Predictions 3-9th September

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Aug 27, 2017.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,057
    Likes Received:
    27,689
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    EC/YrNo Perisher Tonight-Saturday - 146mm
     
  2. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 12, 2000
    Messages:
    78,276
    Likes Received:
    48,184
    Location:
    Les Hautes Montagnes
    Overlay it on 1992 because IMO it's the 'mega season' that feels the most similar to this one.
     
  3. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2016
    Messages:
    308
    Likes Received:
    492
    Location:
    Sydney
    Will Do!
     
    CarveMan likes this.
  4. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    23,845
    Likes Received:
    18,117
    Location:
    Dubbo NSW
    Tonights GFS has friday's system moving through quickly. It's all about the timing and mine is cactus this week. Contracting till wednesday so i'm going to miss the best of it. Was hoping for a big friday saturday also.
     
  5. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2016
    Messages:
    308
    Likes Received:
    492
    Location:
    Sydney
    Here it is, Left 81 in there as reference. I reckon we will beat 81 in depth by the end of this year repeat of last October and we are in the money IMO
    Predicted Data Relates To 2017 Only.
     
  6. Hans

    Hans Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2002
    Messages:
    941
    Likes Received:
    5
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Could I be a nuisance and ask for 2000 and 2004 overlay as well.Cheers.
     
    Infinity Dawn likes this.
  7. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    23,845
    Likes Received:
    18,117
    Location:
    Dubbo NSW
    2000 started very early with 1m in late may. Wasn't skiing enough then to follow the later part of the season.

    My memory of 2004 was lots of excellent quality snow from mid June through August. Can't remember the later part of the season but we skied 31 October On a pretty decent but selective Main Range cover.
     
  8. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2016
    Messages:
    308
    Likes Received:
    492
    Location:
    Sydney
    Coming right up, I can do many overlays! If anyone wants any graphics let me know i can go well beyond this to :)
     
    Rick Ross Da Boss and AJS like this.
  9. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2016
    Messages:
    308
    Likes Received:
    492
    Location:
    Sydney
    The dream season! This would be amazing if this happened! If all goes to plan then a October dump happens to we will be skiing well into November IMO. Thoughts? Yes i did rip the 2016 October dump to the chart :p
     
    Rick Ross Da Boss and nfip like this.
  10. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    20,442
    Likes Received:
    22,874
    Location:
    South Co
    Love your work.
    But believing we will get half the models.
    2.0 m parties are locked in.
    3.0 not so sure .
     
    Infinity Dawn likes this.
  11. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2010
    Messages:
    1,104
    Likes Received:
    642
    What time tommoz would we be starting
    To see that real low level snow developing through southern vic?
     
  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,057
    Likes Received:
    27,689
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    ^^^Maybe one for the barbie thread yo...

    18Z GFS puts some gusto in this psuedo cut-off. It has it rolling through the NW Tas. Looking like it hits the sweet spot again for the alps.
    [​IMG]
     
  13. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2016
    Messages:
    308
    Likes Received:
    492
    Location:
    Sydney
    Here you go :) Hope this helps.
     
    Hans, Rick Ross Da Boss and skiingtk like this.
  14. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    23,845
    Likes Received:
    18,117
    Location:
    Dubbo NSW
    AXS R has 528 line sweeping past Melbourne around midday. SO earlier to the west and later to the east.
     
  15. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2016
    Messages:
    308
    Likes Received:
    492
    Location:
    Sydney
    I made the 2017 Prediction based of half, well in fact the averages so if it said 30mm - 60 mm i put it as 45mm on the chart it ended up being around 75cm gain + Fridays something like 15cm
     
    nfip likes this.
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,057
    Likes Received:
    27,689
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Early to mid-morning for The Otways, moving East throughout early arvo IMO.
    Places like Beech Forest, Mount Sabine, Weeaproinah should see flakes from around 6-10am IMO.
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,057
    Likes Received:
    27,689
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Tas Road Weather & Bush Walkers Alert Issued by BoM
     
    doogasnow likes this.
  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,057
    Likes Received:
    27,689
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
  19. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2010
    Messages:
    1,104
    Likes Received:
    642
    Thanks pow, so a chance for my area lunch time onwards?
    Then lasting all arvo and tommoz night
    Potentially?
     
