Event 29 SEP - 2 OCT SE Aus Broad-based Low

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,791
39,093
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Eastern Burbs of Sydney
Well it's almost a year to the day, under similar climate driver conditions and we've got ourselves a (seemingly more-benign) similar system on our hands - another low pressure anchors itself over the SE.

BoM 4-dayer:
1632628636590.png


8th Oct 2020, that yielded this event:
1632628545731.png


This was BoM's take on it:

Looks like we'll see rainfall totals in the 40-80mm for central NSW, to over a tonne for NE Tas.
EC by next Saturday:
1632628814050.png
 
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Edgecrusher

Pool Room
Ski Pass
Apr 19, 2013
72,268
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The Southern Capital
I know i've called it a bit lately, but think this will be the big flood event. All major storages full or very close to full. Catchments primed and widespread rain.
Melbourne's storages are currently at 83.8% full, which is their highest since 1997.

Dartmouth and Eildon are both approaching 80% full, while Hume is close to spilling.

Going to be interesting watching this next week unfold down here.
 

Snow Blowey

Old n' Crusty
Ski Pass
Jan 7, 2004
26,996
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Dubbo NSW
Hume has been releasing already. Still a bit of melt water to go yet also.

Both dams that feed the Murrumbidgee (Burrinjuck and Blowering) have been releasing water over the last couple of months.

Wyangala has been spilling recently and the Lachlan had minor flooding along it for the last month or so.

Burrendong is 101%. The macquarie has had solid flows for the last couple of months and the last couple of small rain events around Bathurst have resulted in minor to moderate flooding.

Keepit has been full for a couple of months.

Copeton at 83% and has had some good filling in the last couple of months so that catchment is also primed to flow with decent rain. The macintyre has had good flows for a couple of months.

Not sure whats going on in southern queensland.

Menindee lakes over 100%. Still good flows in the darling above menindee.
 

davidg

Part of the Furniture
Ski Pass
Feb 4, 2009
18,010
28,942
813
Lower BM's
I know its not the same area but Warragamba had been releasing water for about a month straight coming into our rainy seasons, river has been up by about 1m the last 4 weeks. Has dropped storage levels down a couple of % as a result. Not sure why they stopped though, still sitting on 96% full.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,791
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Eastern Burbs of Sydney
A comprehensive, day-by-day coverage by Ben Domensino, here:
 

Joshua Randazzo

Hard Yards
Jan 1, 2021
259
236
63
near sydney CBD.
Thursday 5pm big thunderstorm over wollongong according to ECMF but sadly i don't think sydney CBD and eastern suburbs will see much maybe a midlevel rain band from dead storm anvils. when you live near Sydney's CBD you get use to seeing remnants of dead storms eg bases drying up,no more thunder. but i'm always hopefully that one day this storm season sydneys CBD and eastern suburbs get a not to severe but a nice afternoon thunderstorm with nice rainfall rates and thunder. it seems to be getting rarer

 
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nfip

Cold 'n Rusty
Ski Pass
Jul 24, 2006
22,352
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Yuin Country
AXS-C 1300 hours tomorrow:
1632800493043.png
I just pulled the trigger on 7am concrete.
I reckon we'll get it in before the precip hits mid - late morning.
And then it will only be light. GFS & AXS.
EC a bit more bullish.
Don't need a real good finish on it so will chance our arm.
Footings open also. will go later in the morning if they sky and radar look ok.
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,791
39,093
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
I just pulled the trigger on 7am concrete.
I reckon we'll get it in before the precip hits mid - late morning.
And then it will only be light. GFS & AXS.
EC a bit more bullish.
Don't need a real good finish on it so will chance our arm.
Footings open also. will go later in the morning if they sky and radar look ok.
Yeh
Ya, good 'til midday, I think.
 

nfip

Cold 'n Rusty
Ski Pass
Jul 24, 2006
22,352
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Yuin Country
God what’s with the hyperbole with the media , i have seen 3 news stories pop up in my feed using terms like ‘giant’ hail and ‘monster’ storms ... wtf !? No wonder ppl are just oblivious to all this now.
hmmm.
my cynical side says commercially driven by the insurance companies perhaps.
gets those troublesome cars under cover etc.
 
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Homer

One of Us
Ski Pass
Aug 3, 2005
1,761
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Castle Hill - Sydney
God what’s with the hyperbole with the media , i have seen 3 news stories pop up in my feed using terms like ‘giant’ hail and ‘monster’ storms ... wtf !? No wonder ppl are just oblivious to all this now.

Clickbait for media websites.
The more dramatic they make it sound, the more people that will click on the article. The more advertising $$ they get.
It's crap, and it's crap because there are so many fools out there who have no idea about weather.
 
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