Predictions 3-9th September

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Aug 27, 2017.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,462
    Likes Received:
    25,927
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Major models (derterm. & ensembles) progging a decent couple of systems in this date range.
    An early peaking system is likely to draw on a West Oz surface trough bringing pre-frontal on 3rd Sep, but it's follow-up is looking solid on the 4/5th. All major models liking something around 4/5th.
    WSW flow looks to favour the northern resorts.
    EC Determ.


    GFS


    CMC
    [​IMG]
     
  2. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,855
    Likes Received:
    1,489
    Location:
    South
    Its looking minty.
     
    Snow Blowey and The Plowking like this.
  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,462
    Likes Received:
    25,927
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    EC12Z


    GFS12Z


    The Canuck
     
    Kletterer and nfip like this.
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    119,356
    Likes Received:
    62,085
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Looking good now, but has the potential to be ridged out.
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,462
    Likes Received:
    25,927
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    GFS 18Z still rogue - needs a backhanding downgrade. Otherwise the set-up looks good for SEP.
    Tas sea level snow will change IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,462
    Likes Received:
    25,927
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    GFS 00Z - Overly bullish with this one which usually doesn't end well.
    Progging big stuff from 4-7thSEP, but the backside looks ridgey.
    Pressure could be better IMO.
    [​IMG]

    Da Canuck 00Z
    [​IMG]
     
  7. Principal Douglas

    Principal Douglas A Local

    Joined:
    Mar 21, 2002
    Messages:
    5,221
    Likes Received:
    573
    Location:
    Jindabyne
    Weatherzone tend to be fairly conservative when predicting snowfall totals but they're calling 10-20cm both Monday and Tuesday

    http://www.weatherzone.com.au/snow/

    +216 but let's share it anyway

    [​IMG]
     
  8. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    18,870
    Likes Received:
    19,964
    Location:
    Canberra
    GFS not looking overly brilliant IMO.
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,462
    Likes Received:
    25,927
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Neither models bode too well for the 3rd. I am looking beyond the 3rd, it's gross.
    [​IMG]
     
  10. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    18,870
    Likes Received:
    19,964
    Location:
    Canberra
    Well despite the initial spell of clear stuff i am confident enough to have told the boss dont expect to see me on Wed/Thurs.
     
  11. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2005
    Messages:
    1,666
    Likes Received:
    2,717
    Location:
    Manly, Sydney
  12. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    18,870
    Likes Received:
    19,964
    Location:
    Canberra
    The reason for my confidence---
     
    snowblowa, mick chopps and nfip like this.
  13. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2005
    Messages:
    1,666
    Likes Received:
    2,717
    Location:
    Manly, Sydney
    I'm really liking this incoming setup, rideable snow till December in the BC!
     
  14. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    18,870
    Likes Received:
    19,964
    Location:
    Canberra
    Will watch this Low centre position as we progress closer to the date.
     
    Alfred14 likes this.
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,462
    Likes Received:
    25,927
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Haha not asking, telling. I like it.

    By the beard of Zues.
     
    alexd, mick chopps and Kletterer like this.
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,462
    Likes Received:
    25,927
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    This has cold outbreak written all over it. Still 192hrs out and GFS's LWT has been all over the shop but it looks the goods if it holds as above.
     
    FourSquare04 and SAsurfa like this.
  17. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    37,219
    Likes Received:
    36,703
    Location:
    woonona
    Funny.
    Friends of Ours decreed Tuesday would be a good day to plan a Jindy to Bright drive in their Mustang. Along the Alpine way. I suggested otherwise. This looks cold... Oomph. Two poweades TM storm.
     
    #17 Donzah, Aug 28, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 28, 2017
  18. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    19,889
    Likes Received:
    21,876
    Location:
    NSW South Co
    another 190 hrs you can issue a dump alert ;)
    oh and I'm riding this one , prefer if it stalls till the 7th.....
    being my next 4 dayer
     
    SAsurfa, mick chopps and Donzah like this.
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,462
    Likes Received:
    25,927
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    As it stands, it'll be snowing for 3 days straight, until the 7th.
    *as it stands.
     
    IAB, Kletterer and nfip like this.
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,462
    Likes Received:
    25,927
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Ball-tearer. Even if we only got half it....
     
  21. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    18,870
    Likes Received:
    19,964
    Location:
    Canberra
    Will be amongst it giving obs Wed and Thurs. ;)
     
    alexd likes this.
  22. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    19,889
    Likes Received:
    21,876
    Location:
    NSW South Co
    Nice Garry !

    [​IMG]
     
    W0nkey D0nkey likes this.
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,462
    Likes Received:
    25,927
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Your boss doesn't stand a chance.
     
    Kletterer likes this.
  24. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    19,889
    Likes Received:
    21,876
    Location:
    NSW South Co
  25. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    18,870
    Likes Received:
    19,964
    Location:
    Canberra
    Spencers Ck. 2 metres + here we come .
     
    DidSurfNowSki, alexd, Tanuki and 3 others like this.
  26. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    19,889
    Likes Received:
    21,876
    Location:
    NSW South Co
    Same same . EC.
    * This all in the 6 - 10 day window.

