GFS has main event further south but still hugging on to the 8th in a big way.----IMO ( still not convinced IMO ).
Wed night looking to have a warm air advection period followed by strong convergence and vertical velocity. Should be healthy adiabatic lift IMO.
Gfs this morning looks to have the High ridge trying to curl it over a little more imo, access g and r look pretty much the same as last night I think? Imo what's the general feeling on this System now for tommoz/Tuesday? Still generally the same as past days?
Very similar timing. If anything i think the Vorticity and vertical velocity patterns i am seeing may place a little more goodness for Vic resorts than previously indicated. IMO.
There looks to be a fair bit of nor west to westerly aspect to the system which Might lessen the chances of how much Snow I might get imo
Plenty of juice, those charts suggesting Should see 20-30mm from now through to Tuesday CC and if the snow line stays low we should get not a bad fall imo
There is some warm in the mix - 850 to 700hPa but its not significant enough to make a drastic fluctuation. Increased Available moisture is beneficial to the goal IMO
GFS staying solid on Friday's cut off, cold outbreak. It'll be interesting to see what EC checks in with.
This thing is a Behemoth. Thats a 522 line over Tassie with a stack of vorticity punching through all in its path. I would not be surprised if 70 % of Tassie gets blanketed IMO
-39C @500mb Tuesday AM.... And FL around 650m I reckon snow to sea level is very much so on the cards for Tas. Decent call, I'd say.
Prediction is that the Omeo way will be the only way to Hotham on Friday. Agreed? 75% likelihood? I was hoping for that small, calming window on Friday before the second system but that's no longer the case, crew?
EC bringing back the biff on Friday. Ridging is not really looking the go here IMO. Backed by GFS, EC & AXSG. The Candian is the only nah-sayer ATM.
BoM now no longer calling a snow level for Monday Tuesday for Western District of Tas. "chance of snow or showers" is now the wording. The likelihood of snow to all levels is highly possible IMO.
That's awesome lol Southern vic forecast still steady As she goes at 400m! Surely she can drop it to 300m
Next Saturday could be like Sunday a week ago, cold blower. Though with a whole lot more underneath!!
Using the BOM forecast for thredbo, and the average of the predicted rainfall which is 145mm as of 5:10PM. Using a simple ratio of 1mm = 1cm of snow IMO (Factoring out all the complicated stuff @POW_hungry hehe) that means 145cm of snow. i would say that probably base depths will go up around 80cm but feel free to correct me if i am wrong. I think we will see something along the lines of this, for the fall in snow depth i copied 1996's very similar season so i thought similar end?? Compared to 1981 because it fits in it nicely
It's up there. But it tends to have good accuracy inside 144 hours range. CMC 00Z run actually has it in there but it's ridged. Given it's 'there' on all models it should have something for us, but the conjecture amongst the models is the mechanics. GFS is cut-off biased and EC is waxing and waning on it's form. This said, I reckon it's still good for 20-40cm Fri/Sat, favouring the south (BB, Buller)
