3-4th August

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Jul 21, 2006.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I have been watching this system on the models for a few days now and really like the look of it.
    Good moisture both on the front and trailing in behind in the cooler air.
    Cold air does'nt look to be a problem.
    Located at 2-3 o'clock on the SH COLA models.
    (will not update)
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    If we get that high ridging into WA in order for this to peak, we could see several fronts bring some moderate to heavy falls to the alps.

    Cut off has formed South of SA, the remainder of the system is carrying on farster than I had thought. Front looks to arrive early on the 3rd. Apologies about the date alteration, still fairly rusty at reading theses SH models.
     
    #1 POW_hungry, Jul 21, 2006
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  2. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Have you seen this emerging development much this winter? I don't look at these bottom up shots much because I don't know what they mean.
     
  3. loc

    loc Hard Yards

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    its hard to adjust to the bottom up shot - feel like i should be doing a handstand to look at it
     
  4. fdxrate

    fdxrate Hard Yards

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    POW, based on that scenerio, could that be more like a 3rd or 4th of August arrival?

    BTW It's good that the prediction covers a 3 day 'window' only as a date range of 4 days or more can potentially span two systems. It was SkiMun who studied the frequency of winter 'cold frontal' systems a few years back, and found that the average rate was about every 4.5 days.
     
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Initially I would have gone with the 5th fdxrate, but i have a feeling the strengthen preceding high deep in the Indian Ocean will stall this system quite considerable. I supose we will have to wait and see. But yeah, putting a date on it looked difficult.
     
  6. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Umm .... thats nearly 3 weeks away
     
  7. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    we have a thinker...

    I'd prefer a 5 wave pattern but it does look quite strong there
     
    #7 Trail Blazer, Jul 21, 2006
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  8. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    I don't really fit in do I ...
     
    #8 dawooduck, Jul 21, 2006
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  9. victor

    victor First Runs

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    That's it I'm off to the travel agent ! Aus season Fizzer.
    :out:
     
  10. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    At the moment according to GFS, the systems appears to be peaking over WA and the "Big H Sandwhich" is going to push it away nicely.

    Just like the previous front that was due to hit us around the 31st of July
     
  11. bad-lattitude

    bad-lattitude First Runs

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    BOM are now showing some promise around 4-5 Aug. It does depend on the eastern high moving on to let the system through, but the ridging is so strong (easily the strongest all season) it is likely that it will penetrate the alps. Far more optimistic that GFS today which is still swinging wildly about on a day by day basis (GFS looks perfect one day, terrible the next, perfect the day after, terrible again....)
     
  12. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    I know its all we've got but - I wouldn't trust these models until we are a few days away.
     
    #12 rossi, Jul 23, 2006
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  13. thepass

    thepass First Runs

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    How do you find out about those dates so far away from BOM? I rarely find anything more than 7 days on BOM.
     
  14. bad-lattitude

    bad-lattitude First Runs

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    actually, I got the dates wrong. The BOM I have access to is only generic 4 day stuff so it is 30-31 July that looks favourable. I'm a week ahead of myself. I don't trust 14 day charts anyway (or 7 really, but at least 7 has a bit more accuracy)
     
  15. longinforearly90s

    longinforearly90s First Runs

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    whats the chance of the large low with big moisture coming in off WA coast near geraldton on 31/7 joining up with the big cold low coming up from below SW WA. looks like they want to join on the GFS 1/8 outlook. this looks like it could have the potential to maintain alot of strength for the ride across.
     
  16. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Well Extended GFS has stuffed its self up tonight so i wouldn't bother looking at then untill it updates again tommorow.

    Hopefully that high on +168 over NSW can p%%s off, to allow more of the goods [​IMG] .
     
    #16 Stratus, Jul 26, 2006
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  17. loc

    loc Hard Yards

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    has anyone checked the 4 day forecast from the bom? is it just me or does it look promising with the cold front sweeping across the lower SE of australia
     
  18. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    It looks promising. It's not just you.

    But..we've all had our hopes dashed by cold front's that pass like the thought of a lost lover, leaving nothing in our hearts...but a cold space and a memory of what could have been.
     
  19. bad-lattitude

    bad-lattitude First Runs

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    rossi, you mean a warm space. A cold space is exactly what we want. Instead, its like P%%ing on your feet on a winter's day to keep them warm (something poor people used to do in England, apparently). No snow, not even yellow snow. Oh dear I have dragged this down a bit haven't I? sorry....
     
  20. Kangaroo

    Kangaroo One of Us

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    To the poorly located highs, F*CK off
     
  21. Megs

    Megs Hard Yards

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    Rossi... you're a crack up!! Thanks for the laugh! :cheers:
     
  22. Froggy

    Froggy First Runs

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    How much moisture and snow are we looking at for this front? I see frog has some prefrontal forecast before this one followed by 2 days of snow and another half day of snow/sleet/rain to finish it off, does it look like we could get a solid day of snow all day? If so will it be much?
     
