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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Aug 19, 2018.
Nothing wrong with a numpty haha
Maybe a hope-casting numpty!
This is not a classic cut-off low though is it? So its has spun more times, washed in warm and so less cold, yeah?
EC 0Z snow versus all precip totals . Not a huge difference in amounts. Less snow but also less clear than previous runs. Could be a lot worse IMO.
Unless things move back towards what the models where suggesting yesterday(which looked special in the tail of the system) then this one(apart from up high) could just be another tassey special. IMO
But I think there is still a lot of movement to be had with this system. The purple line is lurking ominously around close to tassey imo
Its currently a 3 headed beast as it nears WA. The South low on the below is packing the cold air. The northern 2 are warming and building moisture. IF it times itself right and the southern low combines with the other 2 as they near the SA / VIC Border then the cold air injection should turn it to snow by 10pm Friday. Lots of variables but it's a chance.
Positively, there does look like something salvageable (on GFS) early on Friday AM.
EC looks better today, temps-wise - reason being EC progs the deeper, polar low to remain further South (after passing WA) on Thursday. We may be lucky yet.
Friday at 10am has MSLP of 1002 over the Alps. I'm skiing Wednesday next week..
850hPa 4am Sat. temp advection plot basicly shows the 2 bits of goodness, with mildly warmer conditions between ( not always a bad thing if temps have already got a foot in the door). Earlier plots are a bit uglier so i wont post them.
By Saturday AM, the moisture-show is over IMO. Few cms maybe, with 0.1-0.5mm fall rates there hovering through Western Bass below...
Yeah the humdiity/ available moisture plots show a laclustre picture atm.
4-5 grams vapour to the Kilo Mixing Ratio until about 4pm on GFS.
The last system wet SA, WA, Southern QLD and Eastern NSW.. Moisture delays heat and adds convection.
This front is the last of the August series. Underestimate at your peril.... IMO
GFS has a cloud burst at 4/7pm friday
at warm temps
I'm not feeling this
This is what will make snow tunes interesting.
I'm thinking 20mm then 10cm above 1700m from the charts.
EC looks to kick on with this +/- right thru Saturday.
Temps hovering to favour above 1500 maybe 1600 or so , precip is there right thru.
AXS holding similiar for now too .
Mind you I was lead astray over the weekend just past by my similiar read here so my confidence is not high.
p.s. why quoting GFS now with more confidence over EC and AXS which have been more reliable?
Building the stages in that wind will be interesting.
I've been to a few parties cancelled by wind.
One where a stage awning blew 100 feet into the air
Not a party weekend. This thing is a BEAST
It’s worthy of a reference when it echos EC or if it’s correcting a previous misalignment IMO, reliability of GFS comes with trend not bullishness. That’s how I see it.
So middle to late Sept should be okay on the AAO front. Maybe another burst of fronts in a week or two?
Jane (automated) suggesting about 10mm rain followed by 20cm (for Hotham mid station 1650m).
With those sorts a winds it's not surprising.
Predicted temps in the Jagungal look a bit warm on Thursday and Friday , -5 to -1 on Thursday and -6 to 0 on Friday before cooling on Saturday -9 to -5 before continuing in that vein early next week. So I would say probably most likely anything falling on Thursday and Friday would be of a non solid variety before turning late Friday early Saturday into a more solid form. Question is how much non solid falls before the solid.
Just as an aside tonight its getting down to -13 with a top of -6 tomorrow so you can see the temps later this week show a temporary warming.
20mm then 10cm or 10mm then 20cm either way is reasonable imo. Its not 60mm followed by 1cm!
Yeah I was thinking the same thing, but still holding out for one last top up followed by a solid 1030 Hpa High.
I dunno. I guess I take a less deterministic approach.
However, the disappointment of missing out after GFS has been telling me all week that its on (snow or surf) probably makes me more mental (insane) than posting a Lofty GFS chart on this forum.
