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Predictions 29th April-2nd May

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Jellybeans, Apr 21, 2020.

  1. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    yeah i'm thinking hotham and falls may do very well tomorrow.
     
  2. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Consistent ~2cm/hour fall rates all day.
    Mind you, it will be absolutely howling.
     
  3. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mount Perisher looks just as good too.

    the definition of a blizzard. It’s gonna be absolutely wild.
     
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  4. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    The Whirling Dervish at 4pm today :eek:
     
  5. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    18z GFS 1st @ 4pm onwards. Jimmy Hendrix and the 'wind begin to howl'
    temperature--925_mel_t16_00-036-2020042918z.png temperature--925_mel_t22_00-042-2020042918z.png






     
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  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Just mix in kero (4l per 100l diesel).
     
  7. Swiss

    Swiss One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think he's angling for the day off though..
     
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  8. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    ASCAT showing some wickedness SW of Tassie.
     
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  9. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Nice thick high cloud forecast on that 18z also.


    Was good actually @ all levels.
     
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  10. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Nice catch those 50km samples are mainly used to show off a closed circulation.
     
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  11. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    With those wind charts, I predict the SES are going to be very busy across Vicco, starting tonight and until late Sunday...
     
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  12. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    30kt gales atm on that sample. plot2 showing 45kt gales to the southwest of the low. Its likely they will increase.


    23.15 is the pass time stamp.
     
  13. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    00z GFS surface wind wise tamed its self down on the run 4pm- 10 on surface plots. Mid levels still think cloud forecast.

    shear--surface_mel_t16_00-030-2020043000z.png shear--surface_mel_t22_00-036-2020043000z.png cloud--mid_mel_t16_00-030-2020043000z.png




    cloud--high_mel_t07_00-021-2020043000z.png cloud--high_mel_t10_00-024-2020043000z.png cloud--high_mel_t13_00-027-2020043000z.png cloud--high_mel_t22_00-036-2020043000z.png
     
  14. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    For the record, posted by @stormkite2000 7 days ago.
    Pretty much exactly how it has played out.

    [​IMG]
     
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  15. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    This needs to be framed. I have never seen totals like that with negative temps, even mid season!

     
  16. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Massive variance to Perisher though

    Eg Perisher is
    Friday 1 May
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -4
    Max -1
    Snow. Very windy.
    Possible rainfall: 35 to 70 mm
    Chance of any rain: 95% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of snow. The chance of a thunderstorm with possible small hail. Gusty winds. Winds northwesterly 50 to 70 km/h increasing to 60 to 80 km/h before dawn then tending westerly 40 to 60 km/h in the evening.

    Sun protection recommended from 11:00 am to 1:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

    7 day Town Forecasts
    Precis Icon Location Min Max
    [​IMG] Thredbo Top Station -5 -3
    [​IMG] Perisher Valley -4 -1
    Saturday 2 May
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -3
    Max 0
    Snow. Windy
    Possible rainfall: 3 to 10 mm
    Chance of any rain: 80% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Cloudy. High (80%) chance of snow , most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds westerly 40 to 55 km/h increasing to 45 to 65 km/h before dawn then tending southwesterly 30 to 45 km/h in the late evening
     
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  17. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    4ft Storm!
     
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  18. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    Bejeebus.
    I just came here to post that Thredbo forecast. Beaten to it by TB.
    WTF??
     
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  19. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    OMG
     
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  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Somewhat laughable NSW BOM haven't used the ‘B’ word in their bulletin or forecast.
     
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  21. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    60-80 km/h winds (gusts will be somewhat higher), and somewhere near a meter of snow forecast.
    Yep, agreed.
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ill-prepared people perish in less than hour with what’s progged for tomorrow.
    It’s serious wx.
     
  23. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Yes we have had that. Mind you that's at 1900 odd metres. Same level as top of Mt P. Could be 5 feet up top.. They are going with the height. Might last through to start of season.
     
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  24. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    or be washed away in a week!
     
  25. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    portland cape otway i think myself will see gusts likely around 50kts tomorrow.
     
