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30 May System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, May 21, 2007.

  1. Custard

    Custard One of Us

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    GASP GFS & COLA all looking good for lots of precip and low thickness over vic +48hrs. Cautiously optimistic! I reckon Falls is going to get pasted by this one. Somewhere in the order of 40cm from Tues night till Friday. And lots of rain everywhere!! YAY [​IMG]
     
    #151 Custard, May 28, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  2. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOMS not to keen (snow)on it yet. Good drenching though I would say.
    From Bom.....
    Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
    Victoria
    P.O. Box 1636 Melbourne Vic 3001 http://www.bom.gov.au

    Alpine Areas District Forecast
    Issued at 0540 on Monday the 28th of May 2007

    Warnings:
    A Severe Weather Warning for localised damaging wind remains current.

    Weather Pattern:
    A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea will drift slowly eastwards. A weak
    cold front is sliding past western Victoria this morning. A stronger cold front
    will reach western Victoria by Tuesday afternoon, clearing the State early
    Wednesday as a low pressure system deepens south of Tasmania. Another cold front
    will reach southwest Victoria late Thursday.

    Forecast: Monday
    Fine at first. Isolated showers developing this afternoon. Strong north to
    northwest winds, reaching gale force at times.

    Outlooks:
    Tuesday Rain increasing with locally heavy falls developing. Isolated
    thunderstorms possible later. Strong to gale force north to northwest winds.
    Wednesday Early rain tending to scattered snow showers.
    Thursday Scattered showers, falling as snow on the peaks. Windy.

    Mt Buller
    Monday Max 6

    Mt Hotham
    Monday Max 6
     
    #152 The Plowking, May 28, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  3. The Heresy Guy

    The Heresy Guy First Runs

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    Still i have my fingers crossed this system is the start of something good for 2007.
    Come on baby dump....
     
  4. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    anyone here got access to wednesday 10am chart.
     
  5. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    the BOM always enjoys a good pants down as far as early/pre season snowfall is concerned
     
    #155 MisterMxyzptlk, May 28, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  6. main street

    main street Sun Peaks Resident

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    GFS of Wed 10 am.... from last nights run though....

    [​IMG]
     
    #156 main street, May 28, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  7. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    cheers.

    Current model runs aren't looking to exciting.

    Most charts are showing heaps of rain followed by some snow. I'd say we'll come out about even.

    Hopefully the system defies the current model predictions and smashes the alps.

    Unless i'm mistaken it looks like some good snow making weather coming up after this system passes.
     
  8. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Why do we want snow now ? It's too early for anything besides ground cooling

    I am happy with rain rain rain rain and some coldish temps
     
  9. steve8113

    steve8113 First Runs

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  10. Mrstr_Chief

    Mrstr_Chief One of Us

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    Still in the order of about 30cm, the BOM not so keen though.
     
  11. steve8113

    steve8113 First Runs

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    the BOM might just be scared after last year
     
  12. slalom pete

    slalom pete Hard Yards

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    The bom always seems conservative but who can blame them after the last12 months
     
  13. main street

    main street Sun Peaks Resident

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    From what's on the charts further out, any snow from this system won't hang about for long anyway.....

    The more rain, the better at this point.
     
    #163 main street, May 28, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  14. keefy

    keefy First Runs

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    BOTH for me, we need the rain on the parched land, we need the snow to create a cold base, a few weeks ago I would have shuddered with snow falls, but as OWE is only 2 weeks away, a small base would be nice, however being selfish, as long as a decent cover of snow is on the ground by end of June...

    But in honesty surely any precipitation is good ? Snow on the Alps, rain across the rest... snow melts, water table fill, rivers run.. [​IMG]
     
    #164 keefy, May 28, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  15. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    Snow will hang about as the stuff from last week is rock solid and was not melting much at all over the weekend....check my trip report in Snow Talk.
     
  16. keefy

    keefy First Runs

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    BOM is looking optimistic, at least for NSW fields... like the aboce 1400 note ... also nice seing Spencre's creek readings occurring now [​IMG]
     
    #166 keefy, May 28, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  17. keefy

    keefy First Runs

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    BM, got it, great pic's, seems good base forming stuff :thumbs:
     
  18. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    I think that the ground has done some cooling so any snowfalls from this point should stick around for while unless we get r$#%. The high after this front will also bring some very cold temps at night so we should start to see a base form + snowmaking.
    Snow = precipitation = moisture = water = H2O = improvement on drought conditions. It will only snow above 1400 so the rest should get RAIN.
    rain or snow from this front may depend on when it hit (day or night) as there only seems to be a couple of degrees in it.
     
  19. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    for some reason i am not as impressed this morning as i was last night. something is telling me its not gonna pan out the way gfs/gasp are saying it will.
     
  20. Bugski

    Bugski A Local

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    Next system please. :sleepy:
     
  21. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    check out kierans thread in Backcountry forum.

    Charts have showed it sliding away just short of the alps for a couple of days. Hopefully this doesn't happen.
     
