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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Jellybeans, Apr 21, 2020.
Sensible in the change-over seasons.
Being optimistic here if the cmc can keep on serve Then the Northern Tablelands may see something as well.
In July this would be possible. In April it’s hopecasting by some confused computers.
EC 00z on meteo-paper:
Craddling High may come in earlier imo.
Wow. EC de terms not holding back this morning.
On the ‘roids.
Carrying it right through the w/e.
Ensembles appearing more into it too.
Now we just need some run trend.
EC Tuesday to Saturday:
Better get on to that kids touring ski project i thought about last weekend.
12Z summary, purely to highlight the divergence:
EC spitting out 30-50cm with snow down to ~1000m at times
GFS spitting out 10-20cm with snow down to ~1000m at times
The Canadian spitting out ~20cm with snow down to ~800m at times (with snow on Northern Tablelands as @stormkite2000 points to)
Gonna be a fun week watching the models battle this one out.
Fair bit of troughing in the NW, this system looks to draw in along of moisture ahead of it as a result.
Pre-frontal moisture looks great from an (SE Aus) agricultural POV.
Mountains and the NE to do exceptionally well.
Most of VIC to get at least 20mm in theory, except for the Mallee. With good falls from South Gippsland/Eastern Melb to the ACT.
And EC doubling down in terms of snowfall. Let’s see if it keeps going later today.
EC off it’s head this morning.
edited to add the candy plots.
12Z UKmet still just short of the 30th looking ok not flat lining its amplifying
Models are struggling IMO
Models are indicating a strong signal atm. In reality it looks the to me the season is forward by about 3 weeks. Expect the unexpected.
Just to clarify another point 700mb temps only need to be -4c for big flakes on the ranges when 500mb is running @ -20/25c. Will sit back an watch and see how this
anom pans out.
Off the date range... But some decent things around the 7th of May as well
Would not be the first time. Or the last.
Oh, indeed. I should have used the word "probable", rather than "possible".
The 00z canuck held serve on the run. Big feature.
BoM pretty late with the next 4-dayer if that's any indicator.
EC not backing down.
She remains big
Yeah that run was heading into cmc territory.
Ukmet 00z also amplifies the trough north up-to the border.
leave it here.
Isn't it funny that when the world shuts down a bit, stops polluting we get a bit of good weather.
Just a thought
^Top quality banter.
…Anyways, EC (Windy.com) has downgraded my totals to 16–17 cm, from 24 cm last run. Still a hefty fall for being this early in the season.
Some solid figures down south as well for the MR.
GFS is also starting to get towards the EC/CMC program.
Looks like early snow related LOCK DOWN FOMO is coming . 10-15 cms is Op shop Rock hopper XC ski able at Baw Baw.
Cabramurra now has a 1° C maximum temp forecast on the 30th. Still a good 3° C off its 1995 record (–1.7° C), and 2° C off 2008's (–1.0° C), but nonetheless cold.
BOM backing it, almost a week out.
BOM are on board for some snow based Lock down related FOMO at Baw Baw. The snow cameras will tell the tale. Baw Baw is XC skiable with just 10-15 cms.
Wednesday 29 April
Showers or snow.
Possible rainfall: 15 to 20 mm
Chance of any rain: 95%
Thursday 30 April
Possible rainfall: 10 to 25 mm
Chance of any rain: 95%
Friday 1 May
Possible rainfall: 6 to 15 mm
The 2 headed beast . 3 Hourly
What sort of snow level for vic out of this system? 1000m?
Was looking on my phone and it was telling me snow for ‘woods point’which is at about 750m asl
Yeah I’d say 900m at the moment. Isn’t Woods Point more like 600m? Not that kind of cold.
Don't tell me these things :-0. That would mean Lake Mtn. and Mt. Margaret Gap could be possibly totally skiable !! However they have shut the front gates at LM and we are banned from driving out of town due to the Lock Down.
Great things come to those who are patient.
Yep I just googled it, which says woods point is 680m asl jelly.
Atm it has a snow icon next to it but suspect it will disappear
EC sees that 537 thickness asper the cmc. Just not as far north.
Ms.Bunn's automated modelling is frothing for some out of season XC skiing for those who live near the usual ski locations .
NEXT 7 DAYS
Mt Buller: 28cm
Mt Hotham: 22cm
Falls Creek: 14cm
Mt Baw Baw: 38cm
Charlotte Pass: 67cm
Lake Mountain: 30cm
Mt Stirling: 26cm
Ben Lomond: 36cm
Mt Mawson: 22cm
The automated modelling is saying 52 cm at Baw Baw over the next TEN days . What if it were true! :-0
Crazy town!! Latest gfs
@Mister Tee on XC Skis
Pretty much what you would expect given the current modeling. As a rule of thumb @ under a 540 dam moisture will always fall as snow not rain.
Yes, some of it will fall as the R*** word however it will be rock hopper friendly for those of us not under house arrest. .There will be some surf too .I do not live at beach either :-(
That'll get people off Bondi Beach
Hasn't gone away this morning
Goodness, BOM has Bendigo going for 10degs on Thursday, that would equal the record max for April.
Once this system turns south westerly, we will get belted throughout the strezleckis! Just saw a max of 9c Thursday and 8c for Friday up here!! Not a bad effort for this time of year.
Not ideal on EC, significant pre frontal followed by a shadowing Southerly fetch.
Other models look good.
Big divergence in positioning of the low.
TWC upgraded to a 1° C max here, and a 0° C max for Cabramurra…wintry!
Warrnambool to Port Lincoln, NW Vic and then 'around' atm
It's forked IMO.
Low is too far east.
Pressure is too high.