Predictions 29th April-2nd May

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Jellybeans, Apr 21, 2020.

  1. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Just wondering if I could sneak up into the Westfall ,its not that far away but probably have my hands full at the end of this for a couple of days.
     
  2. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  3. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's May*
    Models were strong... Then faltered a bit on specific low placement. Then EC came in hard with that bass strait low.
    It was a case of a upswing....
     
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  4. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Two Foot TM.

    :whistle:

    Its surprising but not at the same time. It did have a vibe about it 4 days ago, but aways looked to cutoff..
     
  5. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Ms. Bunn's modelling has backed away from recent computer predictions at Lake Mtn. and possible total snow falls. It looks generally wet , with that clear damp stuff that isn't skiable.
    http://www.janebunn.net/lake-mountain
    Sneaking up in the pre dawn dark ;-P to Mt.Margaret Gap and Keppel's hut must be worth it for plank action if one were to even consider such a thing in any event or circumstances.
    Whereas the Baw Baw plateau above 1500 M still looks good for some out of season plank action and chook footing.
    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-baw-baw
    and above 1550 M. at Mt.Stirling
    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-stirling
    Lower down the hill at 1250 M. TBJ looks like it could just be wet and with some sago added to the R***.However I will watch the snow cameras and see what happens.
    Seeing snow even via the web cameras will provide us ski forum users with some cheerful distractions. We live in hope that our great leader will let us leave Melbourne by mid June!!!
     
  6. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    May 28 2000. This event does not look too dissimilar.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #356 7wombathead, Apr 28, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 28, 2020
  7. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Late May 2019 gave us Mexicans an early start to the ski season. It even looked like that is all we would get in terms of 20-30 cms in one big dump of snow for what seemed like months until August 2020 arrived.
     
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    AT BEST it can be compared to May 27-31 last year.
    Got nothing on May 2000 IMO.
     
  9. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I there an obs thread for this already ? NM I will have a look.
     
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  10. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    To keep it consistent. 27th to 29 May 2019 looked the goods too.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  11. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Forecasted GFS looks way more intense (957Hpa) than last year and the shape and movement of the cold pool looks more similar to 28th May 2000. See changes extra loop above (just added).

    But I Must add I have not so much fun on this forum since watching you guys talk this up in 2000. I learned a lot that year from here.

    [​IMG]
     
  12. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    BOM are staying with 20 cm of snow for Baw Baw. 20 cm of snow is more than sufficient for XC skiing on the village trails at Baw Baw. However the resort at Baw Baw is closed due to the LOCKDOWN and travelling to ski is also still verboten in VIC. .
     
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  13. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Its a bit off-topic but I wonder why there is such a big difference between states. Anyhow, I heard the trout fishing is Good in the Thredbo and Snowy River, if you can make it over the Border. LOL.

    Looks to have downgraded and upgraded on the last runs. Have to wait and see.
     
  14. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Nice shot of the low still developing as moving into the strait.
     
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  15. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Looks wicked. Just has the perfect hook
     
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  16. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    EC 18Z showing a nice back end for Friday am.
     
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  17. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Autumn flurries on Friday :D
     
  18. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Full 18z ec.
     
  19. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Date Range extended- Very likely to see snowfalls persisting into Saturday morning.
     
  20. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    12z ukmet
    1st -3rd.
     
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  21. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    EC 4pm Friday = Blizzard conditions imo.
     
  22. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    A bit off topic,

    When trying to compare this system i think it slots in between 2009 & 2019,
    IMO it can not compare to 2000 as it was bigger & a month later, the same for 2019 allbeit a bit less of a punch, evident by the later pictures below the 2000 dump was there to stay whilst 2019 melted out.


    How ever i think it will be bigger then 2009, as we have experienced IMO marginally better temps in 2009 (Excluding April) i think this system will cool things right down. In addition there looks to be a follow up event on the cards which might just put the base into a "permanent" state until the end of the season, or at least have snow on the ground in times when 2009 did not, of course depending what happens later in the next 2 months.


