2nd - 11th August Predictions

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by loweee, Jul 21, 2011.

  1. Mothy_Peak

    Mothy_Peak First Runs

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    The chart posted above was for this morning and its been below -3 c all day today at Eagle Nest, Crackenback Ridge below the "Rams Head"

    See updated chart by Le BOM for 10 am Wed http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/msl_36hr_forecast.shtml. (Some one please explain how to download image onto forum, Please at least point to link)

    This chart suggest that its gonna snow pretty good in the next 48hrs. It must be sucking in cold air in from NZ which just got smashed by some cold fronts. IMLA (In my limited analysis) he he.

    Interpretations and predictions should be based on real time data as well as synoptic charts. This forum for these dates has shown me That Axcess -R is the shit and better than GFS for snow predictions.

    So thanks for this forum.

    Signing off.
     
    #651 Mothy_Peak, Aug 9, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  2. Mothy_Peak

    Mothy_Peak First Runs

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    #652 Mothy_Peak, Aug 9, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  3. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    I am at falls. Thank you all for all the predictions over last 2 weeks...

    Is snowing now and has been for last few hours; sometimes heavily

    The snow is not showing on radar or obs but 2+cm has fallen already

    I observe bom radar shows moisture heading towards the mountains and given what has fallen in last 3 hours...

    I predict a further 10+cm and am realistically hopeful of more...

    Do i really have to add IMO?

    IMO
     
  4. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    You need an image URL - one ending in .jpg .gif .png or similar. In Firefox, right click on the image and choose Copy Image Location. This one is http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDG00104.png?2011-Aug-09-01:52:15, but you need to edit off the ?2011-Aug... bit. Then put that inside a couple of image tags, like this:
    <div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header"> Code:</div><div class="ubbcode-body ubbcode-pre" style="height: 34px;"><pre>[​IMG]</pre></div></div>
    That will give:

    [​IMG]

    But note that isn't a static link; it will update when BOM updates the page. If you want it static you need to copy the image, upload it to somewhere web-accesible, and link to that instead. (By doing that you are, of course, breaching BOM's copyright.)
     
    #654 Gerg, Aug 9, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  5. Mothy_Peak

    Mothy_Peak First Runs

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    Sweet
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    yr.no showing 14cm for Buller tomorrow. IMO on the latest charts this seem about right.
    It's also suggesting similar totals although moving into Thursday for Thredbo.
     
  7. Mils

    Mils One of Us

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    any chance its going to come north to the nsw resorts?
     
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    See my update above. [​IMG]
     
    #658 Claude Cat, Aug 9, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  9. Budgiesmuggler

    Budgiesmuggler A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions


    mmmm.... IMO maybe you should take this comment back??
     
    #659 Budgiesmuggler, Aug 9, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  10. BH

    BH One of Us

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    ....nah it was a rubbish call!!! NSW are way behind...
     
  11. Crowds74

    Crowds74 Hard Yards

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    #661 Crowds74, Aug 10, 2011
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  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    It will be interesting to see how this one pans out, with the weather coming from the ESE. Usually not a great snow bearing quadrant for Victoria.
     
  13. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    Temps are good, might be a good 10+cm in this
    IMO
     
  14. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    Way behind? From the past system? You obviously didn't ski Perisher over the weekend. The base is deep and solid.
     
    #664 smitty484, Aug 10, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  15. davidr

    davidr Hard Yards

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    lots of moisture heading into vic - hotham may do well but it may not penetrate to falls as the uplift is on the eastern side
     
  16. GazStreats

    GazStreats Hard Yards

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    Already snowing at Falls, both are going to get some massive snow. 15-30 cm's IMO.
     
  17. Crowds74

    Crowds74 Hard Yards

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    What about buller IYO?
     
  18. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    Yeah, I have found Falls doesn't do that great with SE'ly. The air mass dries out fairly quickly...HOWEVER, it could be OK in this case.

    I would be calling 15cm - 20cm from it.
     
