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Predictions 29th Aug - 2nd Sept - The 2018 Apex System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Aug 19, 2018.

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  1. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Not sure where to post this, but Sunday night into Monday has a nice really cold burst coming through imo?
    Could be some low level snow around southern vic and a little top up for southern resorts ❄️
     
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  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Disucussed in the 21st Onwards thread...
     
  3. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    EC downgrades, I'm starting to think the season is over :(
     
  4. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    How so ?
    What I see is snow on the ground , fairly deep in places as well , so that's game on as far as I can see. :thumbs::thumbs::thumbs:
     
  5. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I rode grass mud and a strip of gravel today!
    It's so over.
    PS. The handrail at smiggs ski patrol is buried. In a normal season that's 900mm off the snow
     
  6. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    :confused:
     
  7. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's far from over imo. It's just the standard end of August lul. It'll fire back up by the 1st to 2nd week of September.
     
  8. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Its the vibe.
    There's moar dumpings left yet.
    Season thinking about change but gut instinct theres another couple of rounds to go.
    All the indicators ( SAM / LWT) say so too.
    Seasons are running late past few years.
    Even this year in late June there was concern when it wasn't loading up, and we just needed patience.
    Has delivered. PLus.
    IMO.
     
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  9. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    EC totals have crept back up in latest run, favouring NSW resorts. Models still unsettled atm IMO. Wind vectors are somewhat laclustre atm.
     
  10. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    EC 850hPa temps-( 10am 1st Sept ) and 6 hour precip plots . Also some good K Index levels ( general indicator of unsettled/stormy conditions) for same period.
     
  11. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah it’s done. Let’s pack up and go home.

     
  12. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Looks fantastic!! Where is everyone? Or was that taken early in the morning?
     
  13. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nobody go skiing anymore....
     
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  14. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah was taken at about 8:45

    Not really that busy, the side of Sun Valley softened in the sun but most people skiing groomed Wood Run in that part of the world.

    /obs thread.

    After Sunday they don't. Idiots. Works for me though.
     
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  15. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sometimes the Dees making finals works in your favour...
     
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  16. Scoober

    Scoober One of Us

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    Progression on the models starting to look good for this period. Is it me or does the Tasman low look like not budging for a more prolonged period which is helping the next system to push more strongly into the trailing high west of Oz? @Jellybeans1000 @POW_hungry @Kletterer you guys would know more then me!!
     
  17. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Getting off topic but I skied with a Dees supporter this morning and she's very conflicted.
     
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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not a lot of good in that set-up as it stands IMO. The Tasman Low is a pest as it stalls everything west of it. As I’ve always said, not much good comes (for the SE) when a deep low peaks over SW WA, sure it’ll bring some SW’ly flow in the back end but it’s potentially looking messy below 1700m in the initial phase...
    I’ll have a better opinion on things tomorrow/Monday, I reckon.
     
  19. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    And this is what we see happening. Ideal gas laws working against us. In a nutshell SAM doesnt like hesitation.
     
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  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO this is now looking more like a 15-20cm system above 1800m, with maybe a 5-10cm gain below for the majors now.
    There will be rain.

    This said, it's quite a dynamic system for WA (again) on Tuesday. 540 extending right up into Shark Bay, some ~400kms from the Tropics....
     
  21. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sounds good really.....a bit of gentle rain through the pack to settle it right down and set it hard, a touch of fresh on top......and the monster spring corn harvest of 2018 can begin.... a nice n lovely dry spring with long still days and cold clear nights (sorry farmers and bushfire prone areas), thanks.
     
  22. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah as above, not very good. Rain during the early morning, 1700m FLs by mid morning, and cooling down into Saturday. Pretty terrible below 1700-1800m on Friday, love for the Southern resorts on Saturday.

    Friday 10am EC


    Saturday 10am
     
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  23. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Infinity and beyond!!! It ain't over as the fat lady isn't skiing yet...
     
  24. Zimbooo

    Zimbooo One of Us

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    Google translate says this in Japanese................日本のバンプスキーヤーの陰茎勃起
     
  25. derwent

    derwent One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Fair chance a dawn surf and arvo ski for south coasters on Wednesday.
     
  26. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    For Perisher.
     
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  27. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    EC 12Z precip and snowfall totals respectively.
     
  28. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    looks a bit lean (rainfall) on EC above.

    looks ok on gfs.

