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2nd - 11th August Predictions

Discussion in 'Weather' started by loweee, Jul 21, 2011.

  1. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Extended GFS has a sniff and Access shows a monster Low.....
     
  2. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions

    hahahah the curse of the date range.
     
  3. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions

    At +168 hours the location of this low differs by over 1000 km between the ACCESS and EC model. GFS is more in line with EC.

    The EC deterministic and ensemble runs from this point both show it slipping south. The dominant feature in both forecasts at the moment is a strong high pressure ridge across the continent.
     
  4. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions

    just coming into range...very interested in this
    [​IMG]
     
    #4 Donza, Jul 22, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  5. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions

    There is now good agreement between ACCESS and EC for this system at +168 hours.

    I wouldn't get too excited just yet...EC ensemble is very non-committal.
     
  6. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions

    [​IMG]

    will update. agrees with above as well.
    Not amazingly impressive. but more consistent plots than before.
     
    #6 Donza, Jul 22, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  7. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions

    [​IMG]

    hmmmm !!!
     
    #7 Donza, Jul 22, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  8. boorsy

    boorsy Hard Yards

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions

    What do you think Donza ? Not cold enough
     
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions

    IMO, not impossible.

    [​IMG]

    Would like a little more cold fetch though.
     
    #9 Claude Cat, Jul 22, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  10. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions

    Not a very strong high belt of preassure forecast at this stage so anything is possible.

    IMO
     
  11. h2oskier

    h2oskier One of Us

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions

    looking a little... westerly..

    <buller crew cracks the sheits>
     
  12. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions

    NSW system

    not buller
    at this stage

    But I reckon the cold fetch will come..EC keeps backing away from a ridging high.... as does AXS. In fact it seems to plant a high kinda like early july this season
     
    #12 Donza, Jul 22, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  13. Mils

    Mils One of Us

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions

    /like!
     
    #13 Mils, Jul 22, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  14. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions

    updated..for next 24 hours

    thats some tight there
     
    #14 Donza, Jul 22, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  15. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions

    Havn't looked much at the charts for the last week, but at first glance this morning, this is looking very impressive.
     
  16. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions

    I agree, I think something good looks to be brewing. Something real good.
     
  17. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions

    I agree too smitty, just a little worried about prefrontal. Latest EC run doesn't look good until Monday 1st but still a good week out for it to come together......
     
  18. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions

    I'm really liking the spag plot
     
  19. boorsy

    boorsy Hard Yards

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions

    I'm up at Buller from the 31st for a week so I can give updates, it is looking pretty good but I hope it's not to windy I will be annoyed if the lifts go on hold.
     
  20. boorsy

    boorsy Hard Yards

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions

    Updated GFS looks good for sunday 31st with good moisture in the bight and a nice southwest fetch, shows it arriving on monday 1st, with a little bit of pre frontal, then it appears to be sliding south on tuesday with a largish high pressure system forming over the main land. IMO this large High pressure system wont form, not that big anyway and the front will go through monday into tuesday although it might be a little westerly at first.

    EC looks pretty good actually upgraded moisture and a good SW fetch and pressure of 996, will be intersting
    IMO
     
  21. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions

    Right, well this is looking like a potential Monster IMO.

    But quite a while out so I don't want to excite myself too early.
     
  22. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions

    did i mentions smitty, kaos and donza will be there for 4 days?
     
  23. BH

    BH One of Us

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions

    Looks like that whole 1st week of August could be quite snowy. I would think there would be a fair amount of prefontal though- Looks a little on the warmish side for the 31st/1st...of course this is all just my humble opinion....
     
  24. boorsy

    boorsy Hard Yards

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions

    What day do use get up there Donza ?
    Do you think it will hit on the monday ?
     
  25. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions

    And Verms [​IMG]
     
    #25 Vermillion, Jul 24, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  26. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions

    Stay on topic.

    I like the lack of dominating high around this time. LWT looks good. I agree BH, its the type of set up that would see a week of snow....just like the last big system at the start of the month IMO.
     
