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2nd - 11th August Predictions

Discussion in 'Weather' started by loweee, Jul 21, 2011.

  1. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    I don't think the worst is over for NSW. Still 2.3 in Perisher and the temps NW and W of the resort are not showing any real good signs of dropping. Temps feeding into this low around Tas are also high.
    Not a good result all round and it is not looking much better for the next few days.
     
    #601 Outlooker, Aug 6, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  2. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    Temps have dropped quickly up at NSW resorts in the last hour with 0c now approaching for 1800m so agree with CC that we should do OK from now on.
     
    #602 loweee, Aug 6, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  3. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    Temp on BOM AWS at Perisher is still 2 deg & 30mm and 0.6 at Thredbo. (6.30). Seems unusual that the Top of the V8 is showing 0 deg, but still not instilling confidence that it is going improve much.
     
  4. BH

    BH One of Us

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    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    AWS at perisher stopped working at 6.20 pm....going by the perisher site.
     
  5. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    IMO it's not looking fantastic, where's Donza he should be hung for his predictions!!!
     
  6. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    Buller down cold, the cold pool has arrived. Storms are a bit scattered but from now on it should be snow at resort level.

    Donza is sitting in the rain in Jindy sulking.
     
  7. Mothy_Peak

    Mothy_Peak First Runs

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    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    Cheer up

    There is so much moisture and cold air around at the moment,something will come of it.

    All that rain is being recycled and is rotating and being fed back into the BSCOL (Bass Low), then fed back over the mountains Sunday afternoon, and hopefully Monday night it will be a bit colder now.

    So 50mm of rain should be recycled into at least 50cm of snow.

    Its just an unusual system.
     
  8. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    At best maybe 20cm total but more likely half that, it should dry up now with the cold air arriving.
     
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    Concur. There is rotation of the moisture, but with high pressures as they are, I think 20 cm is the best case scenario. IMO
    The middle of the week remains interesting, but also marginal.
     
  10. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    Am wondering if adiabatic effects start to come into play now. Locally some areas might benefit but it's debatable how much.
     
  11. GazStreats

    GazStreats Hard Yards

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    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    Going off radar/current temp's. Falls could get some really good snow over the next few hours. NSW resorts; look a bit warm. Might be lots of rain <img src="https://www.ski.com.au/xf/styles/graemlins/smirk.gif" alt="\:\/" title="smirk" height="15" width="15" />
     
  12. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    AXS R is out. If the temps stay right until Tuesday then VIC resorts could get a good amount of snow.
     
  13. Mothy_Peak

    Mothy_Peak First Runs

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    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    This system is starting to intensify. IMO

    Good snow falls are about to hit this afternoon and in to Monday. Pressure Dropping.

    Offshore, Its now picking up loads of moisture of the East Australian Current (water temp 20c) and condensing over 12 c water in Bass Straight and rotating back in t the cold air, for more snow?

    But there is almost to much moisture for late Tuesday Wednesday. Need some more cold upper atmosphere air to be sucked back into the low . Is there new cold air feeding the low?

    How the low low tightens up and spins is critical at the moment. Implosion accounts for the conversion of heat energy (loss of heat) into kinetics energy (clockwise rotation). Low needs to intensify in the next 24hrs.






     
  14. Mothy_Peak

    Mothy_Peak First Runs

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    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    For e.g. we need better rotation and more intensification of the BSCOL low than BOM currently predicting and or willing to show using AXS Regional (R) synoptic models. Global models (GFS) are not dealing with High SST off Merimbula. The water is warm we just went swimming in boardies and its usually 403 wettie time

    Alas Le BOM don't like to show the tight morphology and location of the low on there charts as they are difficult to predict. Satellites from her on in, i think for Wednesday system. Same system really.

    IMO
     
  15. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    It's also just numerical noise. The exact location of the minimum value of MSLP will jump around a lot in between timesteps, which is part of the reason why you can't use minimum MSLP as a criteria to validate numerical predictions of cyclone tracks.
     
    #615 Rush, Aug 7, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  16. Mothy_Peak

    Mothy_Peak First Runs

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    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    Agree
     
  17. Squidly

    Squidly One of Us

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    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    4 day BOM chart looking better IMO for Mon and Tues with the trough line pitching further south, with potentially slighly colder air being drawn in to the low.
     
  18. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Re: 2nd - 9th August Predictions

    The news weather just said a 'second more intense low' will move thru Vic tonight causing rain to intensify...... And are now going for just 14 in Melb. Tuesday and rain periods. Promising IMO
     
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    IMO a few interesting days coming.
    Models (GFS, EC and UKmet) are in reasonable agreement.
    My evaluation at the moment:
    Monday/Tuesday - 10 to 15cm snow (freeze line around 1500m perhaps a tad less).
    Wednesday - 15 to 30mm rain below 1800 (at a rough guess), snow/snot above.
     
  20. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    What do you think we need to break even after all the snow melt this week CC?
     
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    IMO I dont think this system will deliver it.
    As it stands whatever we get in the next two days will be cancelled out on Wednesday. At best we will have a slight net gain on where we started this morning, which won't cover what we lost last week including Saturday.
    Look to the next system, IMO.
     
    #621 Claude Cat, Aug 7, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  22. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    Wednesday could be a tad interesting for NSW at least. Very marginal.

    Again, position of the low on the day is crucial but if it were to come off as the BOM 3day charts there could be a small chance of some wet snow in NSW, with the best location for snow west of Newcastle. Vic is in for rain whichever model you look at, some quite heavy.

    Of course I'm erring on the positive side. It'd be heart breaking to go up in the middle of august with only 1m of base.
     
