Predictions 29th April-2nd May

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Jellybeans, Apr 21, 2020.

  1. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    All NE Vicco catchments will be placed under a Flood Watch as early as tomorrow.

    Will post BOM Severe Weather Advice tomorrow.
     
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  2. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Maybe some thundersnow in some parts on Thursday afternoon too....
     
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  3. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    And the veering to go with it.
     
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  4. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's going to be quite serious closer to Melbourne as well.
     
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  5. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Todays 4* dayer. Looking better
    [​IMG]
     
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  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    This is the GFS Sounding grabbed just North of Portland, Vic, 10am Wednesday.
    Green annotations highlighting low level instab, deep layer shear and veering. With a nice little upper level thermal cap to throw into the mix for some hail growth.


    Strong bow on the Hodographs too.
     
  7. Snowmaker7

    Snowmaker7 One of Us

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    Bathurst at 10pm Wednesday. Wed evening is probably when the main squall line/storms will move through central NSW IMO. Very strong SRH and SWEAT index values. Definitely tornado and hail risk
     
  8. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Thinking myself the storms line boundry may reach as far north as brisbane as it moves east vigorously . As before just my thinking atm.
     
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  9. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Low pushes 200km NE and bam
     
  10. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Icon 00z front boundary is (sic) powerful on the run.

     
  11. Cam Slee

    Cam Slee One of Us

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    Might be snow across the Tawonga Gap or even in Mt Beauty this Friday by the way the forecasters are talking.
    Anyway, a day off today so brought a s##t load of red gum inside in preparation. Still more to bring in.
    Nice sunny day, no wind. The calm before the storm.
     
  12. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Impressive Neg Helicity. From what i understand- just before heavy rain we sometimes see shear vectors turning counterclockwise with height ( particularly with a Low level Jet present).-- Hence the Neg Helicity and associated cold advection . @POW_hungry @stormkite2000 ?
     
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  13. Snowmaker7

    Snowmaker7 One of Us

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    I am not 100% sure myself, but if positive helicity is what we're meant to be looking at, everyone take cover now (LOL) Stormcast has positive values up to 1000!
     
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  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sorry mate, not too sure on neg helicity. Neg would indicate a left mover, no?
    Sounds more 'outflow' orientated than advection in my limited opinion.
    Calling @Ken Kato
     
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  15. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Will have to read up a bit more on Quasi Frontal Structures. I suspect that with much intensity there may be overcompensation in Density












    .
     
  16. Michael Hauber

    Michael Hauber One of Us

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    Not particularly liking the look of this system for storms in South East Queensland on the coast, but certainly possible. Too much westerly which means moisture struggles and we get rain shadow from the range. Should still get a strong change by our standards with strong winds and dropping temps, although nothing like down south. Storms in southern Qld to the west of the ranges look a better chance in my opinion.
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM not mincing words with precip figures.
    Thredbo:
     
  19. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nor wind forecasts
     
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow to 800m Friday as per BoM Vic advice. As expected IMO.
    900m for Southern Tablelands - BoM NSW.
     
  21. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  22. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    West & south gippsland snow to 1000m Thursday and 900m Friday.
    Where u see 800m pow?
     
  23. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    To me, looking at all the min/max around gippsland area it reads more like snow down to 7-800m mark later Thursday into Friday imo
     
  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  25. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Edit above now included.
     
  27. jish33

    jish33 Early Days

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    Max of 7 forecast for Canberra on Friday and 6 degrees in the North Eastern suburbs in Gungahlin. This seems laughable, doubt temps will stay this low for the whole day.

    Even if it did, won't be a May record, given the late May 2000 blizzard event maxed out at about 4c here with 2 consecutive days of snowfall.
     
  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Should not be compared to May 2000 system IMO.

    OCF shooting for max of 7 for Canberra Friday. Seems reasonable to me.
     
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  29. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Max temps will be determined by cloud cover IMO
    Looks quite cloudy for Gungahlin
     
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  30. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    They'll be an element of luck involved I think.
     
