1. There's more to this forum than meets the eye!

    We have a vibrant community here conversing about all sorts of non-snow topics such as music, sport, politics and technology. Simply register to reveal all our Apr├Ęs topics or continue browsing and reading as a guest.

    NOTE: This notice may be closed.

    Dismiss Notice

2nd - 11th August Predictions

Discussion in 'Weather' started by loweee, Jul 21, 2011.

  1. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,608
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    i'll double that..and add some more

    I reckon 25cm at perisher noon sat- to noon sunday.
     
  2. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,608
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    [​IMG]


    500hpa chart

    uppers linger
     
    #552 Donza, Aug 5, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  3. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2000
    Messages:
    4,141
    Likes Received:
    142
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    Ever so, so slight drop in barometer over Melbourne (which I am using as the tail-end indicator of the H cell off the coast...FFS move!) which would help passage of the L from the Bight.

    Interestingly, there's another L system marching up from the SW of the continent which IMO would make for a VERY intriguing scenario if there's a continued stalling of all systems - I believe the newer system has the balls to push the H out of the way and with the current cold pool near Adelaide, would act as a precursor for a bigger system.

    Ahhh, dreams are free....
     
  4. Squidly

    Squidly One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2004
    Messages:
    1,963
    Likes Received:
    42
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    Your right there woggybot, people have not been looking much beyond this w/e, next weeks system could build and be the one that delivers.
     
  5. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    70,312
    Likes Received:
    24,321
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    Hard to look that far into the future when the next 48 hours are so difficult to predict.
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    110,287
    Likes Received:
    47,071
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    Agree with that. I'm treating next week as completely separate to this weekends events and it's pretty hard to get a handle on what's happing in 48 hours let alone in a 100 hours.
     
  7. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2009
    Messages:
    2,505
    Likes Received:
    1,417
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    A view reflected by several NSW BOM forecasters on the radio in the last 2 days :)
     
  8. pansnow

    pansnow First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2008
    Messages:
    138
    Likes Received:
    0
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    I reckon Sunday/Monday morning something big will come once the low goes across to the east it opens the door for a southerly blast.
    The current low will soften up the high. What model do i use its called using past knowlege of watching weather systems over the yesrs.
     
  9. Mothy_Peak

    Mothy_Peak First Runs

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2011
    Messages:
    81
    Likes Received:
    0
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    Honestly, your typical SW Frontal system are always moving way to quickly anyway for some seriously good dump-age.

    I mean they delivery some awesome 20 to 40cm wind blown days with blue conditions the next day but nevertheless don't do much for forming a base unless there is at least 2 or 3 embedded cold fronts. On the highest peaks in OZ your always have to look for the wind blown with some ice chutes to look out fall.

    Hence, we have struggled in the last 10 years for a good snow base on all aspects.

    If cold pool of air hangs in there, this system could be way more productive, in terms of snow base and attracting these new lows that are lining up.

    I guess anything under 250cm this season will seem like a let down.



    IMO

     
  10. GazStreats

    GazStreats Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2011
    Messages:
    118
    Likes Received:
    15
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    I agree. This system looks like it could stick around for some time. This has the potential to provide snowfalls for a few days next week. If that high off the east coast Australia weakens we'll see cold temps for most of next week, and that low will sit over the alpine areas for a good few days, IMO.

    As the high pushes up through the Tasman, i think we'll see cold winds, especially with the 500hpa starting look good. All in all, IMO we'll see good snow at all the resorts over the 4-5 days after Saturday. Let's just hope that high weakens enough for the cold front to pass through. IMO
     
  11. Mothy_Peak

    Mothy_Peak First Runs

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2011
    Messages:
    81
    Likes Received:
    0
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    Yeah, yeah. The NEW BOM charts also seem to suggest this now. http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml

    I have worked out that a Synoptic chart beyond 72hrs are not that reliable if you don't have a typical system. I always new this but this event eventually has made me obey, and not get carried away.

    No work next week from the look of these charts.


    IMO
     
    #561 Mothy_Peak, Aug 5, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  12. Mothy_Peak

    Mothy_Peak First Runs

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2011
    Messages:
    81
    Likes Received:
    0
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    It s hard not to get carried away, BUT.

    Le BOM 2PM chars suggesting that its going off.

    The foretasted ECL on the 180hr synoptic is not really an ECL its a BSCOL (Bass Straight Cutoff Low). Water temps in Bass Straight are the coldest around for a country Mile.

    So yeah its looking good


    IMO
     
  13. Double J

    Double J First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2007
    Messages:
    13
    Likes Received:
    0
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    ok listen up ams.