    #171 Snow Blowey, May 28, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    This afternoons GFS/LAPS still makes me happy.
    [​IMG]
     
    #172 Claude Cat, May 28, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  23. Mrstr_Chief

    Mrstr_Chief One of Us

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    just, no downgrades please
     
    #173 Mrstr_Chief, May 28, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  24. Mrstr_Chief

    Mrstr_Chief One of Us

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    just, no downgrades please
     
    #174 Mrstr_Chief, May 28, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  25. Kikamoocow

    Kikamoocow First Runs

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    Yawn, still way to warm in Adelaide - gonna have to take a real radical turn for the better overnight.
     
  26. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Found this nice 3hr breakdown. Not looking to bad.

    Possibly an upgrade on the way too. Since models used past data from similar patterns at this time of year. Hopefully this is one that doesn't follow long term trends.

    [​IMG]
     
  27. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks berluddy awesome SB.
     
  28. Cuppa

    Cuppa A Local

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    Vic BOM aren't too excited.

     
    #178 Cuppa, May 28, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  29. keefy

    keefy First Runs

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    Just saw that CC, now I am getting excited :woohoo:
     
  30. keefy

    keefy First Runs

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    GASP has downgraded the moisture and intensity of the system, it has it tracking a little further south... Naaa, still have a godd felleing about this one....
     
  31. slog_of_old

    slog_of_old Hard Yards

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    nup... no snow and not a lot of rain in this one. Pity.
     
  32. board freek

    board freek One of Us

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    dont be so negative
     
  33. carto

    carto First Runs

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    I don't agree Cuppa. I reckon the VIC BOM forecast has improved this arvo in terms of snow anyway.

    The afternoon forecast is using words like "snowfalls", which were not there on the early morning forecast.
     
  34. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    Pre-frontal will be an issue but not much to loose anyway. Would be good if it slows and hits us tomorrow night. NSW are predicting '3's for Tuesday let hope the air is cool enough.
    In 24 hours we will know [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
    #184 Outlooker, May 28, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tassie highlands are looking at 50-60cm on the ground by Wednesday evening... [​IMG]
     
    #185 POW_hungry, May 28, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  36. Top Rock

    Top Rock Hard Yards

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  37. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    that better come off.
     
  38. MISFIT

    MISFIT First Runs

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    ooooh yeah that looks awesome. :party:
     
  39. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    NSW BOM seem to have downgraded their PM forecast too....still hoping for a few surprises from this one!
     
  40. board freek

    board freek One of Us

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    def looks like tassie will get the better of this front
     
  41. Silence

    Silence One of Us

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    all i can say is fingers crossed.
     
  42. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    [​IMG] [​IMG] :woohoo:
     
    #192 BenLomond Iceman, May 28, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  43. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    Where is Blackheath to give us some upper atmosphere temps. That should give us a better indication of the impact in the mountains.
    I am thinking at least 30cm by Friday. [​IMG] :cheers:
     
    #193 Outlooker, May 28, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  44. Monaroq

    Monaroq First Runs

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    Damn I shoulda passed on NZ and made the trip to Taswegia. :p

    GL tassie kids!! [​IMG]
     
    #194 Monaroq, May 28, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  45. SkiMun

    SkiMun Part of the Furniture

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    This systems looks like it will peak too early to give the Alps a decent snowfall. It will be slipping SE pretty quickly as it passes. I have a feeling the charts are overestimating the amount of precipatation associated with it.

    I'd say Buller will get around 3cm out of it.

    The next system looks a bit weird. I don't buy that whole cut-off low scenario.

    Wait and see.
     
  46. keefy

    keefy First Runs

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    NSW BOM has downgraded slightly from this morning, however I think this will still suprise us, GASP is still showing less precipitation than GFS, however GASP had this in a similar view to GFS now, around 5 ~ 6 days ago. However it ain't a season starter... ~ 15 CM on higher elevations is my call.
     
  47. Ted.

    Ted. Hard Yards

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    Interesting that on a whole this system hasn't changed too dramatically from Claude Cat's first post in this forum last Monday... GFS and GASP models seem to be more stable than last year.
     
  48. keefy

    keefy First Runs

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    We just hope they converge at the right time, with the right outcome [​IMG]
     
    #198 keefy, May 28, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  49. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS for sat/ sun has settled a bit and looking more realistic.
     
  50. AUSSKY

    AUSSKY First Runs

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    Update from AusSnow this morning for the next few days....

    OVERVIEW.
    A developing active depression advances towards southeast Australia through Tuesday and is preceded by general rain across the alpine areas of southeast Australia, following this depression/trough a colder west to southwest airstream will introduce a very cold airmass with general snow through Wednesday and Thursday with snow showers persisting to early in the weekend, some heavy falls a risk. A brief period of more settled conditions Saturday and Sunday then another cold front Monday with more rain and snow.

    SNOW POTENTIAL.
    Through Monday a rather mild northerly airmass will become strong to galeforece across the alpine areas, rain and drizzle with isolated storms later Tuesday and into Wednesday with heavy rainfall totals. Colder air will be advected across southeast Australia overnight Tuesday and through Wednesday with rain turning to snow generally. Becoming much colder through Wednesday and into Thursday with general snow showers getting to near sub alpine areas at times, some heavy falls a risk especially over exposed ridges in western areas. A few snow showers through Friday then becoming cloudy with only light flurries early Saturday, briefly fine through Sunday then another cold front Monday with an increasing risk of further snow showers early next week.