  23. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    Vaguely promising from the BOM
     
    #623 filski, Aug 7, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    This mornings charts (EC & GFS) are still on this track, IMO. GFS is going for more rain & higher freeze level than EC, but either way Wednesday isn't looking the best at the moment. UKmet is more with GFS at this stage, IMO
     
    #624 Claude Cat, Aug 8, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  25. GazStreats

    GazStreats Hard Yards

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    I think 15-30m of rain on Wednesday is excessive. Feeling that front come through now- cloud but no rain. Predict that it will be a bit of a fizzer come later week.
     
  26. Brindabella

    Brindabella Hard Yards

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    Ok guys BOM's 4 day charts are up. What are they saying?
     
  27. Mils

    Mils One of Us

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    #627 Mils, Aug 8, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    IMO GFS is more optimistic about 850 hPa temps for Wednesday. 3pm run is showing the freeze level around 1400m midday Wednesday, which is much better.
    But on the flip side, the moisture is much less, I'm thinking it's going to be relatively dry. Still, better than rain. Afternoon ACCESS appears in agreement.
     
  29. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    AXS R has snow temps until Thursday. Though, like GFS, not showing any moisture.

    As the low hits the Tasman and intensifies a lot of moisture will be fed from Coast to the west, but it only a little bit will reach the resorts by the looks of things. This will fall as rain. Buller should be pretty immune at this stage. 5mm - 10mm rain possible for Falls, little less for Hotham.

    I'm not too worried about it.
     
  30. Squidly

    Squidly One of Us

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    A south easterly should produce some moisture I would of thought?

    5-10cm snow each day should be quite possible IMO?
     
  31. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    (For VIC) The charts are suggesting the snowline will be retreating after Wednesday by the looks of things. A South Easterly is typically a moist and warm airflow. It depends largely on the location of the centre of the low (hard to predict where it will intensify), but at this stage I can't see much from it reaching Hotham / Falls at all. The low is very weak, it will intensify but not until its futhur out into the Tasman IMO. Which is luckily because the HOT SST's off the east coast of VIC would have fueled an epic Pineapple.
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    IMO there's still divergence in the models for Wednesday. Both CMC and UKmet still have moderate amounts of moisture and warm 850 hPa temps. CMC showing these around 5C, and UKmet somewhere between 0 & 5 (warm "5C bubble or pool" over western Tas).
    EC still to come.
     
  33. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    Being a more typical scenario I'm tempted to back GFS. Well I would wouldn't I [​IMG]
     
    #633 filski, Aug 8, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    EC still looks marginal (but better) on Wednesday for temps. Still showing precipitation for Wednesday but less than yesterday. IMO
    [​IMG]
    Very similar to UKmet but a tad colder over the continent.
     
    #634 Claude Cat, Aug 8, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  35. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    #635 skiflat, Aug 9, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  36. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    Models have trended towards cooler outputs. It's a case of where the moisture is now

    Imo
     
  37. Milo_Kid32

    Milo_Kid32 First Runs

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    Temperature apparrently dropped to nearly -4.5 last night at base perisher. 11cm snow the night before. less spring like now which is good.
     
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    IMO it will be closer to the lower end of that range, especially for Buller and Vic alps. I'm not really convinced there's that much around. Eg I expected more yesterday.
     
    #638 Claude Cat, Aug 9, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  39. Squidly

    Squidly One of Us

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    Although it is further south, east and north east Tas has been getting hammered recently, so there is moisture around in this low.

    For the Vics, you would want to get the right mixture of moisture and cold air, IMO for Wed/Thurs you could be in for decent surprise.
     
  40. nisstrust

    nisstrust One of Us

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    I am calling 20cm~ of accumlation by friday for Vic resorts.
     
  41. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    IMO 5-10cms of new snow at Buller by Friday morning IMO

    At least the earlier predictions of quite a bit of rain have gone IMO
     
  42. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    Frickin chilly in Sydney today - Don't think we'll be getting to the forecast max of 17, currently a mere 13!
     
  43. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    ACCESSR is out and it's "interesting"

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #643 skiflat, Aug 9, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  44. Squidly

    Squidly One of Us

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    Is that alot of rain or alot of snow?
     
  45. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    Thats certainley a lot of something or other.
     
  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    IMO it's marginal. Winds from the SE aren't usually very good for Victoria. Perhaps net gain above 1600m.
    GFS is also calling for a lot of moisture in the same region.
    [​IMG]
     
    #646 Claude Cat, Aug 9, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  47. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    I think AXS R has become a bit excited with the high SST's. An over estimate of moisture.

    The 850 temps from the SE are 2-4C for that period. That would be wet snow at best IMO for Hotham / Falls to begin with, turning to rain by the end. Baw Baw would be annihilated with rain.
     
  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    [​IMG] GFS 3pm has virtually removed all that moisture - back to showing 5-10mm for the alps, IMO. Much more realistic.
    It does look to be very cold Wednesday night, though.
    [​IMG]
     
    #648 Claude Cat, Aug 9, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  49. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    The moisture is 'above' the 540 line. I do have my concerns about the warm source. The cold pool on the 500 charts is split and decaying by late Wed so agree it is marginal. Strong easterlys over Vic and closer to the warm source, southerly for NSW, better cold air but less precipitation.

    Going to come down to nowcasting (observations$
     
  50. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    This system still has a lot more pain in it.

    Bananna shaped high in the Tasman and spreading across NZ and into the Pacific. This is dragging nothing but warm air into the following low.

    [​IMG]

    Forget the next 7 days. Nothing good to come before Tuesday to me Honest. IMO IMO IMO
     
    #650 Katanga, Aug 9, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013