Predictions 29th April-2nd May

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Jellybeans, Apr 21, 2020.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Sensible in the change-over seasons.
     
  2. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Being optimistic here if the cmc can keep on serve Then the Northern Tablelands may see something as well.
     
  3. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    In July this would be possible. In April it’s hopecasting by some confused computers.

    IMO.
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  5. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Craddling High may come in earlier imo.
     
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wow. EC de terms not holding back this morning.
    On the ‘roids.
    Carrying it right through the w/e.
    Ensembles appearing more into it too.
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Now we just need some run trend.
    EC Tuesday to Saturday:
     
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  8. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Better get on to that kids touring ski project i thought about last weekend.
     
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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    12Z summary, purely to highlight the divergence:
    EC spitting out 30-50cm with snow down to ~1000m at times
    GFS spitting out 10-20cm with snow down to ~1000m at times
    The Canadian spitting out ~20cm with snow down to ~800m at times (with snow on Northern Tablelands as @stormkite2000 points to)

    Gonna be a fun week watching the models battle this one out.
     
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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Fair bit of troughing in the NW, this system looks to draw in along of moisture ahead of it as a result.
    Pre-frontal moisture looks great from an (SE Aus) agricultural POV.
     
  11. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mountains and the NE to do exceptionally well.


    Most of VIC to get at least 20mm in theory, except for the Mallee. With good falls from South Gippsland/Eastern Melb to the ACT.

    And EC doubling down in terms of snowfall. Let’s see if it keeps going later today.
     
  12. Gototakahashi

    Gototakahashi Hard Yards

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    EC off it’s head this morning.
     
  13. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    gem-all-aus-thck_1000-500-8248000.png 12z CMC.











    edited to add the candy plots.




    12Z UKmet still just short of the 30th looking ok not flat lining its amplifying
    ukmet-wmo-aus-mslp_anom-8075200.png
     
    #63 stormkite2000, Apr 24, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2020
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  14. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Models are struggling IMO
     
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  15. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Models are indicating a strong signal atm. In reality it looks the to me the season is forward by about 3 weeks. Expect the unexpected.
    Just to clarify another point 700mb temps only need to be -4c for big flakes on the ranges when 500mb is running @ -20/25c. Will sit back an watch and see how this
    anom pans out.
     
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  16. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Off the date range... But some decent things around the 7th of May as well
     
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  17. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  18. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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  19. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    The 00z canuck held serve on the run. Big feature.
    gem-all-aus-z500_anom-8248000.png
     
  20. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM pretty late with the next 4-dayer if that's any indicator.
     
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  21. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC not backing down.
    She remains big
     
  22. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  23. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Yeah that run was heading into cmc territory.

    ecmwf-deterministic-aus-z500_anom-8204800.png ecmwf-deterministic-aus-vort500_z500-8204800.png
     
  24. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Ukmet 00z also amplifies the trough north up-to the border.
    ukmet-wmo-aus-mslp_anom-8118400.png
    leave it here.
     
  25. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Off topic,

    Isn't it funny that when the world shuts down a bit, stops polluting we get a bit of good weather.
    Just a thought
     
  26. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler One of Us

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    ^Top quality banter.

    …Anyways, EC (Windy.com) has downgraded my totals to 16–17 cm, from 24 cm last run. Still a hefty fall for being this early in the season.
     
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  27. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some solid figures down south as well for the MR.

    GFS is also starting to get towards the EC/CMC program.
     
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  28. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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  29. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler One of Us

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    Maragle, NSW; 948 m AMSL; 35° 51’ 30.06” S
    Cabramurra now has a 1° C maximum temp forecast on the 30th. Still a good 3° C off its 1995 record (–1.7° C), and 2° C off 2008's (–1.0° C), but nonetheless cold.
     
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  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM backing it, almost a week out.

    Thredbo:
     
  31. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    BOM are on board for some snow based Lock down related FOMO at Baw Baw. The snow cameras will tell the tale. Baw Baw is XC skiable with just 10-15 cms.





    Wednesday 29 April
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 6
    Max 7
    Showers or snow.
    Possible rainfall: 15 to 20 mm
    Chance of any rain: 95% [​IMG]
    Thursday 30 April
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -1
    Max 0
    Snow showers.
    Possible rainfall: 10 to 25 mm
    Chance of any rain: 95% [​IMG]
    Friday 1 May
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -2
    Max 1
    Snow showers.
    Possible rainfall: 6 to 15 mm
     
  32. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    The 2 headed beast . 3 Hourly
     
  33. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    What sort of snow level for vic out of this system? 1000m?

    Was looking on my phone and it was telling me snow for ‘woods point’which is at about 750m asl
     
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  34. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah I’d say 900m at the moment. Isn’t Woods Point more like 600m? Not that kind of cold.
     
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  35. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Don't tell me these things :-0. That would mean Lake Mtn. and Mt. Margaret Gap could be possibly totally skiable !! However they have shut the front gates at LM and we are banned from driving out of town due to the Lock Down.
     
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  36. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Great things come to those who are patient.
     
  37. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Yep I just googled it, which says woods point is 680m asl jelly.
    Atm it has a snow icon next to it but suspect it will disappear
     
  38. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    EC sees that 537 thickness asper the cmc. Just not as far north.

    2020-04-24 20_16_05-ecmwf-deterministic-aus-thck_1000-500-8204800 - Windows Photo Viewer.png

     
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  39. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Ms.Bunn's automated modelling is frothing for some out of season XC skiing for those who live near the usual ski locations .
    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-hotham
    NEXT 7 DAYS
    Mt Buller: 28cm
    Mt Hotham: 22cm
    Falls Creek: 14cm
    Mt Baw Baw: 38cm
    Perisher: 48cm
    Thredbo: 43cm
    Charlotte Pass: 67cm
    Selwyn: 23cm
    Lake Mountain: 30cm
    Mt Stirling: 26cm
    Ben Lomond: 36cm
    Mt Mawson: 22cm

    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-baw-baw
    The automated modelling is saying 52 cm at Baw Baw over the next TEN days . What if it were true! :-0
     
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  40. Dylan Kearney

    Dylan Kearney Hard Yards

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    Crazy town!! Latest gfs
    500hpa
     

    Attached Files:

  41. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    @Mister Tee on XC Skis
    Pretty much what you would expect given the current modeling. As a rule of thumb @ under a 540 dam moisture will always fall as snow not rain.
     
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  42. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Yes, some of it will fall as the R*** word however it will be rock hopper friendly for those of us not under house arrest. .There will be some surf too .I do not live at beach either :-(
     
  43. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    That'll get people off Bondi Beach
     
  44. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hasn't gone away this morning
     
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  45. glug1

    glug1 Addicted

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    Goodness, BOM has Bendigo going for 10degs on Thursday, that would equal the record max for April.
     
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  46. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Once this system turns south westerly, we will get belted throughout the strezleckis! Just saw a max of 9c Thursday and 8c for Friday up here!! Not a bad effort for this time of year.
     
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  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not ideal on EC, significant pre frontal followed by a shadowing Southerly fetch.
    Other models look good.
    Big divergence in positioning of the low.
     
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  48. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler One of Us

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    TWC upgraded to a 1° C max here, and a 0° C max for Cabramurra…wintry!

    [​IMG]
     
    #98 Adaminaby Angler, Apr 25, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2020
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  49. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Warrnambool to Port Lincoln, NW Vic and then 'around' atm
     
  50. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's forked IMO.
    Low is too far east.
    Pressure is too high.
     
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