Predictions 29th April-2nd May

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Jellybeans, Apr 21, 2020.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mid mountain?
    I believe her meteos are direct EC output, so same as YrNo.
    The calibration of EC published temps in the Aus Alps has been the topic of discussion for a few years. I wouldn't take too much notice of the temps (vs elevation) as they can be off IMO.
     
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  2. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes, mid mountain (1650m)
     
  3. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    If you want my opinion on the reasoning (and it's just a hunch), I reckon EC's meteo output is a 2m height output (like GFS here) when land intercepts that pressure height taking into considering albedo, thermal heating etc. likely increasing the plot a couple of degrees above that of a free-air temp plot.
     
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  5. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler One of Us

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    Just lol @ 750 m snow levels in the C Tablelands, not a chance IMO.

    I'm in the 7 cm region; Cabramurra 20 cm, with the alpine ranges heading for 30–40 cm:

    [​IMG]

    Snow levels appear to drop to about 700–750 m AMSL (36°–35° S), so a reasonable chance for Batlow, and a sure chance for Kunama and upwards (950+ m). 35°–34° S snow levels appear confined to 800–900 m; 34°–33° S above 1,000 m (former) and > 1,100 m (latter). There appears to be no snow at all north of 33.5° S, however.
     
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    *Southern Tablelands.
     
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  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Crookwell (885m ASL) showing snowfall on MetEye Friday AM.
     
  8. rowdyflat

    rowdyflat One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Its too early for the snow to remain but the big dump may put psychological pressure on the ski fields to lobby the gubbermint..
     
  9. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    100%
    Does well on these type of tassie rain shadow systems.
    Moisture travelling up the west side of the ranges.
     
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  10. Snowmaker7

    Snowmaker7 One of Us

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    Sure will stir us all up if this one comes off like it looks. I know off topic, but our Jindy holiday house manager rang us yesterday and said the resorts had a meeting and they came to the conclusion that opening will be September best case scenario.

    Our closest snow chase option on the ranges over 1000m is just up behind Crookwell on Grabben Gullen Rd, always seems to do well. This setup (if cold enough) sure does look like one that favours areas like Crookwell
     
  11. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    Holy shite. September!!
    Thankfully my house has a permanent resident this winter.
     
  12. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just in time to watch it all melt away.
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
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  14. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Some impressive min/max temps for this time of year, Thursday night into Friday.
    So I thought I’d share some locations around my area south east vic(these places are all around the foothills south of mt baw baw gippsland)

    Icy creek - 547m asl
    Min 3c max 5c

    Neerim junction - 488m asl
    Min 4c max 6c

    Tanjil bren - 700m asl
    Min 1c max 5c

    Fumina - 494m asl
    Min 3c max 6c

    Noojee - 275m asl
    Min 5c max of 7c

    These figures are as things stand tonight
     
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 06Z winding back a bit on that cold air.
    Here comes that 4 day rule.
     
  16. Cam Slee

    Cam Slee One of Us

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    Falls Creek Min -4 Max -2
    Mt Hotham Min -5 Max -2

    On Friday, with snow showers.
     
  17. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Location:
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    Cause.
    Tasman low.
     
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  18. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    It's still a decent system.
    For April.
     
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  19. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's got potential. For sure.
    Problem is trend...
    As the low falls further Sou East.... Pressure is high once the cold dry air arrives.
    I've literally seen hundreds of these Tasman lows promise... Then under deliver.
    Sorry to be the pessimist.
     
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, positioning is everything.

    I'll wait for the Euro 12z.
     
  21. Cam Slee

    Cam Slee One of Us

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    Trouble it will snow, get everyone's expectations up, and then melt.
    Just like it always does.
    No guarantee of a ski season yet.
     
  22. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    Being the pessimist is absolutely fine. I just can't help but think with most models aligning this far out that this system will deliver.
    Also, it's the first proper system of the season. We all always get most excited at these. Both back at WZ and here on ski.
     
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  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    OCF Friday & Saturday (to 1600hrs) respectively.
     
  24. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Maybe it's a reflection of the lack of a ski season. Sorry. This was the first time I got proper excited last year.
     
  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Belter of a system that one:


    IMO, across all majors I think we'll still see 15-25cm above 1300m, with snow down to 800m at times in Vic.
    If Vic BoM doesn't use the B word by Wednesday's Publication I'll eat my hat (BoM NSW never would).
     
  26. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 00z to be fair, is being quite generous.


    Baw Baw’s temps look a little flukey perhaps, so Buller could end up the victor from that SW flow. 15-30cm sounds about right for the rest for me. As usual, it does rely on the actual specifics on the day.
     
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  27. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Did notice on accessg tonight that I looked like the low had bombed/deepened a heap more whilst sucking a little more warmer air into the system? But gfs still looked really good imo
     
  28. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Don’t worry about ACCESS ;)
     
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  29. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Don't think i posted the 00z Ukmet. Letting the model talk.
    ukmet-wmo-aus-z500_anom-1587859200-1588204800-1588204800-20.gif
     
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  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The Wentworth Wanderer.
     
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  31. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Que Sera, Sera Ski Pass: Gold

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    I predict that I should order my firewood from next week.
     
  32. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    EC06z
    ecmwf-deterministic-aus-z500_anom-8204800.png
    Getting pumped a little further North by the ridge in the lower belt.
     
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  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ensembles precip still healthy Friday/Sat for NSW, siding with OCF IMO.
     
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  34. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Cant recall seeing a -4 anom so far north this early.
    ecmwf-deterministic-aus-z500_norm_anom-8204800.png
     
  35. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Que Sera, Sera Ski Pass: Gold

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  36. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    If the great leader (sic) lets us out of Melb. and we get some snow falls like this system promises then I will see plank action in our state forest locations above 1300 M. in 2020.
    Ms. Bunn's computer modelling looks like Lake Mtn. will get a big snow fall on Friday May 1st. The sort that ski resorts and XC ski nuts all dream about!
    http://www.janebunn.net/lake-mountain
    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-stirling
    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-baw-baw
     
  37. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    06 Runs have not backed off in the slightest.
     
  38. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    If only Thursday flood was snow not rain but alas, Oz, esp in April doesn’t work like that.

    Still Friday could deliver; maybe Saturday is the go for local isolated BCers? (lucky Bs!)
     
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  39. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    ukmet-wmo-aus-z500_anom-8334400.png ukmet 06z
     
  40. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    A decent frost this morning on Jindy North Shore
     
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  41. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just noting the energy and power in that rainfall on Wednesday (Buller). 12mm in an hour.

    It seems to have taken a turn towards being strongest in the VIC resorts.

    Mount Perisher EC also continuing with the 15-30cm theme across the major resorts.
     
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  42. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    FOMO is increasing. IMHO this weather system looks like XC skiing will be possible on Saturday for a select few who live near the usual locations .
     
  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Stay on Topic.
    FOMO and Trip intentions can be posted in Snow Talk.
     
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  44. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    The canvass was no different on 18z EC.
    ecmwf-deterministic-aus-z500_anom-8204800.png
     
  45. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's a truly beautiful day on the Jindy North Shore
     
  46. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    When this anom begins passing across the states. It's likely where the relative vorticity is in 20 25+ there will be a decent line thunderstorms in the front east boundary. Some of them maybe very strong.
     
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  47. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Ovens and Kiewa rivers could see a good flush imo.
     
  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some good deep layer shear & SRH values.
    Well north of 35 knots!
     
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  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    ...And particularly potent around Western Vic 7-10am Wednesday.
     
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  50. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    As a precaution i would have cars under cover. Hail could be a issue. Just my thoughts.