The node LWT is clearly there, its just how it pans out, and as our mountains are 37 degrees south you have to be a bit overly optimistic, otherwise you never ride.
not worried - rain wont do much damage after a few days of heavy freezes and no thaw. this system will pan out fine whatever we get.
The only rain we need to worry about is in the triple digits mm
BOM 4 day looks promising.
A season without tipple digits washouts. Now that would be hopeful.
EC 0Z totals equate to an improvement ( biased towards NSW) from yesterday IMO.
Hope this system dosent hurt Baw Baw to much, but it looks like it’s only going to produce snow for the higher resorts imo
Any chance of it bouncing back to the way the tail end looked a few days back? Or will it continue to be mown down by the high coming in behind?
GFS midday friday 850hPa temps are looking a little more promising. A one or two/ perhaps three degree rise in the arvo but nothing drastic . Its borderline but mid mountain is not a bad target for that period this time of year IMO.
Looking at some Vorticity plots- showing a little more low level ( particularly 850hPa level) helicity over the Alps than expected.
Just landed in Perth, 12c and persistent rain. Very wintery.
Things will kick off with snow lowering to 1800m daybreak Friday AM IMO.
Jane mentions snow down to 1600m by the arvo. That's where I am gonna disagree; as far as NSW resorts go. Whilst I think there's a good chance of snow down to 1600m at times, the FLs are above 2k so falls below this are only supported by the mediocre uppers and some heavy fall rates.
I am of the opinion there will be accumulations above 1700/1800m for Friday, with a negligible gain below IMO.
15-20cm above 1800m, I reckon.
Saturday is another story; colder. But there's gonna be bugger-all moisture in that polar feed. 2-3cm Saturday IMO.
EC Temp Profile for Thredbo , Friday 4pm:
I was thinking much the same, perhaps 100 metres lower after midday accumulatively . Skew Ts however are pretty much saying exactly what you are saying atm. no flies on you.
Winds Friday Arvo aren't exactly lighting my fire either... Unless you're in the CT's.
What time Thursday do you reckon precip will kick off (Perisher) and assuming will be rain all the way up to begin?
There's mid-level showery shit pushing through the Main Range/Perisher around mid-eve Thursday night, but there's nothing to suggest it'll be heavy, more showery (but yep, rain not snow).
Kicks off proper around 6/7am Friday IMO.
Not much before 7am Friday.
850's have been gradually improving across the models .
will help at the 1600- 1700 altitude.
not by much but couple degress over past 2 or 3 days.
have been sweating on them
Thanks gents, sounds like Thursday will be ok other then a pesky increasing wind.
Freeze levels /snowfall levels wil fluctuate in this system. Wintery mix affair aint bad for late August IMO. Just remember that earlier on we were looking at a big pineapple potential. There is vibe in this one still IMO.
You won't even notice that wind until you're sipping brandys fire-side in your lodge Thursday night... It's fair to say, it'll rattle those eaves all night long.
BOM upgrade up to 35 for P and up high its nice
That skew T is pretty different to the yr.no temps and janesweather meteogram (not sure if it's into the OCF period yet). They are showing freeze levels closer to 1600m and don't have as much of a warm period on Friday arvo. Did they come from different model runs or something?
Edited -1600m / added some words
Actually, just to clarify and keep everyone's expectations in check, that's forecasted as; 50% chance of 20mm & 25% chance of up to 35mm.
What's wind going to be like Sat/Sun? Getting better as time passes? I've been burnt a few times by it this season.
What winds speeds are you forecasting across this system Thursday to Saturday? I'm especially interesting in NSW Island Bend and Sawpit
I'm seeing 20-40 up to 50km/hr on the BOM with strongest stuff hitting late morning Friday and early morning Saturday. Would that be about right?
Yep, that's pretty close to what I am seeing. Could be quite gusty through the middle of the day Friday IMO.
Saturday's winds really lay off by the arvo (15-20knots)