Predictions 29th April-2nd May

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Jellybeans, Apr 21, 2020.

  1. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some really solid progress being made by the models at some distance from the event. Been on the radar for a week now, so it’s worth tracking.

    GFS:


    EC:



    Ensembles are invested in it as well. EC probably the most into it out of all the main deterministic models. Could be a decent mainland ground cooling system or another Tasmanian teaser. Depends on how strong the ridge behind it is.

    Could be fun.
     
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  2. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I did notice the snowflake icon on YR earlier today.
     
  3. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    CMC holding serve this morning:


    EC dropped down a bit to a Tassie-based system, but it’s ensemble is holding on.
     
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  4. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Feels like the hpa is being a bit under-estimated (for our liking, it's too high IMO).
     
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not a prediction, just model commentary but GFS 18Z showing snow above ~900m in Vic for 30th.
    Ridgey but a frigid SW'ly flow.
    [​IMG]
     
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  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The Canuck is punting a spicy SE Aus cold outbreak for the 30th. Looks really big.
    GFS sounding like a broken record with a nice bit frontal system on 00z run.

    As always, we wait for EC!
     
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  7. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Stop it pow!! Lol
    Can u show some chart candy from the Canuck??
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
     
  9. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Blue tongues filled with cold mint!!
     
  10. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    High is too Far East IMO
     
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  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    *canuck
     
  12. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'll wait for eurotrash
     
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  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM recognising possible snow next Wednesday. Thredbo:

    Pitch a salt anyone?
     
  14. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ridgey euro
    not unexpected I guess.


    There’s room to play with, snowfall wise.
     
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  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just purely IMO, that's pretty close to our outcome I reckon.
     
  16. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    EPS spread is quite broad atm.
     
  17. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Its all about the west coast eagle...
    and he's playing in Albany
     
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  18. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    EC looking better, hope it sticks. Maybe a good 20cm out of this one
    GFS / CMC complete drop off for now...
     
  19. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Visualisation of this morning’s EC:


    GFS 18z is in the party as well:
     
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  20. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  21. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    CMC 12Z was looking pretty healthy with a complex lpa within the trough
    gem-all-aus-mslp_anom-8248000.png gem-all-aus-mslp_anom-8291200.png gem-all-aus-mslp_anom-8334400.png gem-all-aus-mslp_anom-8377600.png


    .
     
  22. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Just to add to that post some more info on the run. Cold uppers @ 500mb/700mb. The moisture chart on the run also looked healthy. Cold, low pressure and moisture.



    gem-all-aus-t500-8248000.png gem-all-aus-t700-8248000.png
     
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  23. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    pretty pictures.
    My dumbass likes
     
  24. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wow she’s big for April.

     
  25. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Am I reading EC right ? 60cm? How did this happen? And it seems Tassie is getting a dump on most of it now also

     
  26. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Very very big, but also very very ambiguous on the system like there's no way, when was the last time something like this happened
     
  27. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    80cm for Tassie.


    This looks like a plot from July.
     
  28. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Do you have the chart showing the max value over the NSW / VIC area?
     
  29. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Location:
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    ~75cm
     
  30. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I don't buy those totals because lots of the precipitation will fall as rain.
     
  31. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    That’s all precipitation falling as snow.

    Of course it’s entirely plausible that it’s completely overestimating it.
    GFS and CMC aren’t as strong, particularly the former.
     
  32. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Late April 2009? Or was it 2008?
     
  33. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Good old 2009



    Edit: And 2008

     
  34. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Buller opened a lift for the weekend of May 2-3
     
  35. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    EC has 2 installments
     
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  36. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    CMC thinks similar.
    But how strong is that high.
     
  37. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  38. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    EPS spread suggests the gradients may not be as tight as plotted atm. I think it might see a mild downgrade imo.
     
  39. Boodwah

    Boodwah A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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  40. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I am in residence, for me it will be 'exercise'.
     
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  41. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    00z cmc strengthen/s the anom more as its moving offshore.Should it verify as per the on paper atm. It looks a strong amon.

    gem-all-aus-z500_anom-1587600000-1588032000-1588464000-20.gif
     
  42. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Progression is over cooked IMO.
    Gut feel is a ridging high and strong low in the Tasman.
     
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  43. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    You could just say it will clip the Alps and still give a 5cm dusting instead
    Must stay positive! Haha
     
  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tend to agree.
    Model spread still too great to swing favourably IMO.
     
  45. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Ukmet just a little short in length. But it was showing the ridge eroding as the trough amplifies in the GAB.
     

    Attached Files:

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  46. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah that's promising...
    The mslp is very different on that chart. The high is anchored far far west.
     
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  47. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    BOM certainly not convinced yet.
     
  48. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Im seeing the bulk of the precip as the non flakey kind atm. Initial 700hPa temps are not convincing even with an Adiabatic lift mechanism helping.
     
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  49. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I think I'll just wait till the 4 day rule
     
  50. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Likely may also see coastal coastal inundation warnings if current plots verify. Powerful sea's.

    ecmwf-wave-aus-max_indiv_wave_height-1587600000-1588204800-1588464000-40.gif
     
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