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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Aug 27, 2017.
EC/YrNo Perisher Tonight-Saturday - 146mm
Overlay it on 1992 because IMO it's the 'mega season' that feels the most similar to this one.
Tonights GFS has friday's system moving through quickly. It's all about the timing and mine is cactus this week. Contracting till wednesday so i'm going to miss the best of it. Was hoping for a big friday saturday also.
Here it is, Left 81 in there as reference. I reckon we will beat 81 in depth by the end of this year repeat of last October and we are in the money IMO
Predicted Data Relates To 2017 Only.
Could I be a nuisance and ask for 2000 and 2004 overlay as well.Cheers.
2000 started very early with 1m in late may. Wasn't skiing enough then to follow the later part of the season.
My memory of 2004 was lots of excellent quality snow from mid June through August. Can't remember the later part of the season but we skied 31 October On a pretty decent but selective Main Range cover.
Coming right up, I can do many overlays! If anyone wants any graphics let me know i can go well beyond this to
The dream season! This would be amazing if this happened! If all goes to plan then a October dump happens to we will be skiing well into November IMO. Thoughts? Yes i did rip the 2016 October dump to the chart
Love your work.
But believing we will get half the models.
2.0 m parties are locked in.
3.0 not so sure .
What time tommoz would we be starting
To see that real low level snow developing through southern vic?
^^^Maybe one for the barbie thread yo...
18Z GFS puts some gusto in this psuedo cut-off. It has it rolling through the NW Tas. Looking like it hits the sweet spot again for the alps.
Here you go Hope this helps.
AXS R has 528 line sweeping past Melbourne around midday. SO earlier to the west and later to the east.
I made the 2017 Prediction based of half, well in fact the averages so if it said 30mm - 60 mm i put it as 45mm on the chart it ended up being around 75cm gain + Fridays something like 15cm
Early to mid-morning for The Otways, moving East throughout early arvo IMO.
Places like Beech Forest, Mount Sabine, Weeaproinah should see flakes from around 6-10am IMO.
Tas Road Weather & Bush Walkers Alert Issued by BoM
Thanks pow, so a chance for my area lunch time onwards?
Then lasting all arvo and tommoz night
Possible without the flat bit at the top. Once we reach the peak depth for the season the thaw is pretty consistently steep. We might match the peak of 2000 but I'd be surprised if we match the season length of 2000.
Now for that thing....
The next 3 days will bring hazardous conditions, bringing up to 150cm in some areas. With the potential for more later in the week.
Snow to 400m in Victoria. This brings very dangerous road conditions.
Just take that extra bit of care when there is snow on the road in non alpine areas. People aren't used to it, which can bring dangerous responses to conditions.
Skitube is a no brainer. If you must drive to Perisher, both 2WDs and 4WDs should be using chains in these conditions. Take extreme caution.
GAR will probably close at the Harrietville approach to Hotham. Plan to use Omeo approach and also plan for that approach to close too. Try and get to Hotham sooner, rather than later.
Approaches to Buller, Falls and Thredbo will probably require chains to 2WD, and potentially to 4WDs too. Prepare for these approaches to close (car crashes, poor visibility, etc)
There will be a lot of snow on alpine roads in general. Use chains and caution. Don't drive if you don't need too.
Baw Baw, Lake Mountain and Selwyn approaches will also probably require chains to 2WDs and potentially to 4WDs.
Overall, take care please.
Weather conditions won't be great, but the powder will be Australia's finest. Whiteout, heavy snow at times, easy to get lost. Leave steep avalanche prone areas alone and stay out of the sidecountry, unless you have a lot of experience in the area.
As they say, the best powder conditions in Aus are in the worst visibility conditions. Have fun out there and provide pics for those of us who are stuck in the city!
Still tomorrow night for the Strzelecki's >400m 10pm-6am is still your window IMO.
BBQ thread guys...
Yep, stay on topic.
There's plenty of threads to discuss seasons and snow depth.
This thread only for this system predictions.
Hardly ever see chains on 4WD in NSW as it's never legally required (though clearly sensible in some cases)
I know. That's exactly why I said that they should. Even though it is technically legal, common sense should prevail. Just put chains on, for all vehicles.
Should be another fun week driving up and down the hill with 4wd owners over estimating themselves and their vehicles.
Im trying to understand the technical jargon. It seems when this sort of stuff is posted, eventually it comes down to 'oh well, lucky we got 20cm'. Is there really a consensus here that places like buller will actually get more than 20cm over the next week? Are there no pessimists left?
I think Buller could see in the order of 50-70cm tonight through Thursday.
Potentially another 15-30cm on Fri/Sat follow-up, IMO.
Yep I agree with this.
Buller won't get the same numbers as the other resorts, thanks to the westerly wind and the topography. But it will still be very good.
Significant downgrade on 12z GFS IMO with moisture levels for Vic and NSW dropping back. Perhaps just 60cm at best?
I'm sticking with 80cm big 4.
I'm a fan.
Plenty of increasing moisture on the AXS modelling.
*for Friday/ Saturday
The progression for it has not been far off the plot of that character.
So he'll marry his sons wife , who then will become his grandmothers cousin?
For those that are not across day time soap. His name is Ridge.
we'll need 4 day rule soon .
I have no idea who they are. But I am amused that some blokes here do
Nor do I care who they are.
I am looking forward to @Jellybeans1000 review of this period.
I completed the 3 day section on Saturday night, was on crap Buller 3G at the time.
they are some upgrades!
Hmmm YrNo had around 20mm of precip in Perisher by noon today. We've so far hit 10mm with a radar that's mostly clear. Are things late or are we looking at an over-promise and under-deliver scenario.
no, you were looking at model interpretation that has consistently overblown precipitation numbers all year. If you continue to believe the numbers on Yr.no then more fool you.
FWIW, this will probably fizz a bit... and still produce 60+
Seems on track to me. Including what's on the radar and Sat pic.
I think some resorts will break the 1m mark by Saturday. But yeah I reckon 60-100cm is the going rate IMO.
I added in today's predictions in my new column. EC has been brought down to earth.... my personal prediction is 80-110cm at Perisher/Thredbo by Saturday. Buller will be going about 50-70cm. Some leeward places will get more, potentially much more. The forecast of 2m is unfortunately gone, but this should still be a well above average dump.
The Frog really saw it coming huh...
I am not so sure I saw those sort of figures for EC last Sunday though. When I first posted this thread (last Sunday) EC was more looking like 40-60cm after some good rainfall Sunday IMO.
Driving to work today, a melb commercial radio station broadcast an avalanche warning with predicted snow of up to 200cm. Never heard that before.
Happened for BoO 1.0.