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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Aug 19, 2018.
And 25% chance of 35mm+?
Yeah, 25% chance of at least that amount.
The skew-t I put up is from the 00z run.
I'll take skew-t profiles over a meteogram temp any day, in reference to FL. The dimension is just not there to suggest any sort of FL in a meteogram.
Do you mean that the dimension isn't there to suggest snow level? It should definitely be able to suggest a freeze level.
Could also be some thundersleet in this one imo.
You can try, but it's a rough guess by comparison to a Skew-T.
Tomorrow morning the meteogram says -10C for Perisher (1719m), where do you 'definitely suggest' the FL is? Thanks to the inversion, models suggest ~1200m
I am not calling you out, I am just making the point it's an inferior and vague source in determining a FL.
Here's Friday's FL (EC) Friday arvo:
All good - obviously a meteogram doesn't have the detail of a skew-t but with temps for base, mid and top of a resort you can get a rough idea of where the level will be. Not enough to produce a detailed forecast, but (in conjunction with some free charts) enough info to decide that Friday will probably only be a 'pow day' for the very optimistic so I'll save the day off for some spring corn.
tl;dr version - agree with your comment that it's a 'rough guess' unless there's only one freeze level and it happens to be at the exact altitude of the meteogram.
BOM this morning are predicting a maximum of 3 degrees at Perisher on Friday with snow falling above 1500m. Dare we hope?
Everything above mid station will be ok at perisher
Purely thickness based. It's 544 pretty consistently over the Alps.
Particularly when the cloud burst occurs.
Far out it looks windy though.
Is Buller going to cop rain only from this one?
Yep. No doubt about it.
Except from maybe a few cms of snowfall on Saturday.
Not much hope on Friday for LMtn & ic snalls then? Partial repair Sat? If lucky?
Sorry re spelling - bloody small Ip keys on a train!
That far low will probably see all rain. Not much snow at all, if at all.
NOt much to report
EC 12Z has more clear precip again.
wintry mix from 1600m Friday morning and improving as the day goes on.
I've rolled the dice.
cu in the treez.
This system reminds me of when @POW_hungry Camped in chalet de caravan.
It was very wet wild and windy.
I don't see much goodness until the sun sets
Sunset Thurs or Fridy?
what was that old song from the 70's ……………..are you cold enough , are you cold enough ooo ooo. Not till Saturday I think.
EC, AXS and GFS all modelling +/- 2 degs 850at 1380m
EC 500's not soo good but AXS and GFS low to mid -20's
Thredbo / MR skew T upgrade & supportive ( ? )
canned my trip this weekend, so watch it for some unknown stupid reason snow a shit load.
Its been on of those seasons for me where the fresh stuff has avoided me
Freeze level going to be higher than suggested here?
That soothing sound of pitter-pattering rain on refrigeration panels!
It's a unique sound. ...so comforting
GFS 800hPa Temps 4am Sat.
Not EPS? Don't tell your insurer.
BoM - DaBo
BoM - Perisher
BoM - Hotham
BoM - Buller
3 out of 4 aren't bad
When ever I see "very windy "
I predict Dad's Uber Taxi service may be unavailable again on Sunday due to the predicted weather conditions.
Borederline temps tomoz are borderline.
Hopecasting at it's finest example here.
Going to be fun one way or another.
I predict there will be no lift lines.
Based on Perisher upper slopes.
Frog forgot to add the zero's
Hi All, managed to get a trip this weekend to Falls at a budget rate, should I be there for Sat Morning or Sunday morning? I am doing Monday morning as well before having to drop my cousin off at the Airport Mon night.
I am thinking if it does fall as white stuff, Sat would have more freshies, but if it will be extremely windy not all that much fresh, I will wait until Sunday morning.
thoughts ? sorry need help predicting the best time to get there
So much northerly wind in this one until late Friday afternoon - assume that means orographic effects won't be present for NSW as the surface winds will have blown along the plateau.
BoM 4 Dayer
He's actually been conservative this season IMO. Way too conservative.
Normally seeing this would leave me thinking 50-100cm, not this time!
Falls and Hotham - will do OK
Perisher and Thredbo - meh
Buller - Could be an black comedy
Just get there as early as you can and stay as long as possible.
Looking more like a Perisher speshie above mid-mountain IMO.
Sprinkles of instability for the arvo...
Just because you want it to be a disaster at Buller doesn't necessarily mean it will be.