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Predictions 3-9th September

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Aug 27, 2017.

  1. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    BoO 1 had the layer of hoar that I don't think is as much of a problem this time
     
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  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS looking at maximums of 75cm or so.
    IMO

    [​IMG]
     
  3. Mctavish

    Mctavish One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Certainly a significant downgrade from 06z Sunday Sept 3
     
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    My take on EC is that we're in for 50-70cm, the back end has tailed off, it looks mostly done by Thursday night.
    I'm not sure today will produce a huge amount, tomorrow on the other hand...
    The yr.no totals for Perisher seem out of whack. For example Hotham (resort level) is just over 50cm by my reckoning.
    70cm would be a more likely total at Perisher.
     
  5. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    yr.no has been on crack all season. numbers have been hugely overblown all year.
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    For Perisher. Perhaps there's an error in their metadata for the location.
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Skewed by 'hot' AWS data in high winds perhaps?
     
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  8. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sounds about right imo
     
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  9. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sounds about right imo
    I like the new column.
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    13mm in Perisher's AWS can since midnight (not even midday yet lol). I don't think we're too far behind.
    Everyone's anti-vibe is killing this thing before it's fallen.
    Watch the embeded troughs band up as the thing starts to take on warm air advection. We're owed about 4 embeds between now and tomorrow night IMO.
     
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  11. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    expectations... It helps if they're realistic
    1ft of blower at 8am today is not one of them...
     
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  12. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    So with the 'downgrades' that some are seeing (from outrageously huge to Just Very Big), is there still likely to be significant low level snow tomorrow? I am driving up to Perisher from Canberra for the day and am just slightly worried about the return trip (will be Skitubing to/from Perisher, I suspect), particularly the stretch of road between Jindabyne and Berridale.
     
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO 'significant low level snow' was never on the cards. You're not likely to be 'snowed in' but snow to 700/800m is the significant part of it and still likely to see some accumulation on roads etc above 900m IMO.
    Snow on roads of this elevation presents problems in terms of closures and stupid people making stupid decisions this is where leaving early, planning etc helps.
     
  14. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking out one window to towards lake Jindy and the mountains and there's snow falling, out the other way it's sunny. Lake level Jindy.
     
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  15. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wed morning perhaps.....
     
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  16. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow and rain mixture out both windows now.
     
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  17. Floodman

    Floodman Hard Yards

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    I withdraw my earlier comment - the radar looked very weak at 9am and 20mm of precip at Perisher by noon looked impossible to get even close, but the radar has really filled in and the total is up to 14.8mm by noon. That's not so bad. And best to come.
     
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  18. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Topography is more important than elevation. It will be cold enough for snow down low but the mountains will suck all the moisture out. So if you get snow it will only be a little bit and is likely to fall in showers with sunny breaks si chance of the road being impassable are negligable.

    Needs to come from the south or east to get decent accumulation on the eastern side of the divide.
     
  19. Gregah

    Gregah Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Is the back end of this system (8th+) still looking as strong @POW_hungry? Is the Canuck still holding out with no cut off or has it come around to EC & GFS' view of the world ?
     
  20. Tasjez

    Tasjez Hard Yards

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    Just listened to the BOM update/forecast on ABC radio Hobart, and they are forecasting snow down to 100 - 200 ASL for Tas Western, Central, and Southern districts,this afternoon and tonight, and then again overnight Thursday/Friday morning.
     
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  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tonight, early tomorrow AM forsure. I won't be surprised if we see reports to SL by daybreak tomorrow in parts of Tas.
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wind was taken out of the sails of this one today. It's still there but influenced by the ridge. If we see it ridged any further I think we'll see bugger all.
    All models leaning towards a clipper front rather than a cut-off scenario, arriving somewhat earlier on Thursday eve.

    But for what it's worth we could still see ~15cm perhaps, all over by Friday night IMO.
     
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  23. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    If you are not quoting parkysthetadpole then there is nil credibility
     
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  24. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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  25. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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  26. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    Pressure looks higher than I'd like throughout
     
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  27. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    What we thinking for tonight snowfall wise for southern vic?
    Are we going to get enough of that speckled air to cause good snow
    To low levels?
     
  28. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Yeah, I was never sold on the 1m+ predictions. Perhaps half that amount IMO.
     
  29. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    We have to be honest that almost everyone eventually fell in love with the models, particularly as they aligned, with the possible exception of the weekend follow up.

    Anyone dropping "it was always going to end up this way" is full of it (a few members on here trot that out nearly every system)
     
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  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    The maximums were nothing like we'd ever seen before - hence the hype and focus on them.
    I see no harm with fantasizing about them - but the realistic expectations must be maintained.

    I don't see pressure looking any worse for wear. We currently have Yarrawonga registering 1007hPa and falling. Here's EC's prog for last week... 1008hPa over NE Vic for tonight. On average, these were maintained throughout the week if you go back through the model trends.
    What pressures were you expecting TB?
     
  31. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    I don't know what I was expecting, I hadn't thought about it. Sandy is the king of pressure! I just thought that what looks like a constant 1016 or so on the BOM 4 dayer is just a little on the high side
     
  32. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    I will look into that.
     
  33. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    There is still 70-90 cm in this period IMO. Whats all the fuss about ? Its only Monday folks. Oh yes what month is it ?
     
  34. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    When the BOM forecasts up to 60mm for tomorrow for Thredbo, does that mean to 9am tomorrow? I believe that is how the BOM approach registers rainfall observations (i.e. it usually mostly falls on the previous day).

    I ask as I wonder whether the 30cm that fell during the day today should be included in the 60mm of precip forecast for 'tomorrow' and that we should therefore only expect up to another 30cm or so overnight, followed by the 'up to 45mm' day from 9am tomorrow.

    If that's how the BOM sees it, it means that we could have less in front of us than common sense might otherwise suggest.
     
  35. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Bom dropped snow level to 300m
    For southern vic for rest of today
    And tommoz morning
     
  36. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I will struggle to remember a 500m forecast.
    Anyone?
    *for nsw
    Snowy Mountains area
    Partly cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of snow showers about the alpine peaks, medium (60%) chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 500 meters at first, rising to 900 metres during the day. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Winds westerly 40 to 60 km/h.
     
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  37. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A hint of ambeded fronto, warm air advection and mid level vapour transfer. Thoughts @POW_hungry et al?
     
  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's the last of the embedded troughs (tomorrow night). Looks fun. Lock me in pls!
    Good to still see the low hanging south-Sou-East of Tas.
    I reckon you may see some flakes in outer/elevated subs of CBR tomorrow mate.
     
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  39. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    As Joe says- nods head approvingly.
     
  40. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Anyone recall snow in Civic.?
     
  41. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep. Knocked off work in Garran/ Woden and snowing all the way to Belconnen. 2000
     
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  42. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Where even is 500m? Will I be snowed in tomorrow morning?
     
  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    No, East of the Brindies will be showery at best IMO
     
  44. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mount Keira
     
  45. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Friday footy?
     
  46. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nah. Was laying bricks . Ended up at the Old Canberra Inn.:oops:
     
  47. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nah I meant was it the time it snowed at the footy?
     
  48. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend Ski Pass: Gold

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    Imagine it!
     
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  49. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes. Drove up to the Brindies next day to the gates at Bulls Head.
     
  50. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    QUOTE="Donzah, post: 3377249, member: 68230"]Anyone recall snow in Civic.?[/QUOTE]
    This is from 1966.
    Forrest / near The Lodge - New Parliament House.