Predictions 3-9th September

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Aug 27, 2017.

  1. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    There was this one time in Harrietville in the 70s when i was a whippersnapper 6 inches in town, oops sorry off topic.
     
  2. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Plenty of dead bongs to measure depth up there.
     
  3. W0nkey D0nkey

    W0nkey D0nkey One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I've had dreams of snow on Mt Keira.
     
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  4. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I've been saying this for a while. For the last couple of seasons they (yr.no) regularly have overestimated the snowfall and underestimated temperatures for perisher. It is almost as if the callibration is off, and it is forecasting for another 200-300m higher than actual resort levels.
     
  5. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Off topic.
    I've seen it a few times on Mac Pass.
    It seemed more common when I moved to Australia.
     
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  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Without getting gnarly on the specifics - cause I partly agree with you. But there are 3 coordinate plot points for 'Perisher'.
    You'd expect PV (first result at 1719m ele) is the accurate forecast point to match the AWS/Resort obs.
     
  7. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Pow - do u think we will see those bass straight showers push north more into
    Gippsland overnight?
     
  8. Kayden

    Kayden Hard Yards

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    Is there any chance of more rain for northern Tasmania, seems that all the rain is getting blocked by the mountains. 1° c and dry at Moltema, Tas (150m asl).
     
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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'd expect mostly showers through Gippsland overnight. They are there but just short quick bursts, which are good at delivering some cold shots of air/downdrafts with snow IMO.
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The nature of a Westerly system I am afraid. Someone was asking about Deloraine last night, so it's the same deal, it's largely shadowed by higher terrain to your West & South.
    Your fruitful systems are Northern inbound, I'd imagine.
     
  11. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Enough for possibly a cover ?
     
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  12. Kayden

    Kayden Hard Yards

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    Is there a certain amount of rain needed to push past the mountains into the rain shadow or will some eventually make it through?
     
  13. alexd

    alexd One of Us

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    Yeah, last year in July, I went from the YHA to the bus stop in the morning before sunrise and it was snowing a bit. Whatever event that was that dropped 40 cm in Thredbo Village and the bus couldn't park until 11 o clock lol.

    Obs: somewhat blustery in thredbo village. Table on lodge getting close to a foot on it. It's a bit lee of the roof but it's also a table. Tomorrow will be sweet first up.
     
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  14. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hmmm

    Falls Creek Forecast

    Tomorrows forecast

    Tuesday 5 September
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -7
    Max -4
    Snow showers. Very windy.
    Possible rainfall: 15 to 35 mm
    Chance of any rain: 95% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of snow showers, with possible hail. Winds west to northwesterly 45 to 55 km/h.

    And a note about wind forecasts from BOM

    Please be aware
    Wind gusts can be 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, .........
     
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  15. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perisher BoM

    Forecast for the rest of Monday
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Snow showers. Very windy.
    Chance of any rain: 80% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Cloudy. High (80%) chance of snow showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds westerly 50 to 65 km/h.

    Sun protection recommended from 10:10 am to 2:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

    Tuesday 5 September
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -6
    Max -3
    Snow showers. Very Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 30 to 60 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds westerly 60 to 85 km/h.

    Fire Danger - Low-Moderate

    Sun protection recommended from 10:10 am to 2:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 5 [Moderate]

    Wednesday 6 September

    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -5
    Max -1
    Snow showers. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 20 to 40 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers. Winds westerly 50 to 70 km/h.

    Sun protection recommended from 9:50 am to 2:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 5 [Moderate]

    Thursday 7 September
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -2
    Max 0
    Snow showers. Becoming windy.
    Possible rainfall: 6 to 15 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers. Winds westerly 35 to 55 km/h tending west to northwesterly 45 to 65 km/h during the evening.

    Sun protection recommended from 9:50 am to 2:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 5 [Moderate]

    Friday 8 September
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -5
    Max -2
    Snow showers.
    Possible rainfall: 2 to 6 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds westerly 45 to 65 km/h decreasing to 35 to 50 km/h during the morning.

    Saturday 9 September
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -6
    Max 0
    Cloudy.
    Possible rainfall: 0 mm
    Chance of any rain: 20% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a snow shower. Winds westerly 15 to 20 km/h.
     
  16. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    Winds 60-85 kmh tomorrow at Perisher - that should be fun!
     
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  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's not something that's based on rainfall rates or humidity in higher elevations. The mountains are literally clearing lower atmosphere of available moisture - reducing it's ability to precipitate, at least until it balances out again (probably somewhere over the Tasman).
    I suspect any rain you are getting is probably light showers originating from high elevations or recycled moisture.
     
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  18. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    @POW_hungry
    I did that first prediction on Monday afternoon or evening. I remember getting the EC data from your post here on Monday. That equals 102.5cm.
     
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    :thumbs:
     
  20. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Interesting on current BOM runs for this week, the blob of subtropical moisture of WA that was looking like being drawn into the vortex Thurs / Friday and seeding up the cold air, now looks like stalling & being drawn into the next low / frontal system.

