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Predictions 29th Aug - 2nd Sept - The 2018 Apex System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Aug 19, 2018.

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  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I like the look of the LWT pushing through the SE around the 29th August through to the 2nd September.
    Ensembles signal a series of fronts through on this date range. NB. GEFS was not available for the 00z this arvo, so below is GFS Deterministic.

    Personally, I think we will reach peak seasonal snow depth in this range, with perhaps 30-50cm as a possible gain in the series of systems.

    EPS (EC Ensembles):


    GFS


    LWT peaked and located under SW WA on the 27th Aug:
    [​IMG]
     
  2. Tanuki

    Tanuki A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm booking
     
  3. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC looking very good.
    This period has been looking good for a while.
     
  4. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    I am with him...
     
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS Ensembles backing the 30th. 18z Determ says it's another cold outbreak. Not much alignment on timing, but all suggest something good here.
    [​IMG]
     
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  6. almontyrat

    almontyrat One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I predict the BC Festival and Southern Hemisphere Telemark Day on the 1st and 2nd respectively at Falls might be a tad wintery
     
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  7. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]

    9 oclock (the date-range for this thread)
    6 oclock
    and because why the **** not, 4 oclock

    Jesus
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Isle of Man spin cycle...
     
  9. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    The Energiser Bunny of snow seasons... just keeps going and going and going and going!

    #vivala2018
     
  10. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    00Z GFS seems to have delayed this one until August 31. Not a whole lot of precip either.
     
  11. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 00Z progression looking a bit confused atm imo.
     
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  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Seems closer to EC12z... as GFS the last few runs had it in a day earlier than EC on the 29th.
    Still lacks a lot of settlement.
     
  13. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Please tell me that more snow is coming on the 31/8/18- 3/9/18. :emoji_snowman:
    I missed out on skiing in powder snow yesterday :cry:because of an injury :eek: but I am XC skiing:skier: for sure on the next two weekends. BRING ON THE SNOW!!.:emoji_cloud_snow::emoji_snowflake:
     
  14. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  15. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Determ runs go up and down 10 days out. GFS in particular, but EC is not immune however.

    The major ensembles still show this coming to fruition.



    Stick with it, and we will start to see some more model joy over the next few days IMO.
     
  16. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Oh yes for sure. Its not going to go away totaly. At this early stage though i tend to throw everything into the probability pot to get the flavour of things so to speak.
     
  17. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wow - Not your everyday garden variety 300hPa Vorticity plot.
     
  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Models starting to build a bridge. Peaking quite early in the Bight on this morning’s run. This scenario draws in some moisture from the North.

    EC


    GFS - it’s bullish self... but I do like it’s progression, so if you scale it back 30-40% it’s looking good.


    The Canuck
     
  19. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us

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    hmmm , 5 days before 4 day rule !!! Still my glass never even gets as low as half full so 20 -30 cm for the lot seems reasonable at this point. Besides it falls into line for my next foray to the top of the hills. :thumbs::thumbs::thumbs::thumbs:
     
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  20. SkiMun

    SkiMun Part of the Furniture

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    Yes been watching this one for a while and I think the models are still struggling with this one. I have a feeling it will be big in one way or another. Spring is coming so I'd expect more erratic model behaviour.
     
  21. Feliks

    Feliks First Runs

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    Hoping it's ok either way. This system will arrive at Buller bang in the middle of Snow National UniGames so fingers crossed it leans positively and temps get cold enough. There seems to be disagreement amongst the models.
     
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  22. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    GFS definitely has a predisposition (boner) for more POW in OZ.:whistle: Be Interesting if EC can keep up.

    But might be some big rain in front of the node.:cry:

    Frothing to get the numbers (snow depth) back from Spencers Creek this week. Are we at 2.3 m yet? :confused:

    [​IMG]
     
  23. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC looks like a WA Peak at the moment.
    Still significant if it still manages to hit SE Australia.


    EPS still looking great.
     
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  24. SkiMun

    SkiMun Part of the Furniture

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    Pretty crazy scenario on the latest ECMWF...975hPa off Western Victoria on 30th. We'll see.
     
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  25. Tanuki

    Tanuki A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah that looks messy. Also a small ECL off Eden.
     
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  26. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    The Bluff Spur hut snow gauge at Mt. Stirling has passed 2 M. in snow depth. When has that happened over the past few years? This ski season just keeps on getting better!
     
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  27. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    00Z Access-G is a bit of an outlier. Major pukage possible on August 28...
     
  28. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    fwiw ^^
    [​IMG]
     
  29. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC just stopped in to say hi.
     
  30. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    yep.
    text book stuff.
    [​IMG]

    anom nom nom nom....
    [​IMG]
     
  31. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    ACCESS still looks interesting for the 28th.
     
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  32. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    models are still a bit scattered this am.
     
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  33. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
     
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  34. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Like this.

    GFS is playing ball as well.

    But not quite the beast.

    ACCESS and GFS don't agree with this, as @nfip said, models are a bit all over the shop.
     
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  35. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    The plot thickens with GFS looking more like Access-G. It has potential....
     
  36. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    EC likes it
     
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  37. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Holy moly, this system potentially looks like a monster!
     
  38. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    GFS off its head as always
     
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  39. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    none are really feeling too reliable. IMO.
    Canuck is siding with EC for now.
    [​IMG]

    GFS a day or so behind. for now.
    [​IMG]

    I think AXS is still processing it what to do with the trough and preceding cut-off system it's has come up with .....


     
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  40. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Looks like that's the 12z access-g run, waiting for the 00z update.
     
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  41. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC total snowfall precip ( inches)
     
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  42. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    If EC 00z comes to fruition, Spencer's Creek will probably end up above 3 metres.

    That doesn't even show the whole backend of the system.




    It's a seriously big system, just whether it will stick.
     
  43. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    If someone mentions that year of the last 3 metre season it's gonna bring a curse
     
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  44. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    00Z AXS looks to get ridged.
     
  45. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nice blue and orange - EC
     
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  46. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    And Yr No is off and racing.
     
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  47. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A quick glance at EC precip probabilities for 10am Sept 1 . circa 50% chance of over 20mm in the prev 24 hour period. Thats pretty damn amazing this far out imo.
     
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  48. cin

    cin Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    My god, am I seeing right?
    I just bought some new glasses and wondering if they are faulty.
    Very tempted to cop it in the hip pocket and roll the dice on this
     
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  49. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wind vectors comparison- ie Deep Layer Shear ( surface level compared with circa 500hPa level ) looking rather pronounced IMO. If this eventuates expect a little bit of Hodograph/ Skew T madness
     
  50. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Might need a translation of that for numpties like me @Kletterer!
     
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