Predictions 29th Aug - 2nd Sept - The 2018 Apex System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Aug 19, 2018.

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  1. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Its basicaly the difference in wind behavior through the altitudes. Speed and direction comparison. More pronounced = storm potential and Helicity and in some cases ( seasonaly)cyclonic updraft rotation
     
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  2. cin

    cin Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    YeH you might as well be speaking mandarin as far as I can understand,
     
  3. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cheers. So what this yachtie would call wind shear?
     
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  4. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    With directional instability as well
     
  5. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    Will it snow :whistle:
     
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  6. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  7. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Maybe..
     
  8. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wine.
    Limestone coast trio.
     
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  9. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Maybe a lot...
     
  10. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snowtunes this weekend. Ie next
    Is doof and no sleep vs empty lifts
     
  11. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    This is 6 hours earlier so we are looking at a major movement
     
  12. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Computer says yes...
     
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  13. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Still a long way out, could change tomorrow.
     
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  14. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Being that its currently saying 2ft of snow in ~30hrs its pretty likely to change.

    But it’s still there this morning.
     
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  15. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pushed back a touch. Still looks goooooood
     
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  16. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Next week both EC and Access-G have cold air persisting over SE Australia from Monday onwards with light SWlys. Not much precipitation, but it should preserve the cover.
     
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  17. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lol snowtunes weekend .
    They can ead
     
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  18. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    this ^and what @Hermon said.
    mixed bag still on tthe models.
    EC looking delish....
    the others still flapping with varying scenarios and timeframes.

    remembering it's all about the vibe !
     
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  19. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    and the vibe be goooood.

    and the ensembles.
    [​IMG]
     
  20. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think it looks a bit so so on EC.
    A tonne of rain Friday into Saturday.
    Way too warm
     
  21. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks good Saturday night. ..but I'd expect 50mm before the cold air arrives
     
  22. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yr.no numbers are literally half that at this stage.
     
  23. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah. ..but ECs numbers on the high res are high.
    Mind you . All the models are struggling with the low next Monday. So they'll struggle more with the following week .
     
  24. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    given it looks to peak over WA then slingshot at the back end, dragging some warm air and moisture does look pretty likely at this stage.
     
  25. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Yes mud bath
     
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  26. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Alot of wind as well .
     
  27. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like two systems to me.
    Decaying warm WA peaker.
    Brings warm winds. .rain from Thurs evening until Saturday Arvo.
    Then a developing low pushes up from sixty south.
     
  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    On trend.
    Trend says minimal rain with a hellava lotta wind to limp it over the alps.
     
  29. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    00Z GFS is the biggest dog's breakfast I've seen in a long time....
     
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  30. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A fair bit of peak and slide on EPS. I think it can do better.
     
  31. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC cant make up its mind either.
     
  32. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 00Z Low centre for 10 am 29th has moved a fair way North ( close to Albany), from last run.
     
  33. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    models are very messy atm IMO
     
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  34. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    00Z EC totals still have some flavour though.
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    There’s some big anoms between now and mid-next week. Won’t see things settle until the weekend. That bombing low through SW WA needs legs but EC looks positive IMO
     
  36. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    GFS gone off the Rails with this wandering cool pool stuff.

    I see 90 mm was reported at Perisher last week. Not 150 mm but that was only a reference number for maximums.

    I am going with EC but SAM must be going upwards, which kind of mean the classic winter may be over. But a few days of High pressures will do that to you.



    [​IMG]
     
  37. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes it is.
     
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  38. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Sams (AA0) are forecast on GFS to rebound and go slightly positive a bit next week ( 0.75 correlation)

    Time to hike up above 7000 ft for some wandering cool pool 1020 Hpa Highs.
    [​IMG]
     
  39. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    You just beat me to that. ;)

    I kind of need some time off. Looks good early September with that down ward trend in SAM. Hopefully SAM gets very negative.
     
  40. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    GFS trying to out do EC. This is a good alignment between EC and GFS

    [​IMG]
     
  41. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Got warm and rainy on this mornings run and now getting back into a better zone. Let’s see what tomorrow brings...
     
  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    More topsy turvy action if that's your jam. Needs a few days yet.

    But it's there.
     
  43. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us

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  44. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thursday hair dryer is looking brutal.
    Friday looks very interesting.
    Temps hovering relative to the wind direction.
    potential modelling for 2 feet this morning 00z charts.
    Not going to believe anything till this cut off clears out of the mix over the weekend.
    Normal programming resumed.
     
  45. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking very nice.....



    Note. GFS not in the same boat.
     
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  46. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS is rolling out another cut off and muther pineapple delivery tho worst of the precip modelled out west where it is needed most.
     
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  47. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Next week still looks as messy and undecided as the Liberals party room in Canberra.
     
  48. Tanuki

    Tanuki A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Anyone got a feel on the potential for rain mid week?
    Relatives are up at Hot-ham all week I thought it could be worth a mid week visit with my daughter Tuesday till Thursday. Might wait till mondMo to decide.
     
  49. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Hang on you mean next week or the week after?????

    Next week looks like a weak high pressure, so should be fairly stable and no rain
     
  50. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    GFS Looks the goods and Ec backed off.

    Incidentally are geo-potential heights seasonally re-calibrated in both models????

    Perhaps the calibrations occur at different times.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]