    Just a thought, back to the predictions ;)
     
  23. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Already sampling 40 knots that will likely increase with further strengthening.
     
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  24. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    2000 was a once in a generation storm.
     
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  25. Medicine_Shoes

    Medicine_Shoes Hard Yards

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    Jane Bunn has upgraded her snowfall totals for the Vic resorts. Just over half a metre for the majors now.
     
  26. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  27. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  28. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Sat-pic of the developing complex low. Also the mass of speckle cloud in the cold air mass
    aus_409_20200429-1230.png
    .
     
  29. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    You mean the automated totals on her website?
     
  30. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    they are quite conservative down here aren’t they? Wind/rain/snow cm & heights?

    not sure there as into the snow & mtns thing as NSW? Maybe I’m a tough marker?

    But they’re very into farm-weather watches like sheep, downy mildew and brown rot! (;-)

    They do provide snow levels much more in Vic these days - I like to think the subtle bellyaching has made a difference! :)-)
     
  31. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Almost three days or 72 hrs of Hooking Cutoff Low. That's Rare.

    [​IMG]
     
  32. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Being a right handed golfer i'm struggling with the hook description. Its a power slice coming in over tassie to the tight pin in the alps.
     
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  33. Boodwah

    Boodwah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    2015 also delivered a cheeky 30cm skiable dump on BawBaw, down to 600m
    http://boodoir.blogspot.com/2015/05/blog-post.html?m=1
     
  34. Medicine_Shoes

    Medicine_Shoes Hard Yards

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    Thats the one. Where is the modeling sourced from?
     
  35. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC Deterministic
     
  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Friday arvo on EC.
    Wow.
     
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  37. Cookthebooks

    Cookthebooks Hard Yards

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    Baw 29th April 09
     

    Attached Files:

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  38. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    ???
     
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  39. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    This. Cold, moisture, what more could you want.

    That fetch, as Bunn would say, straight from Antactica.
    That low wraps it around perfectly.
     
  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS plot highlights it well too but EC is even better. You’ll be seeing some exceptional fall rates Friday’s arvo IMO.

    700-400mb PW is as good as you’ll ever see for snow in Aus IMO.
    This ‘uppercut’ Friday arvo is the kind of scenario that matches systems in the PacNor West. Absolutely loaded with moisture, and we’re fortunate enough to see supportive temps.


    1ft+ is possible Friday arvo alone IMO.
    Positioning of the low is spot on.
     
  41. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 18z is on for 3 feet plus.


    That’s 95cm metric, shit got real quick.
    Love those short term model rebounds.
     
  42. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    ^^^

    Thanks lads.

    What an update just 48 hrs out. Lets hope it plays out.
     
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  43. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    CMC 00z showing two lows in the complex. The tight one willbe in the strait on the 1st thinks cmc on the run. Looks closed @700mb.
    gem-all-aus-z500_anom-8312800.png gem-all-aus-vort700_z700-8312800.png .


    .
     

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  44. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Full.
     
  45. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    She certainly is a lively little beast . Impressive upper flow pushing hastily and creating Deep Layer Shear instability towards the 100 kmh mark overnight.
     
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  46. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    More moisture please
     
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  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Put a bucket under you downpipes...
     
  48. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dear Liza

    All the buckets are full, need 200mm of just straight up rain to fill the dams, creeks and sooth the land
     
  49. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    OCF SAT-SUN-MON min temps forecast atm.
    temperature--air__min_syd_t10_00-072-2020042900z.png temperature--air__min_syd_t10_00-096-2020042900z.png temperature--air__min_syd_t10_00-120-2020042900z.png
     
  50. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    OFC today-monday precip forecast ATM.

    precip--precip_syd_t10_00-000-2020042900z.png precip--precip_syd_t10_00-024-2020042900z.png precip--precip_syd_t10_00-048-2020042900z.png precip--precip_syd_t10_00-072-2020042900z.png precip--precip_syd_t10_00-096-2020042900z.png precip--precip_syd_t10_00-120-2020042900z.png
     
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