    [​IMG]
     
  29. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    gfs looks much juicer. big fetch

    the bottom of the resorts will survive this.

    Three or 4 solid snow bands will hit us in the period. Its a big system. Nice clearing high to follow too. HMMMMM

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  30. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    a 1034 Hpa High. WoW. Let the touring begin.

    [​IMG]
     
  31. Bogan Daddy

    Bogan Daddy Hard Yards

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    Bugger, that will 4 trips in 4 that I will be blown away.... still think there is alot of R to start this one which wont be helpful for where I am heading.
     
  32. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    4 Day chart shows the system on Thursday.

    [​IMG]
     
  33. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    All clear stuff before 10pm Friday IMO.
     
  34. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    At what altitude? I thought it looked like mostly snow above 1800m-ish at this stage?

    Edit - probably even lower actually.
     
  35. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snowtunes in trouble .
    Imo
     
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  36. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well Friday could either provide the little kick the base needs to go to the season peak (above 1600m odd) or bring enough rain to ensure the peak has passed and spring has sprung. Line ball but in NSW I'm going for snow down to at least 1700m possibly 1600m on the back of 500hpa temps of -24C odd and 850hpa heights close to 1300m on the back of sub 1000 hpa pressure.
     
  37. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Problem with this system.
    It's been so long since it was cold.
    Residual cold air will be minimal.
    Rain IMO and 100kmph winds plus until mid way through Saturday
     
  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    All the winter action is in SW WA on Tuesday, won't be much left in the tank for SE Aus.
    The back end WAS looking like the business end of things up until yesterday, but ridgey this morning and dying a slow death now IMO.
     
  39. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Wind Vectors can look sweet but when they are carrying warm air advection it spells trouble.
     
  40. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    The old 50mm turning to 2-5cm snow at the end system eh?
    Blame Canada.
     
  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still looking like 15-20cm for the Main Range and above 1800m. Not all is lost.
     
  42. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS EC & GFS all pretty much painting the same pics this am.
    couple degs into the postives, 850 hovering <1400 ish
    looking windy tho as per comments above
     
  43. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's almost as if winter 2018 really does end on Aug 31st.

    and the big flood of 2010 was the same dates as this coming weekend.
     
  44. kiter

    kiter One of Us

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    So I dont understand whats going on here . I can see that there is lots of prefrontal northerly winds with precipitation and 540 line well off to the south on fri and the crew here saying clear water event similar to 2010 with a bit of snow sat (which looking at the maps I would usually agree with )yet Janes auto predictor and yeah nah still saying snow above 1700m . I noticed that the cold air and 540 line lingers for a while till tues, does that swirl around into the prefrontal keeping things a bit cooler ? Is the cooler than normal water off NW WA not warming and moisturising this air like it would in a negative IOD ?
     
  45. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    My read on it is that reasonably low surface pressures over the alps and reasonable temps at resort level are 'competing' (for lack of a better term) with pretty ordinary thickness / upper temps. So probably snow above 1700-1800m but it is likely to be wet and mixed with periods of rain.
     
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  46. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Not really comparable. Sept 2010 was the mother of all pineapple expresses carrying stupid amounts of tropical moisture from the North-east into a Deep Low (we got 82mm in 24 hours!). And it was during a transition into a deep La-Nina. We're heading the other direction atm.
     
  47. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM 4 dater looks a bit better today. The current system should be feeding some cold air into central Aus so with a bit of luck, this will reduce pre frontal damage.

    Should turn to snow overnight Friday going by the 4 day IMO.

     
  48. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    yeah the 4-day numpty in me would look at that and go 1008 at 10am Friday with a westerley feed = snow at 1600m -1700m

    Anyway. ill probably be at Falls friday, ill let you know.
     
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  49. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Despite me wanting to say nothing, as i fear a downgrade (GFS has been jinxing me every time I post this week), I find I cant help it and have to post something overly overoptimistic. I guess I should just say rain. rain rain and rain. There.

    At least we have a LWT NODE sort of in place despite neutral to positive SAM. It was looking so good on GFS yesterday morning.

    DAM and the ECL progged for Tuesday / Wednesday looks intense (This week). Pitty SST are 12c. Brrrrrrrr.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  50. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    The definition of insanity.... doing the same thing over and over and over and expecting a different result...
     
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