 2pm. Will be an interesting trip.
     
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  31. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Be especially watchful for ice under the fresh snow after today's moisture and temp drops.
     
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  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
    Weather predictions only.
     
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  33. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    This mornings BOM four day’er looks alright.
     
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  34. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Yep
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tomorrow night still looking like ~10cm IMO (Monday night/Tuesday AM)
    [​IMG]
     
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  36. JustCantStop

    JustCantStop Addicted

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    Everyone seems focussed on the 6th and beyond... but for Perisher snowatch.com says 5-10cm tomorrow and Jane says 11cm over Tuesday/Wednesday. But BOM says it is going to be a max temp of 16 degrees in Melbourne :eek:

    Whats going on? 16 degrees is usually too warm for anything exciting but those figures are significant. Is 10cms still on the cards for the next 48 hours?
     
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  37. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    My recent experience as Perisher with the hair dryer was that it took snow quicker than rain. The warm wind. Rain at night is less effective. & I predict it will snow Tuesday night & we might get a surprise
     
    Mister Tee on XC Skis likes this.
  38. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    I am banking on it snowing on Tuesday night and so I am waxing up my XC skis for a day at Lake Mtn. this Wed.
     
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  39. blowfin

    blowfin One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    A few potential snowflakes on the Stirling Range for Thursday morning.


    In all reality, there'll probably be more people hiking up there to see said flakes than actual flakes.
     
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  40. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    They said 16 for today in Melbourne and only got to 12.5 just before lunch then dropped for the rest of the afternoon. I live in the S.E. suburbs and my weather station was flat out getting past 11 all day.
     
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  41. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    10cm for Tues night has been on the charts for a good 3 or 4 days now.
     
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  42. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    The front looks to be punching higher then forecast IMO. Better then the models in my opinion .
     
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  43. kiter

    kiter One of Us

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    Great let’s hope it doesn’t fizz and slip slide away. That second one might be tasty on Wednesday
     
  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Adelaide's dopplar radar is hypersensitive in my experience...
    Parawa West (SA) picked up 3mm with not a skerrick of moisture behind it - sorry I struggling to even see 10 cents here. In recent days, it's had more fade than Kobe on court.

    It's a slide and fade IMO.
     
  45. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Wardy likes this.
  46. dayzoff

    dayzoff One of Us

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    Definitely been snowing lightly all morning from mid station & up at Thredbo. Can't see out the windows at Black Sallies, good accumulation
     
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  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good tradesmen don't blame thier tools. ;)

    I'd be looking at your 'source' as snow-forecast is good for pretty pictures and unreliable meteos IMO.
    HINT: it's GFS fueled.
     
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  48. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    As long as I am skiing on fresh snow and not groomed ice then I cannot complain. Later in Spring I might revise this pronouncement.