  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions

    Stay on topic
     
  28. boorsy

    boorsy Hard Yards

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions

    Looks like it will be pretty westerly atleast at first so Buller will probably get a bit of r**n, i hope its not to windy, if the lifts are on hold i will be shattered
     
  29. boorsy

    boorsy Hard Yards

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    #29 boorsy, Jul 24, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  30. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions

    Fronts at the end of date range look better on all models I reckon.
    First few look too warm on these runs.
     
  31. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions

    I think its probably too early to get into specifics like this. Still quite a bit of divergence between models regarding high placements.
     
    #31 Stratus, Jul 24, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  32. boorsy

    boorsy Hard Yards

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions

    I agree there is still some divergence, and alot of time to go a fat high may form but ATM looking unlikely
    IMO
     
    #32 boorsy, Jul 24, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  33. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions

    WZ are liking it and showing 5-10cm each day from Sun to Thurs. Looking promising for these dates.
     
  34. Hans

    Hans Hard Yards

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions

    boorsy will you be continuing your predilections for Buller post trip?

    Or will you just stop,to return next year around similar dates.?
     
  35. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions

    just keeping it rolling, one bubble over se australia and another SW of wa
    this date range should be 1st august to 9th august IMO
     
    #35 Donza, Jul 24, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  36. boorsy

    boorsy Hard Yards

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions

    Hans, Ill definetly be continuing post trip, this is just my main trip of the season for a week. i have already been up a couple of times for day trips but i have a bit of time off in August so i will be up then probably once a week.
     
    #36 boorsy, Jul 24, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions

    Stay on topic.
     
  38. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions

    EC latest run looks tasty and IMO agree with Donz this date range is looking good for a week or more.......

    [​IMG]
     
    #38 FourSquare04, Jul 25, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions

    IMO the date range for this thread is a bit out. It appears to me that the action starts around the 3rd (looking at EC and GFS).
     
  40. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions

    Agreed.
    concur
     
    #40 Donza, Jul 25, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  41. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions (or 03rd august to 11th august)

    [​IMG]

    spag bol (plot) looks very impressive...
     
    #41 Donza, Jul 25, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions

    If there is general agreement I will change the date range for this thread to 2nd August to 9th August?
     
  43. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions (or 03rd august to 11th august)

    That looks so amplified at the perfect spot...

    of course its 312 hours...

    but
     
  44. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    aye
     
    #44 Donza, Jul 25, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  45. boorsy

    boorsy Hard Yards

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    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    That spag plot looks very nice indeed, yeah looks like a bit of rain 1st/2nd then the action starts on the 3rd we could see 1m + over this date range depending on temps IMO
     
  46. boorsy

    boorsy Hard Yards

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    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions


    http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=GFS&domain=TA

    Looks good for snow from maybe late tuesday evening or wednesday morning onwards after a bit of pre frontal though if it arrives overnight on the tuesday temps might be low enough anyway for snow with minimal to no pre frontal. then again we may get r**n on monday and tuesday before it becomes cold enough.
    IMO
     
    #46 boorsy, Jul 25, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  47. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    EC latest update looks interesting....now going for a solid cut off scenario.......IMO this has BIG potential if all the right elements come together at the right time:

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #47 FourSquare04, Jul 25, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  48. Double J

    Double J First Runs

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions

    sorry cc i am going to have to spoil your party on this one chief

    imo it all lines up in this case for the dates mentioned,

    i think it looks as though we are heading for a big system cross the bight arriving NE VIC 31st at 2pm and placing; 31st 23cm/ 1st 30cm/ 2nd 51cm / 3rd 27cm / 4th bright and sunny but still cold.

    How does that grab ya son?

    cheers
     
    #48 Double J, Jul 25, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: 31 July - 03 August Predictions

    Let's wait a couple of days, I cant see anything good on the 31st on my favorite models, IMO. Perhaps a bit of rain.
     
  50. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    #50 filski, Jul 25, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013