Predictions 3-9th September

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Aug 27, 2017.

  1. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    GFS has main event further south but still hugging on to the 8th in a big way.----IMO ( still not convinced IMO ).
     
  2. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    GFS mid level moisture has however been upgraded and still a lengthy duration. IMO
     
  3. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  4. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Wed night looking to have a warm air advection period followed by strong convergence and vertical velocity. Should be healthy adiabatic lift IMO.
     
  5. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Gfs this morning looks to have the
    High ridge trying to curl it over a little more imo, access g and r look pretty much the same as last night I think? Imo
    what's the general feeling on this
    System now for tommoz/Tuesday?
    Still generally the same as past days?
     
  6. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Very similar timing. If anything i think the Vorticity and vertical velocity patterns i am seeing may place a little more goodness for Vic resorts than previously indicated. IMO.
     
  7. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    There looks to be a fair bit of nor west to westerly aspect to the system which
    Might lessen the chances of how much
    Snow I might get imo
     
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  10. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Temp Advection- some fluctuating variations withing the cold pool = good production of precip IMO.
     
  11. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Better temps for Thursday/lower snow level?
     
  12. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Plenty of juice, those charts suggesting
    Should see 20-30mm from now through to Tuesday CC and if the snow line stays low we should get not a bad fall imo
     
  13. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    There is some warm in the mix - 850 to 700hPa but its not significant enough to make a drastic fluctuation. Increased Available moisture is beneficial to the goal IMO
     
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  14. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer One of Us

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    BOM predicting a maximum of 160mm (perisher) over just mon, Tues and Wed. Wow!
     
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  15. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Read 'maximum' :)
    I reckon 80cm is almost a given
     
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  16. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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  17. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    Incoming front
     
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  18. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    GFS Upgrade for Thursday Night to Friday[​IMG]
     
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  19. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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  20. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I think my work just got postponed another 10 days.

    Will be broke by end of the season.
     
  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS staying solid on Friday's cut off, cold outbreak. It'll be interesting to see what EC checks in with.
     
  22. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Simulated Satellite looking goodly IMO
     
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  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    That will close the Lyell Highway in Tas, I reckon.
     
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  24. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    and divorced......:)
     
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  25. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    It pays to live not to far away from the snowies
     
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  26. Kayden

    Kayden Hard Yards

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    It's my first winter in Tasmania, anyone know if Deloraine is going to get much snow ?
     
  27. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Its amazing that they can model those snow waves and mimic the Satellite image.
     
  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's behind the Cradle Shadow for this event, so I am thinking a dusting perhaps.
     
  29. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    This thing is a Behemoth. Thats a 522 line over Tassie with a stack of vorticity punching through all in its path. I would not be surprised if 70 % of Tassie gets blanketed IMO
     
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  30. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    -39C @500mb Tuesday AM.... And FL around 650m I reckon snow to sea level is very much so on the cards for Tas. Decent call, I'd say.
     
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  32. Fancy_Pants

    Fancy_Pants Addicted

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    Prediction is that the Omeo way will be the only way to Hotham on Friday. Agreed? 75% likelihood?

    I was hoping for that small, calming window on Friday before the second system but that's no longer the case, crew?
     
  33. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Yep. Could be a problem both ways on Wed. morning IMO
     
  34. Tanuki

    Tanuki Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good reason to be. Once in a decade season
     
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  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC bringing back the biff on Friday. Ridging is not really looking the go here IMO.
    Backed by GFS, EC & AXSG. The Candian is the only nah-sayer ATM.
    [​IMG]
     
  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM now no longer calling a snow level for Monday Tuesday for Western District of Tas.
    "chance of snow or showers" is now the wording. The likelihood of snow to all levels is highly possible IMO.
     
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  37. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    This will be the first full week I've spent at Buller since I lived here in 07.
     
  38. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    That's awesome lol
    Southern vic forecast still steady
    As she goes at 400m!

    Surely she can drop it to 300m
     
  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM backing Friday's Southerly blast. Buller & BB special before the Tas shadow kicks in.
     
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  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    #Relentless

    Perisher
     
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  41. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks good doesnt it.
    Still maintaining the deep fetch.
    [​IMG]
     
  42. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Next Saturday could be like Sunday a week ago, cold blower. Though with a whole lot more underneath!!
     
  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    As it stands, snow down to ~600m for Friday IMO
     
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  44. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Using the BOM forecast for thredbo, and the average of the predicted rainfall which is 145mm as of 5:10PM. Using a simple ratio of 1mm = 1cm of snow IMO (Factoring out all the complicated stuff @POW_hungry hehe) that means 145cm of snow. i would say that probably base depths will go up around 80cm but feel free to correct me if i am wrong. I think we will see something along the lines of this, for the fall in snow depth i copied 1996's very similar season so i thought similar end??
    Compared to 1981 because it fits in it nicely :p
     
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  45. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    The Sat image has the first front so defined still a few hours away but when it hits whoo
     
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  46. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    GFS has the hook earlier but a total bullsye. Could get messy on the roads IMO.
     
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  47. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Driving from Newcastle to Canberra. I predict the temp to drop considerably.
     
  48. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    How do you rate the CANUK (vs the others) for this type of system @POW_hungry?
     
  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's up there. But it tends to have good accuracy inside 144 hours range. CMC 00Z run actually has it in there but it's ridged.

    Given it's 'there' on all models it should have something for us, but the conjecture amongst the models is the mechanics. GFS is cut-off biased and EC is waxing and waning on it's form.
    This said, I reckon it's still good for 20-40cm Fri/Sat, favouring the south (BB, Buller)
     
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  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Another nice lick from the south on Friday

    [​IMG]