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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by datsnow, Jul 18, 2018.
That's the way it goes!
GFS 0Z almost identical to last run.
Who thinks Lake Mtn. will lose as much snow through warm winds and R**n as it will gain through fresh snow falls as result of these incoming cold fronts?
Theta ( equivelent potential temp ) plot 4pm Sunday
So are we thinking Sunday at Perisher may not be worth the day trip from Canberra? Should I save it until next weekend?
Heavy rain tonight- moderate snowfalls tomorow arvo/ night. Take what mother nature gives.
Will only improve after mid-morning IMO. Yolo.
Further ridge out of Tuesday's system on GFS this arvo. Trending in the wrong direction IMO.
It's tomorrow or next weekend for me before we all head down for a few days from the 15th.
Maybe the 4th/5th is a better bet?
Sorry, I am not here to tell you which will be 'better' - there's still alot of uncertainty over next weekend. At least tomorrow you know what you're in for...
IMHO, I imagine next weekend to include rain, wind and snow, just like tomorrow will.
Yeah, I know, it's a tricky one and I don't expect you to make the call. I really appreciate your insights.
I'd take a sickie on Monday, but the boss says no. And I'm the boss...
Haha, less guilt next weekend then! Go for it.
For what it's worth I think snow from about midday tomorrow until midnight then the rest of this period not much happening.
well I'm locked and loaded for next w/e....found a nice cheap little B & B in B'dale.....so fingers crossed
Change late into Adelaide. humidity up a bit with patches of very low cloud but it remains very calm. Forecast building northerlies not evident yet.
Bom still likes Tues for Thredbo.
Turned out to be a great day at Selwyn, complete coverage from about 1300 meters onwards. Obviously slushy towards the afternoon but it is Selwyn after all lol
On the flipside, BoM scales back yesterday's 20-40mm to 10-25mm precip for Perisher tomorrow. Seems about right to me.
Any updates on likelihood of snow? Is the system still on track?
Still on track. Snow on the peaks in the next hour or two then lowering snowline as the day goes on. Should be enough to see steady snowfall through to tonight IMO.
Sooner the better ...
Earth Null shows the cold air arriving around 1ish. Looks to be some water cloud content. Might yet be a fun afternoon.
I predict road carnage leaving Perisher.
There will be many cars up there without chains.
In the negatives now on Buller, Hotham and ALMOST Falls (+0.4C). Cold air is here.
Yup just negative on my station, -0.1 which seems consistently a couple of tenths warmer than the AWS which is consistent with it being about 100m lower.
I should have said NSW. Reading the Vic temp posts has been reassuring that it will arrive. And there appears to be some water cloud mass to deliver.
< On Friday in the fog - it was quite incredible how dry the fog actually was despite been very thick. There was virtually no damp on the jacket - and the goggles had zero mositure on them all afternoon. >
Falls into the negs now
I have to head back up at 2pm. Will be an interesting trip.
Be especially watchful for ice under the fresh snow after today's moisture and temp drops.
Stay on topic.
Weather predictions only.
This mornings BOM four day’er looks alright.
Tomorrow night still looking like ~10cm IMO (Monday night/Tuesday AM)
Everyone seems focussed on the 6th and beyond... but for Perisher snowatch.com says 5-10cm tomorrow and Jane says 11cm over Tuesday/Wednesday. But BOM says it is going to be a max temp of 16 degrees in Melbourne
Whats going on? 16 degrees is usually too warm for anything exciting but those figures are significant. Is 10cms still on the cards for the next 48 hours?
My recent experience as Perisher with the hair dryer was that it took snow quicker than rain. The warm wind. Rain at night is less effective. & I predict it will snow Tuesday night & we might get a surprise
I am banking on it snowing on Tuesday night and so I am waxing up my XC skis for a day at Lake Mtn. this Wed.
A few potential snowflakes on the Stirling Range for Thursday morning.
In all reality, there'll probably be more people hiking up there to see said flakes than actual flakes.
They said 16 for today in Melbourne and only got to 12.5 just before lunch then dropped for the rest of the afternoon. I live in the S.E. suburbs and my weather station was flat out getting past 11 all day.
10cm for Tues night has been on the charts for a good 3 or 4 days now.
The front looks to be punching higher then forecast IMO. Better then the models in my opinion
Great let’s hope it doesn’t fizz and slip slide away. That second one might be tasty on Wednesday
Adelaide's dopplar radar is hypersensitive in my experience...
Parawa West (SA) picked up 3mm with not a skerrick of moisture behind it - sorry I struggling to even see 10 cents here. In recent days, it's had more fade than Kobe on court.
It's a slide and fade IMO.
The forecast for Friday at Mt. Buffalo keeps changing , like the weather ;-P
The Forecast for tonight Tuesday 31.7.18 at Lake Mtn. still looks like some fresh snow will fall . I am driving up there tomorrow.
Definitely been snowing lightly all morning from mid station & up at Thredbo. Can't see out the windows at Black Sallies, good accumulation
Good tradesmen don't blame thier tools.
I'd be looking at your 'source' as snow-forecast is good for pretty pictures and unreliable meteos IMO.
HINT: it's GFS fueled.
As long as I am skiing on fresh snow and not groomed ice then I cannot complain. Later in Spring I might revise this pronouncement.