    I'm calling it here, now,

    going on maps received from a secret sauce at bom (shhhh) the 540 line is going to snap ((maybe)) and this will bring untoward pressure from the west along with a massive moisture feed from the clouds OK

    sat; pm rain late tending to snow showers on the peaks 55cm
    sun; snow down to 100m 80cm
    mon; snow showers about ranges 15cm
    tue; 540 line repairs like a remedial rain only below 800m
    wed; sunny 18deg in the mountains don't forget your zinc and chap sticks

    IMOO

    any ideas fellas??

    cheers
     
  14. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2006
    Messages:
    21,941
    Likes Received:
    1,233
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    100m snow line followed by 18C temps.

    mod note - keep it clean.

    Seems excessively optimistic. (mod interpretation)
     
  15. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    46,488
    Likes Received:
    15,393
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    Its an alias.
     
  16. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    62,946
    Likes Received:
    9,778
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    What is an alias?
     
    #566 Sandy, Aug 5, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  17. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2006
    Messages:
    21,941
    Likes Received:
    1,233
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    Double J. What they are predicting is illogical.
     
  18. shrimp

    shrimp Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2002
    Messages:
    210
    Likes Received:
    1
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    - deleted off topic.
    - Matters of moderation of this forum can be taken up with the administrators.
     
  19. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 12, 2007
    Messages:
    24,600
    Likes Received:
    26,180
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    [​IMG]

    IMO.

    Sunday starting to look the bomb IMO, in NSW anyway.
     
    #569 telecrag, Aug 5, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  20. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 22, 2000
    Messages:
    3,207
    Likes Received:
    94
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    Ben could get a big snow dump out of this for the next 3 days and we need it. as long as the south easterly is cold enough which the Bom are forcasting above 1000m .. Fingers crossed
     
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    110,287
    Likes Received:
    47,071
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    3pm GFS has downgraded moisture for the weekend, IMO
    This is through to Tuesday, midday.
    [​IMG]
     
    #571 Claude Cat, Aug 5, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  22. Mothy_Peak

    Mothy_Peak First Runs

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2011
    Messages:
    81
    Likes Received:
    0
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    Yeah. Its hard see the clearing day, not until next weekend.
     
  23. Double J

    Double J First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2007
    Messages:
    13
    Likes Received:
    0
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    yeah well we will see on this one, i guess we will have to wait for a few days for the violins to sound smith,

    i have actually change my mind a little from the latest up date, but i will reserve my variations and keep on keeping on, only to now add that ((( my earlier predictions will now be called minimum depths. )))

    as for an alias, give me a brake lads i am who i am, who else could i be? frog? falls? mitch?

    give a new cellar a chance

    cheers boys
     
  24. Prokasaurus

    Prokasaurus Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Aug 30, 2010
    Messages:
    195
    Likes Received:
    1
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    Ben lomond always seems to do extremely well off a south easterly, with freezing levels far below the mainland in these winds, which dosent always happen in other types of systems!! Ive always found this peculiar

    As such I predict a nice dump for the ben from this system!! =D
     
  25. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2006
    Messages:
    21,941
    Likes Received:
    1,233
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    Double J, when have you ever seen 80cm fall to 100m asl? No offence, but It's fantasy land stuff... Also 18C? Didn't get anywhere near that hot this week with a long NW fetch.
     
  26. h2oskier

    h2oskier One of Us

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2008
    Messages:
    2,564
    Likes Received:
    25
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    is smitty playing with his own alias?
     
  27. Prokasaurus

    Prokasaurus Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Aug 30, 2010
    Messages:
    195
    Likes Received:
    1
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    hehe 80cm down to 100m asl heh mabye 18,000 years ago during the last ice age (which would have been 220m asl back then) possibly on the west coast of what is now tassie, only place I can think of down so low that would get enough precip (possibly) in a single dump for 80cm in such cold dry times!?

    Hypothysis', as interesting as they are, aside, I predict far less than 80cm in the alps from this system, sorry doublejay, im just not getting the same vibe as you are ;D
     
  28. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2011
    Messages:
    509
    Likes Received:
    1
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    Think this one is a prime example of the wait and see system. Way too many variables so cross the fingers and hope for the best.

    SST have given me another positive to add to the 500 temps so worse comes to worst, if this one does not deliver, at least the SST are looking sweet for the next week or two IMO
     
  29. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 1999
    Messages:
    36,866
    Likes Received:
    165
    #579 skiflat, Aug 5, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  30. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2009
    Messages:
    16,693
    Likes Received:
    10,536
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    Marine report saying winds to stay NW till late Sunday. Im predicting alot of rain to fall before the snow comes. Lets hope the moisture holds up along as they predict. I still think think it will be a net loss. And NSW already down to 135cms.
     
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    110,287
    Likes Received:
    47,071
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    yr.no and EC doesn't like it either IMO.
     
