Predictions 29th April-2nd May

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Jellybeans, Apr 21, 2020.

  1. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Ms.Bunn's modelling is now saying 50 cm for Baw Baw, Mt. Stirling and Lake Mtn. FFS!. and we are banned from going there and XC skiing on it. This is grim I tell you , grim.
     
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  2. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM updating NSW Snowies district for snow to 800m Friday. Winter tyres Jindy & maybe-just Cooma
    Reasonable IMO.
     
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  4. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Trust me, don’t worry.
    Enjoy the vibe. You don’t get this sort of system all the time.
     
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  5. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  6. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    I wonder if P.C.Plod is working along the Maroondah highway to
    Buxton and the Mt. Margaret road on Sat. or Sunday at 5 or 6 am ? ;-P
     
  7. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Do u think we’ll see snow to 800m in vic as well mate? Or vic snow level will stay as is at 900m
     
  8. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Insane moisture Progs for TS for Friday.
     
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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Actually insane.
     
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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It'll be touch and go if it does IMO
    FRI AM best chance
     
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  11. Onlybackscratchers

    Onlybackscratchers One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    $1600 odd for a day out. Heli-skiing rates!

    Now that is really earning your turns.

    I predict Saturday's Cams gunna be hard for all of us.
     
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  12. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    Won't be there till Friday night now. Damn.
     
  13. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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  14. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Winter tyres swapped back on yesterday in anticipation!

    Road clearing crews are at the ready based on the forecast. I can confirm first hand......
     
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  15. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I predict whoever skins up to top of funnel web saturday morning will be creaming thier undies.
     
  16. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    Between 68 and 136 mm's of precip for Thredbo TS over the next 3 days, all falling at or below 1 deg C.

    *Predicted
     
  17. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    10am Thursday - 10am Sunday EC 00z.
    Watch Friday.
    Oh my gawd.
    00z confirms the potential for 80-100cm falls on the MR peaks.

    Another upgrade for me personally, ~40-80cm for the major resorts.
     
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  18. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Captain Keen!
    and Sargent Stoke!
     
  19. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I'll shoot my initial 25cm to 50cm I expect it to back off a bit from 94cm max total to round 70
     
  20. Annago

    Annago Addicted

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    Easier to just head up from Dead Horse and have another car at the bottom.:)
     
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  21. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Does anyone know why AXS 3 day charts are no longer available on weatherzone?
     
  22. Cam Slee

    Cam Slee One of Us

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    Lightning and thunder everywhere around Mt Beauty, pissing down, a wall of water on the way according to the BOM radar.
    Still quite mild, the cold air is yet to hit.
    Mind you I have the fire going and am in a T-shirt and shorts.
     
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  23. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thredbo Top Station ?
     
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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Became redundant since last month IIRC.
    Access suite was migrated from APS2 to APS3 last year (+6 months or so for fallback crossover). So there's only AXS-G (~12km res) & AXS-C (~4km res) nowadays.
     
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  25. Cam Slee

    Cam Slee One of Us

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    Snow clearers at Mt Hotham will be working 24/7 in the next couple of days.
    Probably Falls Creek too.
     
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  26. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Thredbo 4pm Friday with that broad Dendritic Growth Zone. Hodograph candy also
     
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Flying saucers.
    EC should have 4-6mm/hr in 00z run.
    Goes real hard
     
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  28. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    There are some very contrasting Shear Profiles between the 3 hourly Skew T plots. Nature showing us the best of Gas Law Equilibrium working its hardest.
     
  29. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Battered flying saucers.
     
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  30. MarkV

    MarkV One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM forecasting blizzards on friday for Hotham.
     
  31. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hotham would average only 2-3 days per winter with a forecast like Friday?
     
  32. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    If only we could have cold moist weather systems like this 5 times per ski season, every year. We would be set !!
    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-hotham
    Even if you live in Harrietville and like to XC ski /BC ski I think it could be interesting getting up the Hot ham and cheese grilled on toast with tomato road.
     
  33. Cam Slee

    Cam Slee One of Us

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    No Alpine diesel available yet in Mt Beauty, that could be a problem on Friday.
    Oh well, a day off, just wait until the ice in the system melts.
     
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  34. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    If the Spanish can loan their dogs to people to walk for a fee just so they can escape the lockdown and go for a walk under the dog walking exception, then there must be a way to circumvent the VIC. restrictions and travel to ski. Maybe a forum member near the snow is a "family member" who needs special care and needs to be taken out for drive up to somewhere skiable as a compassionate and essential deed? ;-P.
     