  20. Telemark Phat

    Telemark Phat Pass the butter Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2008
    Messages:
    18,811
    Likes Received:
    14,950
    Location:
    Jindabyne
    Possible without the flat bit at the top. Once we reach the peak depth for the season the thaw is pretty consistently steep. We might match the peak of 2000 but I'd be surprised if we match the season length of 2000.
     
    Majikthise and CarveMan like this.
  21. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    11,050
    Likes Received:
    16,145
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Now for that thing....

    The next 3 days will bring hazardous conditions, bringing up to 150cm in some areas. With the potential for more later in the week.

    Snow to 400m in Victoria. This brings very dangerous road conditions.
    • Just take that extra bit of care when there is snow on the road in non alpine areas. People aren't used to it, which can bring dangerous responses to conditions.
    • Skitube is a no brainer. If you must drive to Perisher, both 2WDs and 4WDs should be using chains in these conditions. Take extreme caution.
    • GAR will probably close at the Harrietville approach to Hotham. Plan to use Omeo approach and also plan for that approach to close too. Try and get to Hotham sooner, rather than later.
    • Approaches to Buller, Falls and Thredbo will probably require chains to 2WD, and potentially to 4WDs too. Prepare for these approaches to close (car crashes, poor visibility, etc)
    • There will be a lot of snow on alpine roads in general. Use chains and caution. Don't drive if you don't need too.
    • Baw Baw, Lake Mountain and Selwyn approaches will also probably require chains to 2WDs and potentially to 4WDs.
    • Overall, take care please.
    Weather conditions won't be great, but the powder will be Australia's finest. Whiteout, heavy snow at times, easy to get lost. Leave steep avalanche prone areas alone and stay out of the sidecountry, unless you have a lot of experience in the area.

    As they say, the best powder conditions in Aus are in the worst visibility conditions. Have fun out there and provide pics for those of us who are stuck in the city!
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,057
    Likes Received:
    27,689
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Still tomorrow night for the Strzelecki's >400m 10pm-6am is still your window IMO.
     
    doogasnow likes this.
  23. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    11,050
    Likes Received:
    16,145
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    BBQ thread guys...
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    120,675
    Likes Received:
    65,196
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Yep, stay on topic.
    There's plenty of threads to discuss seasons and snow depth.
    This thread only for this system predictions.
     
    W0nkey D0nkey, nfip and Jellybeans like this.
  25. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2000
    Messages:
    10,791
    Likes Received:
    826
    Location:
    Jimi on Weatherzone. Killara, Sydney
    Hardly ever see chains on 4WD in NSW as it's never legally required (though clearly sensible in some cases)
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  26. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    11,050
    Likes Received:
    16,145
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    I know. That's exactly why I said that they should. Even though it is technically legal, common sense should prevail. Just put chains on, for all vehicles.
     
  27. Hans

    Hans Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2002
    Messages:
    941
    Likes Received:
    5
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Should be another fun week driving up and down the hill with 4wd owners over estimating themselves and their vehicles.
     
    Rick Ross Da Boss and Jellybeans like this.
  28. dmz

    dmz More cheeeese Gromit Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2001
    Messages:
    5,599
    Likes Received:
    2,012
    Location:
    melbourne
    Im trying to understand the technical jargon. It seems when this sort of stuff is posted, eventually it comes down to 'oh well, lucky we got 20cm'. Is there really a consensus here that places like buller will actually get more than 20cm over the next week? Are there no pessimists left?
     
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,057
    Likes Received:
    27,689
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    I think Buller could see in the order of 50-70cm tonight through Thursday.
    Potentially another 15-30cm on Fri/Sat follow-up, IMO.
     