     
  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    119,356
    Likes Received:
    62,085
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    EC looks great. I still have a feeling that ridging will weaken it.
     
  28. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 12, 2000
    Messages:
    77,661
    Likes Received:
    46,547
    Location:
    Les Hautes Montagnes
    Was just discussing with CG spending next week up there just in case.
     
    Kletterer, climberman and Claude Cat like this.
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,462
    Likes Received:
    25,927
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    I do like how EC's 00Z run; briskly turnstyles the NW Tropicana feed SE ahead, and even past the front on the 3rd; suggesting it'll have virtually no pre-frontal impact, for now.
    GFS 06Z run also starting to suggest the low draws the NW moisture into the bight, ahead and SE of the system on the 3rd.
    Got all the hallmarks of ridge though.
    Still needs work.
     
    #29 POW_hungry, Aug 28, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 28, 2017
    mick chopps, Claude Cat and Mtn2Sea like this.
  30. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2014
    Messages:
    4,253
    Likes Received:
    11,204
    Location:
    Canberra
    Hmm, I was planning a day trip to Perisher on the 5th. Might still do so ....
     
    Ted Harper and SMSkier like this.
  31. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    18,870
    Likes Received:
    19,964
    Location:
    Canberra
    Thats a large magnitude of cold air :eek:
     
    dawooduck, Jellybeans, nfip and 3 others like this.
  32. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2000
    Messages:
    10,782
    Likes Received:
    815
    Location:
    Jimi on Weatherzone. Killara, Sydney
    Watching with interest. The Thredbo One Hit Wonder window runs from the 5th to the 9th
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,462
    Likes Received:
    25,927
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Really need this precursor front to check into Southern WA to see what's on the table for us.
    Divergence is real amongst the models. Follow up on the 6th looking ridged out according to EC and the Canadian. GFS has done its usual toys out the pram scenario.
    Not keen to put forward an estimated total yet.

    EC12Z


    GFS 12Z
     
  34. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2005
    Messages:
    1,666
    Likes Received:
    2,717
    Location:
    Manly, Sydney
    18z is staying on track, a very significant cold outbreak!
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,462
    Likes Received:
    25,927
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    More aligned with EC as well.

    The moisture EC has progged for this system is simply remarkable. It's a direct hit on the alps at the moment, albeit a little quicker than previous runs. I am quite confident will see significant snowfall 4/5th. The back end (6/7th) seemingly a little less likely now with that ridge taking hold IMO.
     
  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,462
    Likes Received:
    25,927
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    119,356
    Likes Received:
    62,085
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Give it another 24 hours and I believe it might come off.
    EC has been pretty rock solid with this.
     
    mick chopps and FourSquare04 like this.
  38. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    6,074
    Likes Received:
    3,477
    Location:
    Wollongong
    This has September 1996 written all over it
     
  39. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    6,074
    Likes Received:
    3,477
    Location:
    Wollongong
    Love it when EC locks onto a system from a long way out
     
    nfip, POW_hungry and Claude Cat like this.
  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,462
    Likes Received:
    25,927
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    unwavering, staunch and confident are words that come to mind.
    There's a good little article floating about that mentions EC's confident, lone ranger prog of Hurricaine Harvey's track... Basically GFS faltered and EC has been bang on.
     
  41. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    6,074
    Likes Received:
    3,477
    Location:
    Wollongong
    Looks coooooold
     
    nfip likes this.
  42. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 15, 2002
    Messages:
    20,407
    Likes Received:
    13,186
    Location:
    Top drawer
    Was thinking the same thing. 90cms in 3 days. Snow on the Wollongong escarpment. Nobody on the hill and you could still ski through the pigmy possum habitat on Summit giving epic top to bottom freshies.
     
    FourSquare04 and SAsurfa like this.
  43. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    74,470
    Likes Received:
    56,988
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    Jane's saying 20-40+ next week...
     
  44. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    19,889
    Likes Received:
    21,876
    Location:
    NSW South Co
    That it does indeed.
    [​IMG]
     
  45. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    19,889
    Likes Received:
    21,876
    Location:
    NSW South Co
    Not sure whats going on with the hot links ^
    It is to do with the changes over the weekend ?

    back on topic.

     
    DiscoStuAU and mick chopps like this.
  46. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2014
    Messages:
    9,287
    Likes Received:
    17,783
    Location:
    Canberra, ACT
    Isn't there meant to be a High in there somewhere ???
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,462
    Likes Received:
    25,927
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Not at 500mb there ain't! But yeah, it's a deep airmass.
     
    nfip likes this.
  48. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    19,889
    Likes Received:
    21,876
    Location:
    NSW South Co
    Yep. Seen here on surface chart .
    Same time stamp.
     
    DidSurfNowSki likes this.
  49. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    74,470
    Likes Received:
    56,988
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    room for improvement.

    yes I'm greedy.
     
    nfip likes this.
  50. Kopite

    Kopite One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2017
    Messages:
    520
    Likes Received:
    676
    Location:
    North Curly
    Looks good! Shame it kicks off the day I head home :(