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  31. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    2020-04-27 17_22_37-Meteologix.com.png

    Guess we see when it in motion.That line with the nice close curves moves over as far north as bris.Things can change of coarse. Nobody as far as i know was predicting extended heavy rainfall north of the nsw boarder.
     
  32. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Min of 4c and max of 7c Thursday night into Friday for where I am in the strezleckis. Don’t think I’ve seen those sort of temps for this time of year in the 8 years I’ve been here
     
  33. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler One of Us

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    BoM (MetEye) now forecasting a 0° C maximum temp here!

    [​IMG]

    –2° C maximum temp for Cabramurra:

    [​IMG]
     
  34. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    535 thickness line forecast for cbr @ thursday.
    2020-04-27 18_52_22-GDPS_ WeatherBell Charts.png

    If the dam verifys then moisture should fall as snow.
     
  35. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    BOM and Ms. Bunn are fully behind some XC skiable snow falling on the Baw Baw Plateau.
    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-baw-baw
    //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

    Thursday 30 April

    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 1
    Max 3
    Snow showers increasing.
    Possible rainfall: 5 to 10 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    West and South Gippsland area
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers. Snow falling above 1000 metres. The chance of a thunderstorm. Possible hail in the evening. Light winds becoming west to northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h during the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 5 and 9 with daytime temperatures reaching between 8 and 15.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Friday 1 May
    Summary.
    [​IMG]
    Min -3
    Max -1
    Snow showers.
    Possible rainfall: 15 to 20 mm
    Chance of any rain: 95% [​IMG]
    West and South Gippsland area
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers. Snow falling above 900 metres. The chance of a thunderstorm near Wilsons Promontory in the morning. Possible hail. Winds westerly 25 to 40 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 2 and 7 with daytime temperatures reaching between 6 and 12.

    Saturday 2 May
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -2
    Max 2
    Snow showers.
    Possible rainfall: 6 to 15 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
     
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  36. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    Feel free to move to Snow Talk @POW_hungry - we thinking snow for CT's Thursday night/Friday? I could be "working" up there in Blackheath around then..
     
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  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Might be a push to get moisture onto the BMs (Blackheath) IMO. if it’s got any chance in the wee hours of Friday AM IMO.

    Oberon should see flakes Thursday night, however.
     
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  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Trough due 4am-10am Thursday throughout the alps looks huge.

    Could've grabbed a flukey sounding but anyone seen a bigger DGZ plotted for the Aus Alps?
    The ~160mb depth would see saucer-sized flakes falling (if they weren't shredded to oblivion by the winds).

    Half an inch of PW and stunning SRH values. Volatile.

    GFS (06z) 10am:
     
  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM was overly keen to get today's NSW mountain district forecast out:
     
  40. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Stellar dendrites... Apply within.
    Please bring storm jib and three reefs to the main.
     
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  41. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    I predict sartorial puffy enroute to work Friday upper BMs
     
  42. Rat trap bindings

    Rat trap bindings One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    And different models show big variation. Is the BOM forecast for Thredbo top station?
     

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  43. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    I wouldn't believe a word that site says.
     
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  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think the more you pay in membership the more snow they forecast.
     
  45. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    They actually have a membership service? Lol.
     
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  46. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  47. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Much more Bullish for wind than Vic Alps. Perhaps the extra 300m makes all the difference?
     
  48. Rat trap bindings

    Rat trap bindings One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    What conversation from mm rain to snow depth is being assumed?
     
  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think BoM NSW precip numbers are quite bullish and could be rationalised this arvo. You can largely expect 1mm = 0.7-1cm for Aus most of the time.

    Personally, I think you can expect on average 15-25cm of snow on the ground in the resorts by Friday arvo, IMO.
     
  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    More a case of Vic BoM being conservative IMO.

    Unanimous agreement on the models suggests gale force winds likely with the frontal passage, at resort level. Gust +100km/h.