nfip

Cold 'n Rusty
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Jul 24, 2006
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room for improvement.

yes I'm greedy.
Yes.
It's looking to be thru a bit quicker.
We'd all like it to stall extra day or 2 , not just for the accumulation ( we don't really need it now) but for us punters headed uphill Thursday nite.
At it's best in the guts of the storm.
 

mick chopps

Pool Room
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Jun 22, 2006
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Yes.
It's looking to be thru a bit quicker.
We'd all like it to stall extra day or 2 , not just for the accumulation ( we don't really need it now) but for us punters headed uphill Thursday nite.
At it's best in the guts of the storm.
I'll just be taking a sickie and going which ever day is best (or Thursday if circumstances fall through). But across the board it's still got room for improvement. Like to see the Low further north.
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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May 28, 2000
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Just playing with GFS 18Z hypotheticals... If it comes off as currently progged.

Monday night could see snow down to 450/500m in parts of Victoria IMO.
Cloud base around 1500m, cloud tops around 4000m, that gives you an indication of how deep this moisture/airmass mix goes.
Thundersnow possible on Monday.

Melbourne sounding:
29-08-2017 1-43-10 PM.jpg
 

nfip

Cold 'n Rusty
Ski Pass
Jul 24, 2006
22,070
26,860
1,063
Yuin Country
Just playing with GFS 18Z hypotheticals... If it comes off as currently progged.

Monday night could see snow down to 450/500m in parts of Victoria IMO.
Cloud base around 1500m, cloud tops around 4000m, that gives you an indication of how deep this moisture/airmass mix goes.
Thundersnow possible on Monday.

Melbourne sounding:
29-08-2017 1-43-10 PM.jpg

Im going to have to think hard about this tonight.
and do some reading / refresh :)
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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GFS 00Z now puts this thing in the same basket as EC. 4th/5th event with a ridge ushering things along quickly there after on the 6th.
Still bloody cold.
2017-08-29_14-54-19.jpg
 
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col

One of Us
Jun 25, 2005
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wow....looks good for NZ :) could this be the 3rd 100cm+ event for 2017 ?
 

ice_man

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Aug 21, 2008
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Long time no see guys!

Couldn't help but comment on this one, a little too exciting especially given the agreement in the models at this early stage. They do diverge a little on the details but it looks like the basic idea is that a low in the Bight falls over on Sunday, possibly warm and wet at first but as that cold air roars up it's looking extremely cold, thickness and 850 temps look even lower than the last icy cold blast. Snow down to 400m if it holds (although I think it's a little bullish at this point)

BoM forecasting 12 for Melbourne next Tuesday already though... definitely one to watch but all I have to say is: why is September looking like July? ;)
 

travelislife

One of Us
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Jun 9, 2008
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So Buller Saturday? It will be warm but will the rain hold off? Or should wait for the following Saturday for one last go with the snow coming next week?
 

mick chopps

Pool Room
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Jun 22, 2006
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Jane's dropped the "+" from her forecast this morning... 20-40cm. Her EC based 8 day outlook is calling anywhere from ~45-85 for the majors with Buller and Perisher at the opposite ends of the spectrum.
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
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May 28, 2000
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Jane's dropped the "+" from her forecast this morning... 20-40cm. Her EC based 8 day outlook is calling anywhere from ~45-85 for the majors with Buller and Perisher at the opposite ends of the spectrum.
Haven't seen anything from AXS-R but I'll take a punt that it offers some skepticism at the moment - BOM is only vaguely interested.
 

mick chopps

Pool Room
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Jun 22, 2006
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Not to the public as far as I know. But I suspect Jane of all people has the inside edge on that one.
Okay. She's said at times that her longer range forecasts are purely EC though, with the shorter ranger being OCF. Totally expect she's got access to a bunch of stuff the average punter or even accuweather account holder doesn't see.
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Okay. She's said at times that her longer range forecasts are purely EC though, with the shorter ranger being OCF. Totally expect she's got access to a bunch of stuff the average punter or even accuweather account holder doesn't see.
Yeah to have the OCF double what she's forecasting tells me there's something swaying her. I don't see major public models swaying her that way - other than the likelihood of her reading the play of more ridge influence.
 

Jellybeans

Part of the Furniture
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Does Axs-R go beyond 3 days?
Nope. That would be AXS-G beyond 3 days.
She(Jane) probably has got a bunch of tricks up her sleeve, given her forecasting past.
But I have got a few tricks up my sleeve too(pays to know how to get around the internet)
Might be able to help you:)
 
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mick chopps

Pool Room
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Jun 22, 2006
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Latest GFS (18z) is all in, more all in than before, on the follow up. In accordance with the opinions of those of you more knowledgeable and with the general EC>GFS rule I'm imagining this won't happen...
But anyone care to tell me what's the major difference between model runs on GFS? Are some "better" than others?
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Latest GFS (18z) is all in, more all in than before, on the follow up. In accordance with the opinions of those of you more knowledgeable and with the general EC>GFS rule I'm imagining this won't happen...
But anyone care to tell me what's the major difference between model runs on GFS? Are some "better" than others?
06z and 18z GFS runs exclude US balloon data but to my knowledge include Aus balloon data, so a more comprehensive dataset for Aus. Some would argue these are better for Aus model guidance but I find them a little roguey. Much prefer to throw the eyes over all four runs (trend) rather than a particular run.

RE: follow up, I think it's a big ask on paper and GFS is really the only model running with it on a consistent basis so I am just flagging it as model bias for now. Bonus if it was to happen though!
 

mick chopps

Pool Room
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Jun 22, 2006
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06z and 18z GFS runs exclude US balloon data but to my knowledge include Aus balloon data. Some would argue these are better for Aus model guidance but I find them a little roguey. Much prefer to throw the eyes over all four runs (trend) rather than a particular run.
yes, I've learned that hanging ones hat (or hopes) on a single model run is more than a little bit foolish.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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yes, I've learned that hanging ones hat (or hopes) on a single model run is more than a little bit foolish.
I know you know that bit and I hope I don't sound like a know it all dick ('cause I flat don't know it all!), just sharing how I deal with it's bi-polar characteristics.
I personally think the 4 times a day run is its own worst enemy and TBH wish it ran twice a day like EC,I reckon it'd be a much better LR model if it did, but that do nothing for the meso scale...
 
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Jellybeans

Part of the Furniture
Ski Pass
Aug 24, 2015
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Latest GFS (18z) is all in, more all in than before, on the follow up. In accordance with the opinions of those of you more knowledgeable and with the general EC>GFS rule I'm imagining this won't happen...
But anyone care to tell me what's the major difference between model runs on GFS? Are some "better" than others?
This would be the data input list for GFS.
00Z - Weather buoy, satellite data, shipping data, country data, NOAA data
06Z - Weather buoy, satellite data, shipping data
12Z - Shipping data, Satellite data ONLY
18Z - Weather buoy, satellite data, shipping data, country data, NOAA data
They are all useful though, best to keep track off all of them.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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This would be the data input list for GFS.

They are all useful though, best to keep track off all of them.
For the GFS, look at a couple days of 00Z and 12Z runs for consistency. Avoid the 06Z and 18Z runs when 00 or 12 is available; in the U.S. these runs don't include the weather balloon network data (balloons are only sent up twice per day), and are therefore radically different and more likely to have bias.
Via AccuWeather
 
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