  35. Winterwolf

    Winterwolf Hard Yards

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    BoM contact thinks 1 metre possible on main range. Just wow!
     
  36. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    BOM are now backing a some serious snow falling in the Yarra Ranges /Lake Mtn.

    Think of @teckel and all the would be customers renting snow play gear from her shop on the Maroondah Hwy. that she could have had in an alternative universe.

    /////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////


    Thursday 30 April
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 2
    Max 5
    Showers tending to snow.
    Possible rainfall: 4 to 10 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    North Central area
    Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Snow level lowering to 1000 metres by evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the late morning and afternoon. Possible small hail from the late morning. Winds south to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light early in the morning then becoming westerly 25 to 35 km/h in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to around 5 with daytime temperatures reaching between 10 and 14.

    Fire Danger - Low-Moderate

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    7 day Town Forecasts

    Precis Icon
    Location Min Max
    [​IMG] Seymour 5 14
    Friday 1 May
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 0
    Max 1
    Heavy snow showers possible.
    Possible rainfall: 20 to 50 mm
    Chance of any rain: 95% [​IMG]
    North Central area
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers, with possible hail during the day. Snow falling above 800 metres. Heavy falls possible in the east. Winds west to northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to around 4 with daytime temperatures reaching between 7 and 11.

    Sun protection recommended from 12:00 pm to 12:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

    Saturday 2 May
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 1
    Max 2
    Snow showers.
    Possible rainfall: 6 to 20 mm
    Chance of any rain: 95% [​IMG]
    North Central area
    Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers in the east, medium (50%) chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1300 metres. Winds westerly 15 to 25 km/h turning southwesterly during the afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 4 and 7 with daytime temperatures reaching between 8 and 12.

    Sun protection recommended from 11:30 am to 12:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]
     
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  37. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    BOM are on board for some Blizzard action at Baw Baw

    Friday 1 May
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -3
    Max -1
    Blizzards at times.

    Possible rainfall: 15 to 45 mm
    Chance of any rain: 95% [​IMG]
    West and South Gippsland area
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers, with possible hail during the day. Snow falling above 900 metres. The chance of a thunderstorm near the coast in the morning. Heavy falls possible. Winds west to northwesterly 25 to 40 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 2 and 7 with daytime temperatures reaching between 6 and 12.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Saturday 2 May
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -1
    Max 0
    Snow showers. Wind easing.
    Possible rainfall: 8 to 20 mm
    Chance of any rain: 95% [​IMG]
    West and South Gippsland area
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers. Snow falling above 1200 metres. Winds westerly 35 to 50 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 3 and 7 with daytime temperatures reaching between 7 and 14.
     
  38. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Trying to pretend it's not going to happen.
     
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  39. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    I bet @teckel that Lake Mtn. resort management would give their left gonads respectively for a snow fall like this one to happen in mid June in a restriction free world.
    http://www.janebunn.net/lake-mountain
     
  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Stay on Topic
     
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  41. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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  42. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Fizzzzzzahhhhhh
     
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  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just to keep expectations in check; the upper level cold pool tomorrow heads up the West of Vic/NSW so temps will be marginal for snow accumulations below ~1700m tomorrow IMO.
    Snow below this level at times but accumulations to be marginal IMO.

    EC 500mb temp 10am Thursday. Ideally you want these temps below -20ºC, and near 0ºC temps (or below) at resort level (850mb). Which isn't there for much of tomorrow... Just saying.


    850mb 10am Thursday, with all the business out West:
     
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  44. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    No such thing here? just saying
     
  45. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Friday looks v/good for vic alps. GFS thick high moist cloud.



    700mb level in the atmosphere gives you a good indication of how much thick cloud there will be values below 50% suggest the only snow will be from orographic forcing of low level clouds.
     
  46. dmz

    dmz More cheeeese Gromit Ski Pass: Gold

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    Enough to keep the Falls Creek underground glacier going!
     
  47. rowdyflat

    rowdyflat One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Nearly 70 mm here in Yackandandah from this event about 36 hrs .
    Lovely mr curly on the rain radar indicating part of the low rotating clockwise.
    9 degrees outside so getting close to snowing temperature on a NW wind.
     
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  48. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  49. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    EC 18Z - 850 hPa temps.
     
  50. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Does this look tasty or what?

    (new YR app update overnight)

     
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