3-4th August

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Jul 21, 2006.

  1. snwbrdr

    snwbrdr First Runs

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    Please correct me if I am wrong (and I know you will) but isn't that what happened to the Strez Range last year and snow was recorded down to Apollo bay, and it was not predicted, just a medioca snow fall was expected.
     
  2. Falls expat

    Falls expat One of Us

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    I know that the models are not very exciting for up and coming snowfalls just yet, but if I were to stand back and look at this satellite picture I would say it looks pretty good for some snow.

    [​IMG]

    You have a nice pre-cooling front passing through WA and the bight with a follow up system winding up to come through from the SW.

    Judging by the way the GFS model has changed just in the last 24hrs I would not rule out something from this system.

    Sometimes empirical methods are better than the models.
     
    #52 Falls expat, Jul 28, 2006
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  3. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    posted by Falls

    Amen!!!!!

    Have to agree with Falls on his assessment of the sat pic - was just admiring it myself!

    Of particular interest, can anyone else see the beginnings of a potential L cell forming just west of Adelaide? Me thinks that's an interesting addition to the two fronts coming in from SW of the continent.

    FWIW, its bl00dy cold wet and windy here in Perth!

    Fingers crossed :angel:
     
    #53 woggybot, Jul 28, 2006
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  4. Mctavish

    Mctavish One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's too far out to take seriously but extended GFS for August 5 is worth admiring today.
     
  5. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Yeh it is far out...looks pretty damm good though!

    However, the scenario is already shown developing in normal GFS so it isn't that suprising.


    Hmm could THIS been the season starter dump? [​IMG]
     
    #55 Stratus, Jul 28, 2006
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  6. adminvb

    adminvb First Runs

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    That satellite pic of Fall's does look tasty. Trajectory looks good too. Could this be the time we get passed first base and go ALL THE WAY? [​IMG]
     
    #56 adminvb, Jul 28, 2006
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  7. Froggy

    Froggy First Runs

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    Frog seems to think so!
     
  8. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    One day, GFS just sorta got high, and produced yet another +168 chart to whet our appetites, only to be shot down in flames a few days later. Whats with the 2 cutoffs???

    If the scenario that is progged currently by GFS comes off, i will....umm, do something i wouldnt normally do because i dont think it will happen.

    NOTE - this is not saying that i dont think we will get 30cms or whatever, but the way GFS has progged it this morning is crazy. Go EC.
     
  9. snwbrdr

    snwbrdr First Runs

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    I would like to make note to the moist air feed comming in from the north, the air temps on it are not too high. Lets hope the vaccum starts sucking in the moisties to feed this developing system. The L cell does look it is going to come to the party and the high over the coast is getting some more potential. I want to place my order for a super sized snow cone [​IMG]
     
    #59 snwbrdr, Jul 28, 2006
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  10. churchy

    churchy One of Us

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    yes, i like the look of the feed of moist air out of the indian. It looks like we'll get a decent hit of moisture and a decent hit of the cold stuff. Still +144, but there are certainly some very positive signs out there.
     
  11. churchy

    churchy One of Us

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    check this gfs at +96. see the cut off low in the indian choc full of moisture. the moisture remains but the surface low seems to disappear beyond +120 so i'm hesitant to trust those charts (expecting a more believeable version this arvo).

    good combination of moisture and cold on their way [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #61 churchy, Jul 28, 2006
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  12. churchy

    churchy One of Us

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    here it is again (yes, i know this and the above gfs are from the same base model).

    shows a fairly nice cold pool in the upper atmosphere over our SE corner, good surface conditions.

    [​IMG]
     
    #62 churchy, Jul 28, 2006
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  13. 5 times

    5 times First Runs

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    I don't know what any of that means but I like the bright colours! They're Pwerty!
     
  14. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    I think GFS at +180 has sh*t itself.

    [​IMG]
     
  15. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Would that scenario be good or bad?
     
  16. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    I don't think the prediction is possible. I cant make out where the 5440 line is and I am not sure about the position of the 5400 with regards to the freeze level, but...It could be a metre of snow or r**n.

    Help me out someone.
     
    #66 rossi, Jul 28, 2006
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  17. adminvb

    adminvb First Runs

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    That's old. Check out the new chart for the 4th. It has the low situated further north.
     
  18. churchy

    churchy One of Us

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    would be snow above 1600m or there abouts. the whole of that cell is in 5440 thickness, but at that stage would consist of NE and E airflow which would be warm.
     
  19. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    It's this arvo's 1500 run of GFS
     
    #69 rossi, Jul 28, 2006
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  20. adminvb

    adminvb First Runs

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    I'm looking at this.
    [​IMG]
     
  21. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Thats +168 the chart I posted was +180 sorry I posted the linked http, you wont see it I think, unless you have WZ silver.

    I'll try again.
     
    #71 rossi, Jul 28, 2006
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  22. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    what a bummer.
     
  23. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Its not going to pan out like the chart predicts.
     
    #73 rossi, Jul 28, 2006
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  24. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    A bit more rational.

    [​IMG]
     
    #74 rossi, Jul 28, 2006
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  25. Mako

    Mako Hard Yards

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    Hmmm O.K. I'm a novice in weather, so what does it all mean....lots of snow or just a bit? Not even going to mention the "other" sort of stuff that falls from the sky.
     
  26. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Charts are all over the joint.

    Borderline at the moment. Could be great could, be ordinary. All the progs have been hysterical this far out so wait and see.
     
    #76 rossi, Jul 28, 2006
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  27. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    i just cant believe how inconsistent the models have been this year compared to previous years. 2 or 3 fronts yes, they're allowed to stuff up on, but there has barely been a single front where they've gotten it right. Is there new data put in there? whats confusing them and making them pump out all of this bullsh*t?
     
  28. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    You can probably blame the weather itself for that.

    Weather models must rely on some historical data for trending or smoothing after the pointy heads have done their thing in the application. This season has been atypical and maybe the real time data inputs have been stuffing the programs around?

    One thing I have noticed is that at some point the longer range predictions will throw out a scenario, then the whole thing goes to shite for a few days then the origninal prognosis comes back into line.

    GFS has been up and down like a whores drawers but funilly enough GASP seems to have been the more moderate of the models with BOM as close second.
     
  29. loc

    loc Hard Yards

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    what does GASP say about this time frame?
     
  30. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Pretty much the same as GFS but without the insane precipitation Thursday and Friday.
    Looks abit like the ECWF model.

    You have to remember that for these longer term predications to pan out every surrounding system has to play its part to make the one we deem as critical appear in the right place at the right time.

    All it takes is one system to wobble and it throws the whole forecast run out. I like to take a snap shot of say, 96 hours out paste it to my desk top as a jpg and then wait 96 hours and compare it to the sat pics and the current synoptics. You'd be amazed at what a subtle change in the real time weather can do to a three day forcast. In general the systems sort of plonk themselves in the right place but a variance of two or three hundred K is a long way when you consider the relatively small area of the Alps. It can mean a difference of hundreds of metres in the freeze level or thickness of the precipitation levels.
     
    #80 rossi, Jul 28, 2006
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  31. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    especially when the models resolution is 20/50 square kilometers.