  26. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Ms.Bunn's automated modelling is predicting over 50 cms at Lake Mtn. If it comes true then I doubt they will get a bigger snowfall in 24 hours this year.

    http://www.janebunn.net/lake-mountain
     
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  27. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Ms.Bunn's automated modelling is predicting over 50 cms at Lake Mtn. It could be the biggest snowfall up there that any of us Mexicans will never get to XC ski!!
    http://www.janebunn.net/lake-mountain
    Forecast for the rest of Thursday
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Heavy snow showers.
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    North Central area
    Mostly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers in the east, medium (40%) chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1000 metres. Showers and snow showers heavy at times in the east later tonight. The chance of a thunderstorm early this evening. Gusty winds and possible hail. Winds westerly 20 to 30 km/h.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Friday 1 May
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -1
    Max 0
    Heavy snow showers possible.
    Possible rainfall: 20 to 60 mm
    Chance of any rain: 100% [​IMG]
    North Central area
    Mostly cloudy. Gusty winds and possible hail in the morning and afternoon. Very high (90%) chance of showers, most likely in the late morning and afternoon. Snow falling above 900 metres. Heavy falls possible in the east. Winds westerly 25 to 35 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to around 4 with daytime temperatures reaching between 6 and 10.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    7 day Town Forecasts

    Precis Icon
    Location Min Max
    [​IMG] Seymour 5 10
    Saturday 2 May
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -1
    Max 2
    Snow showers. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 6 to 20 mm
    Chance of any rain: 95% [​IMG]
    North Central area
    Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers in the east, medium (50%) chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1200 metres. Winds westerly 25 to 40 km/h turning southwesterly during the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 4 and 7 with daytime temperatures reaching between 8 and 12.

    Sun protection recommended from 11:30 am to 12:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

    Sunday 3 May
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 1
    Max 4
    Shower or two.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
    Chance of any rain: 60% [​IMG]
    North Central area
    Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower in the east, most likely in the morning. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Snow possible above 1300 metres. Winds southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light during the morning then becoming south to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day. Overnight temperatures falling to around 5 with daytime temperatures reaching between 10 and 14.

    Sun protection recommended from 10:50 am to 1:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

     
  28. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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  29. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    That’s outrageous! It’s Vic Bom who don’t use Th B word lightly. And if it’s B’ing at 1800m in Vic then surely it will ‘b’ at 2000m+ in NSW.

    And sounds wild outback so B ware!
     
  30. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    looks like BB does quite well out of the last? (Sat) Front in the system.

    possibly the most southerly airstreams in this system - so more of BB special?? POSs LMtn too?
     
  31. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Any one betting on no snow on Friday, apparently there is a 5% chance of that ?
    o_Oo_Oo_O
     
  32. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Ms.Bunn predicts more snow for Lake Mtn. this time around. @beefa skiing and I would usually be leaping at XC skiing this out of season gift but we are staying at home ….sigh :-( .
     
  33. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    From the BOM:

    Blizzard conditions are defined as strong winds in conjunction with blowing or falling snow with an expected reduction in horizontal visibility to less than 200 metres.

    So it doesn't necessarily mean high rates of snowfall, it's more high winds during a snowfall.
     
  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    And for the record EC/AXS-C going for >35 knt near resort level for much of tomorrow (check those downsloping 50 knot flags!).
    God forbid the wind on the peaks. And nothwithstanding the gusts.
     
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  35. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The drifts. If there’s a lot of snow!!
     
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  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yellow lenses required.
     
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  37. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perfectly reasonable to expect 5ft plus drifts
    Imo.
    Maybe even last through until june.
    Maybe
     
  38. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes think it will last above 1700
     
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  39. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Have to be a lot of mild temps and rain for it to disappear
     
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  40. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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  41. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  42. Stephen Allen

    Stephen Allen Addicted

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    BOM says "possible blizzard conditions" for TTS Saturday in latest forecast.
     
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  43. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Most likely because one of the complex lows is forecast to go into low 970's mbs just south of tassy.

    High Seas Weather Warning for METAREA 10
    Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, BNOC
    At 2045UTC 30 April 2020
    SITUATION AT 1800UTC
    Complex low pressure system with main low 989 hPa near 45S144E. Low forecast
    980 hPa near 48S147E at 010000UTC, 970 hPa near 47S145E at 010600UTC, 973hPa near 44S145E at 011200UTC and 975hPa near 41S146E at 011800UTC.
     
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  44. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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  45. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    The low is further east now the ascat sample was much earlier . The track and mb forecast by the bom was very good.
    2nd.
    WMBas262.png



    Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, BNOC
    At 0038UTC 2 May 2020
    SITUATION AT 0000UTC
    Complex low pressure system with main low 970hPa near 43S151E. Forecast 975hPa
    near 42S154E at 020600UTC, 981hPa near 42S157E at 021200UTC, 981hPa near
    43S160E at 021800UTC and 983hPa near 44S163E at 030000UTC.


    aus_409_20200502-1130.png