  32. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 1999
    Messages:
    36,866
    Likes Received:
    165
    #582 skiflat, Aug 5, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    110,287
    Likes Received:
    47,071
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    Weatherchaser isn't too bad, IMO
    Based on 3pm GFS


    7 day Forecast for Mt Hotham & Falls Creek.
    Day Precipitation Temperatures Freeze Level Winds
    Fri 05/08/2011 16mm rain Min 1, Max 4 2100m Strong to Light, NW
    Sat 06/08/2011 4cm Snow Min -2, Max 1 1600m Light to Moderate, NW
    Sun 07/08/2011 7cm Snow Min -2, Max -1 1600m Light to Calm, NW/N/S
    Mon 08/08/2011 4cm Snow Min -2, Max -1 1650m Light to Moderate, S/SW/W
    Tue 09/08/2011 6cm Snow Min -2, Max -1 1450m Moderate to Light to Fresh, W
    Wed 10/08/2011 10cm Snow Min -2, Max -1 1450m Strong to Light, W/SW/S
    Thu 11/08/2011 Dusting Min -1, Max 1 1550m Moderate to Fresh to Light, S
     
  34. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 1999
    Messages:
    36,866
    Likes Received:
    165
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    Looks about right IMO

    1600 metre freeze level is not good for Buller [​IMG]
     
    #584 skiflat, Aug 5, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  35. loweee

    loweee One of Us

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2002
    Messages:
    2,835
    Likes Received:
    640
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    The timing of this band for NSW looks to be working OK. Temps now down to about 3c at 1800m with it hitting at around 2am we should see it drop more then again when it hits. IMO

    May do OK in NSW with 15-20cm above 1600m through to sunday after maybe 10mm of prefrontal IMO
     
  36. GazStreats

    GazStreats Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2011
    Messages:
    118
    Likes Received:
    15
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    Can't sleep. Falls down to 0.0c, looking good. FREEZE. Sat/Sun look great.
     
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    110,287
    Likes Received:
    47,071
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    GFS looking more promising for midweek, IMO. EC also has the moisture there but temps could be a problem.
     
  38. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2000
    Messages:
    4,141
    Likes Received:
    142
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    Three bad situations

    1. the H off the coast won't move.
    2. the L cell near Adelaide ain't moving either!
    3. NW moisture feed.

    Overall, this REALLY sucks. I can see the L cell breaking down, there will be a big downgrade of cold air over the Alps and we'll end up with a reduced, wet snow pack. IMO.

    Let's move on, this warm weather has been a real curse. :angry as hell:
     
  39. TJ

    TJ One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2000
    Messages:
    3,497
    Likes Received:
    504
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    It's not good when the freezing level is so high. Touch and go for snow and what ever comes will be wet. Next week looks like an interesting pattern. Lots of chance for surprises either way.
     
  40. RDB74

    RDB74 First Runs

    Joined:
    May 3, 2011
    Messages:
    27
    Likes Received:
    0
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    Apart from Sunday & Monday, it looks rubbish IMO. Cold uppers and mid-layers quickly evaporate after Monday, and I just cannot see any surprises with that High south of Tassie. Perhaps a short burst of snow this time next week.

    GFS is the most optimistic, AXS looks dreadful.
     
  41. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,093
    Likes Received:
    278
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    As the trough moves to the East today, Falls Creek may get a lot of snow from it with the NW'ly, even with marginal temps.

    The high south of Tassie has the obvious potential to drive easterly moisture from the Tasman from Monday as the low re-develops into a Tasman low as being shown by all models. So yes, temperature from Monday onwards is the biggest concern at the moment.
     
  42. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,093
    Likes Received:
    278
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    [​IMG]
     
    #592 Stratus, Aug 6, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  43. Squidly

    Squidly One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2004
    Messages:
    1,963
    Likes Received:
    42
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    Thats a reasonable 4 day prognosis for some useful snowfalls IMO, 10cm a day for the next 3 days, although likely to be wet snow, it at least won't blow away.
     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    110,287
    Likes Received:
    47,071
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    Currently going as I expected. IMO at least from now on it should be gain from here above 1500 m so the worst should be over.
     
  45. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    70,312
    Likes Received:
    24,321
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    Agreed.
     
  46. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    70,312
    Likes Received:
    24,321
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    I cant check the soundings on this computer, but if someone could post them up for this morning that would be great. Dunno if this is more observations but I use them for my predictions, even though they are obs.
     
  47. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,093
    Likes Received:
    278
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    Soundings from what location?
     
  48. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    70,312
    Likes Received:
    24,321
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    Umm Melbourne and Adelaide will do.
     
  49. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,093
    Likes Received:
    278
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    From the Bureau's site :

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #599 Stratus, Aug 6, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  50. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    70,312
    Likes Received:
    24,321
    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    Cool thanks mate [​IMG]
     
    #600 Vermillion, Aug 6, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013