Predictions 29th Aug - 2nd Sept - The 2018 Apex System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Aug 19, 2018.

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  1. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    And 25% chance of 35mm+?
     
  2. waza

    waza Hard Yards

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    Ok thanks
     
  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, 25% chance of at least that amount.
    The skew-t I put up is from the 00z run.
    I'll take skew-t profiles over a meteogram temp any day, in reference to FL. The dimension is just not there to suggest any sort of FL in a meteogram.
     
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  4. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Abating yes.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  5. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Do you mean that the dimension isn't there to suggest snow level? It should definitely be able to suggest a freeze level.
     
  6. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Could also be some thundersleet in this one imo.
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    You can try, but it's a rough guess by comparison to a Skew-T.
    Tomorrow morning the meteogram says -10C for Perisher (1719m), where do you 'definitely suggest' the FL is? Thanks to the inversion, models suggest ~1200m

    I am not calling you out, I am just making the point it's an inferior and vague source in determining a FL.
    Here's Friday's FL (EC) Friday arvo:
     
  8. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    All good - obviously a meteogram doesn't have the detail of a skew-t but with temps for base, mid and top of a resort you can get a rough idea of where the level will be. Not enough to produce a detailed forecast, but (in conjunction with some free charts) enough info to decide that Friday will probably only be a 'pow day' for the very optimistic so I'll save the day off for some spring corn.

    tl;dr version - agree with your comment that it's a 'rough guess' unless there's only one freeze level and it happens to be at the exact altitude of the meteogram.
     
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  9. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM this morning are predicting a maximum of 3 degrees at Perisher on Friday with snow falling above 1500m. Dare we hope?
     
  10. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Everything above mid station will be ok at perisher
     
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  11. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Purely thickness based. It's 544 pretty consistently over the Alps.
    Particularly when the cloud burst occurs.
    Far out it looks windy though.

    #tiedownyourDJ
     
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  12. dmz

    dmz More cheeeese Gromit Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is Buller going to cop rain only from this one?
     
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep. No doubt about it.
     
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  14. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Except from maybe a few cms of snowfall on Saturday.
     
  15. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

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    Not much hope on Friday for LMtn & ic snalls then? Partial repair Sat? If lucky?
     
  16. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

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    Sorry re spelling - bloody small Ip keys on a train!
     
  17. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    That far low will probably see all rain. Not much snow at all, if at all.
     
  18. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    NOt much to report

    [​IMG]
     
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  19. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 12Z has more clear precip again.
     
  20. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    wintry mix from 1600m Friday morning and improving as the day goes on.
    IMO.
    I've rolled the dice.
    cu in the treez. :)
     
  21. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    This system reminds me of when @POW_hungry Camped in chalet de caravan.
    It was very wet wild and windy.
    I don't see much goodness until the sun sets
     
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  22. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sunset Thurs or Fridy?
     
  23. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us

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    what was that old song from the 70's ……………..are you cold enough , are you cold enough ooo ooo. Not till Saturday I think.
     
  24. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Friday 6pm
     
  25. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC, AXS and GFS all modelling +/- 2 degs 850at 1380m
    10am Friday.
    EC 500's not soo good but AXS and GFS low to mid -20's
    Thredbo / MR skew T upgrade & supportive ( ? )
    [​IMG]
     
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  26. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    canned my trip this weekend, so watch it for some unknown stupid reason snow a shit load.
    Its been on of those seasons for me where the fresh stuff has avoided me
     
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  27. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    [​IMG]

    Freeze level going to be higher than suggested here?
     
  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    That soothing sound of pitter-pattering rain on refrigeration panels!
     
  29. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's a unique sound. ...so comforting
     
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  30. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  31. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 800hPa Temps 4am Sat.
     
  32. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not EPS? Don't tell your insurer.
     
  33. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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  34. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM - Perisher

     
  35. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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  36. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM - Buller

    3 out of 4 aren't bad ;)

     
  37. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    When ever I see "very windy "

    I think.

    #tiedownyourDJ
     
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  38. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    I predict Dad's Uber Taxi service may be unavailable again on Sunday due to the predicted weather conditions.
     
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  39. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Borederline temps tomoz are borderline.
    Hopecasting at it's finest example here.
    Going to be fun one way or another.
    I predict there will be no lift lines.


     
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  40. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Based on Perisher upper slopes.
     
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  41. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Frog forgot to add the zero's
     
  42. Juicebiglow

    Juicebiglow Addicted

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    Hi All, managed to get a trip this weekend to Falls at a budget rate, should I be there for Sat Morning or Sunday morning? I am doing Monday morning as well before having to drop my cousin off at the Airport Mon night.
    I am thinking if it does fall as white stuff, Sat would have more freshies, but if it will be extremely windy not all that much fresh, I will wait until Sunday morning.
    thoughts ? sorry need help predicting the best time to get there
     
  43. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    So much northerly wind in this one until late Friday afternoon - assume that means orographic effects won't be present for NSW as the surface winds will have blown along the plateau.
     
  44. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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  45. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    He's actually been conservative this season IMO. Way too conservative.
     
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  46. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    Normally seeing this would leave me thinking 50-100cm, not this time!
     
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  47. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Falls and Hotham - will do OK
    Perisher and Thredbo - meh
    Buller - Could be an black comedy

    IMO
     
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  48. iagreewithhim

    iagreewithhim One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    A very long way from the snow
    Just get there as early as you can and stay as long as possible.
     
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  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking more like a Perisher speshie above mid-mountain IMO.
    Sprinkles of instability for the arvo...
     
  50. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just because you want it to be a disaster at Buller doesn't necessarily mean it will be.