  23. Bugski

    Bugski A Local

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    Two words: Blocking high [​IMG]
     
    #23 Bugski, Jul 27, 2006
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  24. Croweater

    Croweater First Runs

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    Can't agree Mahtoh, according to the latest GFS,and besides the Green One says it's going to puke this week end! :out:
     
  25. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    Put it this way - if we do not get at least 50cm more this season at Spencers - it will be the worst ever. I called 140.2cm as max depth at end of august and I reckon I am going to be real close with some more traditional westerlies now entering the fray that is this season. Hopefully, my max total is blitzed and we have some incredible spring skiing - for which this season shalt be remembered............I hope.
     
  26. Froggy

    Froggy First Runs

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    I think most of us will be happy with 140.2cm at the end of august as that should translate to around a metre cover at most resorts yeah?

    From all indications it appears the blocking high is moving, Mahtoh why do you think that it will still be a problem?
     
  27. churchy

    churchy One of Us

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    waiting on this afternoon's run, but i reckon some of the fronts in the middle of next week will get through. the high is only predicted to be 1024hpa and i reckon it'll move on a bit faster thanks to the trough moving out into the pacific. this would let the front on tues/weds come further north but still peak in the bight meaning falls, but nothing epic. or it could go cutoff and spin through melbourne... waiting on this afternoon's....
     
  28. loc

    loc Hard Yards

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    looks like the BOM is in agreeance with the Frog now

    snow down to 1300 on the weekend!
     
  29. cactus jack

    cactus jack First Runs

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    I think the latest gfs runs are showing lotsa promise for saturday and sunday, although i do see a little pre-frontal coming with it. But the front certainly looks as though it may stall for a couple of days, although that high does seem to be wanting to push the low out of the way. fingers crossed.
     
  30. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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  31. Alex.C

    Alex.C One of Us

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    #31 Alex.C, Jul 27, 2006
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  32. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Uh....its only $5 a month ya know!! :p

    [​IMG]
     
    #32 Stratus, Jul 27, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  33. Scholesy

    Scholesy First Runs

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    Copy the link and paste in firefox, then hit refresh. Works every time... or spend $5 a month...
     
  34. cactus jack

    cactus jack First Runs

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    BN i think that front is a little messy to be oh yeah'ed at this stage, but i certainly would love to see it come off, and it definitly shows promise, but lets wait till it looks the same at +96 and then we can oh yeah together!.
     
  35. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    My "Ohh yeahh" was a sarcastic one...haha.

    Does look very...how do you put it...'one off out of nowhere'...BUT you never know!!
     
    #35 Stratus, Jul 27, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  36. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Said exactly the same thing to the Missus.
     
    #36 rossi, Jul 27, 2006
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  37. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    The Ice Queens wintery fingers are starting to reach up from the cold depths of Ant-arctica to touch the Snow Goddess of the Australian Alps who will ...deliver her heavenly bounty in early August.

    :woohoo: [​IMG] :woohoo: [​IMG]
     
    #37 rossi, Jul 27, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  38. adminvb

    adminvb First Runs

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    rossi,
    You best take a cold shower. The Ice-Queen of this year is really just a tease who leads you on with dreams of getting passed first base but just won't deliver when she gets you all hot and sweaty. Unless she suddenly loosens up a bit she's gonna keep you interested but stuck on first base for a while yet. Biatch.

    Can't believe those GFS charts for 4th and 5th. If they come off it will go a long way to fixing the NSW drought after the rains of the last couple of weeks.
     
  39. BlueMountains

    BlueMountains First Runs

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    Yeah, cold air in the uppers is certainly looking better on the long wave charts than it has so far this winter but this system or progged system is too far away for any substantial guestimates as yet. I would be surprised if we don't get a pretty big system some time in August though.
     
  40. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Lots of L's starting to appear in the maternity ward.

    [​IMG]
     
    #40 rossi, Jul 27, 2006
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  41. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Wow look at the 1040high over NZ [​IMG] . Melt i say melt.
     
    #41 Stratus, Jul 27, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  42. adminvb

    adminvb First Runs

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    Don't you dare say that. I'm bailing this snowless desert and heading there mid August instead. :p
     
  43. main street

    main street Sun Peaks Resident

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    Spectacular day over here today ( Auckland )... but same for all NZ.... Same again tomorrow....

    I don't like your chances of success though... :out:
     
  44. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Watch and wait....just watch and wait [​IMG] . (I heard that 1040 high is strengthing to a 1068 by tommorow..shh)
     
    #44 Stratus, Jul 27, 2006
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  45. BlueMountains

    BlueMountains First Runs

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    Is that original? That was very funny! Extended GFS at +216 is looking impressive but we need a few more days yet.
     
    #45 BlueMountains, Jul 27, 2006
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  46. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Well...yes, did I say something wrong?
     
    #46 rossi, Jul 27, 2006
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  47. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hi guys and gals / weatherwatchers, here's my first one ( a novice) why wont the Hi below us squeeze this L up and over the NZ hi [​IMG]
     
    #47 nfip, Jul 27, 2006
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  48. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    because Highs suck.
     
    #48 rossi, Jul 27, 2006
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  49. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    the big one. :p
     
  50. snwbrdr

    snwbrdr First Runs

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    It would be sweet if the high holds it position over NZ for a couple of days as this Low dumps a little white stuff on our heads. I am pouring a beer on the Ice Queen to get her drunk, that might loosen her up