    #668 Stratus, Aug 10, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  19. davidr

    davidr Hard Yards

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    similar amounts IMO - plenty of moisture and its staying cold
     
  20. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    Models are predicting 850temps to rise this afternoon and tonight, before becoming cooling early Thursday morning. This is better then what was being predicted a few days ago which is good.

    It's quite likely Falls / Hotham might not see any rain now.
     
  21. davidr

    davidr Hard Yards

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    looking very good - DP is getting smashed and will probably do the best (bit of a waste really)
     
  22. IcepiK

    IcepiK Hard Yards

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    If it holds it will be good for Dinner Plains annual sleddog races.
     
  23. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    This afternoons AXS R showing 100m+ for Gippsland today and tomorrow!
     
  24. GazStreats

    GazStreats Hard Yards

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    Link please.
     
  25. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    #675 Stratus, Aug 10, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  26. GazStreats

    GazStreats Hard Yards

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    Thanks. This is insane, looking at everything at our disposal, this is going to be a massive dump. Anyone keen to up there guesses at how much snow over the next 12-24 hours? IMO it's going to be over the foot mark for the VIC resorts.
     
  27. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    Warning: Contents of this post may be a wild exaggeration.
    Besides which a foot is not exactly massive and may not even happen.

    IMO
     
    #677 The Plowking, Aug 10, 2011
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  28. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    If Baw Baw stays in the negatives it would receive a massive amount. However, it is likely it will get over 0c later this afternoon / evening.

    Falls doesn't typically receive heaps of moisture from the SE due to topography. The airmass usually dries out quite quickly after dumping its guts over Gippsland.

    I'm going to be optimistic and say 20cm for Falls to be reported tomorrow morning. Buller would usually pick up SFA from this type of system, but it appears otherwise so far - calling 15 - 20cm for them. More likely the former.

    Baw Baw....well, this one is just too hard to call!



     
  29. GazStreats

    GazStreats Hard Yards

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    Warning: Saying other peoples posts are exaggerations and then not giving any actual opinion- is about as good as swimming on land.

    IMO
     
    #679 GazStreats, Aug 10, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  30. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    Having a closer look I'll take a guess and say Hotham will pick up the most IMO. They seem better positioned for this system.

     
  31. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    Easily 10cm at falls already. It hasn't stopped since about 10am and it is not snowing lightly. Based on what happened yesterday I see upto 30 more on the radar. Although the 500 temps rise it seems the 850 stays pretty cool so IMO no or little rain.

    Donza... It's on!

    IMO. IMO.
     
  32. nisstrust

    nisstrust One of Us

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    Looks like those who called it earlier for this SE feed got it right, Well done ! To the naysayers humm...
    Frog has had a few terrible calls this season, or should i say conservative calls this season [​IMG]
     
    #682 nisstrust, Aug 10, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    Stay on topic.
     
  34. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: 2nd - 10th August Predictions

    I predict the very low pressure has helped . 1003hPa (adjusted) at Falls. Very good!
     
  35. choc

    choc One of Us

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    NSW BoM going for 10-25mm of precip down to 1500 tomorrow for Thredbo.
     
  36. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    The 850temps tell the story.

    Warming up tonight, cooling back down tommorrow.

    [​IMG]
     
    #686 Stratus, Aug 10, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  37. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Hello
    A 3 day system that goes for 7 days it seems

    slow
     
  38. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    That moisture feed on the Bom radar is something to behold. How long over the Vic alps? Seems to have a northerly drift...
     
  39. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Cold air will be fed back to the alps this afternoon / evening and should drop them back to freezing. Lets hope there's at least a couple of cm's to fall come this time otherwise resorts will be a big ice block on Friday.

    IMO
     
  40. Slim

    Slim Hard Yards

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    Any gurus want to have a stab at precip levels for each of the majors today?
     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO not much. Perhaps a cm or 2 if you're lucky. The radar and sat pics seem reasonably devoid of moisture over the alps. Only a little streaming in from Mallacoota.
     
  42. Squidly

    Squidly One of Us

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    Probably up to 5cm
     
  43. Slim

    Slim Hard Yards

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    Cheers. was hoping for as little as poss with the temps still +. Looks like NSW might get a bit more than Vic if anything