    Not seeing much in the first wave, but liking the trajectory of the stronger system behind.


     
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  21. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, pretty much sub-tropical the central northern parts of Tassie beneath the Tiers. Beautiful views back to the mighty Tiers after a low level snowfall though.
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Friday is all but gone now. Ridged out on EC. GFS still holding onto hope but trending away from us - as it tends to when on it's own.
    All hail @Donzah .

    Buller and Baw Baw likely to pick up the most here ~10cm.
     
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  23. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Jane's still sorta keen on it.
     
  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    This was always a likely outcome. IMO
    I can see a few cm Friday morning for the majors, Buller and Baw Baw perhaps hanging into Saturday morning.
     
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  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    On a better note Thursday looks better temps-wise than it did a few days ago. Looks like no thaw above 1500m.
    Not a bad thing to see this front progged a little earlier; with it filling in late on Thursday night.
     
  26. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Interestingly I had miniscule precip here on the coast yesterday with clear skies.
    Not a lot , just random drops throu-out the day.
    As the crow flies I'm East of Cbr.
     
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  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some pretty awesome shear above 1000m for you (HERE). There's no telling where those winds are dragging moisture from.
     
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  28. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    How are the winds looking Thursday, seems to be reducing imo. Would be good to get a break so roads and lifts can operate (hotham)
     
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Much more settled throughout Thursday AM/early arvo. It deteriorates again rapidly by the arvo.
     
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  30. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah Huey knows I'm headed over the Badja again Thursday night !
    And my faithfull co-pilot L plater wants to drive :eek:
     
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  31. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah Huey knows I'm headed over the Badja again Thursday night !
    And my faithfull co-pilot L plater wants to drive :eek:
     
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  32. Fancy_Pants

    Fancy_Pants Addicted

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    How 'rapid' and how 'detoriorating'? Still got my fingers crossed that I don't need to go via Omeo Friday morning :/
     
  33. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wedding forecast. Bloody cold with clear skies and a frozen ground.
    Get 3.5 hrs riding in the morning. Then nuptials and swans in the arvo.
     
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  34. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    There looks to be another really good
    Burst of cold air coming up to hit southern vic this arvo?
    What's people thoughts on this little
    Burst? Might get a flurries ?
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM's nailed with snow down to ~700m IMO.
    Should be something in the order of 5-10mm in the low lying East IMO.
     
  36. hatto

    hatto One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Could be interesting today I leave in hour or so
     
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  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS still can't let go of this thing on Friday (00z).
    Looks cold enough to
    [​IMG]
    GFS over cooking it in temps to with sea level snow in Southern Tas.
     
  38. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    This week's snow falls should set up Mt. Bogong BC trips and the Main Range BC missions well into October. I like it !
     
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  39. Kayden

    Kayden Hard Yards

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    Can anyone identify what these are ?
     
  40. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Without sounding like a fool - clouds?
     
  41. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Vic BOM forecaster this morning mentioned the possibility of another system mid next week (13/9 or thereabouts). Can anyone studying the charts comment on the likelihood of this?
     
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  42. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes... I am now of the opinion that august is running a little late.
     
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  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    When they're picked up by 'Zehr Infrared' (colour coded) you're looking at cloud top temps. The one under Tassie is a cold pool, it corresponds with the 528 thickness on the 00z Run HERE SW of Tas.
    The mess under WA is a decaying front. It get's overtaken by the trailing low (your 3rd circled area to the left) and forms Thursday's SW clipper.
     
  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's there, but it's a clipper that gets ridged out IMO, for now.
     
  45. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    happened in Japan this year
    *obviously not August, but you know what I mean
     
  46. JayDee78

    JayDee78 One of Us

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    Sorry, off topic but I remember seeing a photo online and I found it again. 17 July 2004 from Bass Point, Shellharbour. I remember being able to see snow from Mt St Thomas near the WIN studios.
    [​IMG]
    This extraordinary scene for NSW was taken from Bass Point, Shellharbour, looking WSW toward the Barren Grounds, south of Robertson. The ridge on the skyline is about 600m asl, with the snowfield above the surf about 500m asl
    http://www.australianweathernews.com/news/2004/040717.SHTML
     
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  47. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Both gfs and access r liking a pretty cold blast for southern vic on this
    Arvo runs. Imo
    Actually looks like nearly a colder system for Gippsland than this current
    Event, with a direct Sw flow 528thickness and looks like 524 thickness gets right up to bass straight
    Again on gfs? Imo
     
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  48. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yup crazy. That pic was taken from redsands. Remember it well
     
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  49. lardarse

    lardarse Early Days

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    Windhold Falls/Hotham tomorrow?
     
  50. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    If there is more snow coming in mid Sept. then our Mt. Bogong trip on the last weekend of Sept. ( The Football Long weekend) will be snowy :) .