    Jellybeans likes this.
  30. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    11,050
    Likes Received:
    16,145
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Yep I agree with this.
    Buller won't get the same numbers as the other resorts, thanks to the westerly wind and the topography. But it will still be very good.
     
  31. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    19,125
    Likes Received:
    20,394
    Location:
    Canberra
    70% ? :D
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  32. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2008
    Messages:
    2,070
    Likes Received:
    1,151
    Significant downgrade on 12z GFS IMO with moisture levels for Vic and NSW dropping back. Perhaps just 60cm at best?
     
  33. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,933
    Likes Received:
    10,754
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    Hmm.
    I'm sticking with 80cm big 4.
     
    nfip likes this.
  34. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    20,442
    Likes Received:
    22,874
    Location:
    South Co
  35. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    38,894
    Likes Received:
    39,915
    Location:
    woonona
    GFS

    EC


    *for Friday/ Saturday
     
    hongomania and POW_hungry like this.
  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,057
    Likes Received:
    27,689
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    The progression for it has not been far off the plot of that character.
     
  37. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    38,894
    Likes Received:
    39,915
    Location:
    woonona
    So he'll marry his sons wife , who then will become his grandmothers cousin?

    For those that are not across day time soap. His name is Ridge.

    we'll need 4 day rule soon .
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  38. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2017
    Messages:
    8,915
    Likes Received:
    15,555
    I have no idea who they are. But I am amused that some blokes here do LOL
     
    PMG, Deanski, Claude Cat and 5 others like this.
  39. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2004
    Messages:
    45,044
    Likes Received:
    13,913
    Location:
    Narbethong, Vic
    Nor do I care who they are.
     
    hatto likes this.
  40. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    75,393
    Likes Received:
    58,687
    Location:
    The barber's chair
  41. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    31,380
    Likes Received:
    16,654
    Location:
    Blue Mts
  42. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    11,050
    Likes Received:
    16,145
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    This one?
    [​IMG]
    I completed the 3 day section on Saturday night, was on crap Buller 3G at the time.
     
  43. W0nkey D0nkey

    W0nkey D0nkey One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2017
    Messages:
    2,514
    Likes Received:
    2,846
    Location:
    Wollongong
    they are some upgrades!
     
  44. Floodman

    Floodman Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Nov 1, 2002
    Messages:
    186
    Likes Received:
    69
    Location:
    Bowral
    Hmmm YrNo had around 20mm of precip in Perisher by noon today. We've so far hit 10mm with a radar that's mostly clear. Are things late or are we looking at an over-promise and under-deliver scenario.
     
  45. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    75,393
    Likes Received:
    58,687
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    no, you were looking at model interpretation that has consistently overblown precipitation numbers all year. If you continue to believe the numbers on Yr.no then more fool you.

    FWIW, this will probably fizz a bit... and still produce 60+
     
    The Plowking likes this.
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,057
    Likes Received:
    27,689
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Seems on track to me. Including what's on the radar and Sat pic.
    I think some resorts will break the 1m mark by Saturday. But yeah I reckon 60-100cm is the going rate IMO.
     
  47. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    11,050
    Likes Received:
    16,145
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    [​IMG]
    I added in today's predictions in my new column. EC has been brought down to earth.... my personal prediction is 80-110cm at Perisher/Thredbo by Saturday. Buller will be going about 50-70cm. Some leeward places will get more, potentially much more. The forecast of 2m is unfortunately gone, but this should still be a well above average dump.
     
  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,057
    Likes Received:
    27,689
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    The Frog really saw it coming huh...
    I am not so sure I saw those sort of figures for EC last Sunday though. When I first posted this thread (last Sunday) EC was more looking like 40-60cm after some good rainfall Sunday IMO.
     
    mick chopps likes this.
  49. GS

    GS Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 20, 2004
    Messages:
    10,824
    Likes Received:
    13,146
    Location:
    Yarra Valley Vic
    Driving to work today, a melb commercial radio station broadcast an avalanche warning with predicted snow of up to 200cm. Never heard that before.
     
  50. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    75,393
    Likes Received:
    58,687
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    Happened for BoO 1.0.