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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, May 21, 2007.
Flood warnings / flood watch issued for Tassie....
It's going to be a very wet day down there....
Gasp and gfs are starting to agree by the looks of things. Too bad the system is already upon us :S Looks like some red on the 24hr chart, although i can't really tell what its over.
Interesting, I was looking at the frog's website this morning and he has forecast a good snow system from around 4th - 7th june. Its the first time I have seen him use the 'heavy snow' picture this year. Might be something to look for next week. I don't have access to models with that range though.
NSW BOM are still tossing a coin on this one, so I just asked the +1 to loan me the 4WD to take to Thredbo tomorrow, just in case. Either way, should be an interesting drive into the village late Wed arvo.
PROBABILITY OF SNOW: at 1500 m at 1900 m
Today (6am/6pm) 5% 10%
Tonight (6pm/6am) 50% 90%
Wednesday (24hr from 6am) 80% 90%
A front to the west will bring wind and rain as it approaches and crosses the
region later today. Rain will turn to snow showers in the colder stream
following the front. These snow showers will becoming isolated as the next
ridge approaches. Another front will bring further showers and snow later in
Wednesday : Showers falling as snow above 1300 metres.
Thursday : Isolated showers falling as snow above 1500 metres.
Friday : Scattered snow showers.
QUANTITATIVE RAINFALL (for Snowyhydro)
CABRAMURRA PERISHER VALLEY
Today (9am/3pm) 0 0
Tonight (3pm/9am) 3 3
Wednesday (24hr from 9am) 2 2
Thursday (24hr from 9am) 1 1
It is like a return of the Ice Age for the rest of this week.
1060hpa high pressure systems and sub 5200m thickness.
Bob, where are you pulling those figures from?
Yea tell me about it, it is going to be 2 deg in sydneys west on friday morn. Few days out, but still. Could even get some frost.
You don't wanna know...
im not seeing it... i see ~1030s about the highest it gets for the next 7days
Did I mention I'm heading into the WoJ? Right over where that dumping is. Might leave the trip until sunday. Won't get far if that dumping happens.
Tas BOM still not crazy about this system, though as as been mentioned they seem to be taking a more conservative approach after last year.
It's coming... I was so wrong about the start of the season, it's looking better by the day, may even venture down on OWE...
BOM may be a little undecided, my money is on 10 ~ 15 Overnight tomorrow, down to around 1700, wet snow below that.
Not sure I see sub 5400 near the mainland ATM, be nice though
I think I disagree with the 5400 dropping south and the high building as per GFS, however long cold nights are good also, rather see natural snow than using water supplies for Snow making though, my money's on GASP on this one, with the 5400 a little further north.
Outlook is starting to look really good, fingers X'd
ECMWF +120 hours.
You think I am making it up Ski Mun?
Kinda hope it doesn't come off cause a high that high whould be parked there for weeks!!
I think that Chart has been smoking some of the good stuff
Not wrong... but, but...
If this is fact then no problem with the Snowline being low enough
so, how much would guys think NSW will get?
That chart looks like it's been Hammo'd...
talked about for years if that happens
That chart is out of date (issued yesterday?) and clearly has quality assurance issues. A more recent forecast doesn't look anything like it.
It's ok to dream sometimes.
the amount of snow i would make if that came off...
Pressures good (better than what is progged) and precip is'nt too bad. But I am not too sure the temps are ideal. Cool over SE South Australia but uppers are'nt anything to write home about.
Weekend is looking great for snowmaking.
unbelievable buildup of moisture in the past hour. too warm for my liking though.
looks like a decent rainfall though, bring it on
Yeah very nice, was a bit worried till I saw this.
Wish we were copping what Tassie will be copping, maybe next time... looking forward to the rain
There would be some serious southerlies if that came off
im more impressed with the statewide radar.
That chart is Bolshite. It simply can't be correct. Look how insanely far below the 520 line Victoria is! Melbourne would be covered in snow, Hobart would be frozen solid and the snow would even reach the mountains in Southern Queensland.
I think people are getting carried away. This front and thursday's won't produce much more than 10cm altogether, locally a bit more.
I think we all agree that chart I posted was wayyyy off, interesting though.
So warm here in Canberra, doesn't feel right.
Top of Thredbo is +6, pressure is plumiting though.
Guess it is on its way.
OMFG, the wind is gusting over 145kmh on Hotham.
Hope the lifts and buildings survive the beating.
I think it was a couple of years ago when there were 200km/h gusts at Hotham.
I had the joyful task of helping with Buller's clean-up following cyclonic conditions during 05 season...
Was loading tin sheets from totalled roofs onto my kat for 2 days...
I think Buller's AWS topped 170km/h that time round.
mmmm Rain on Yarrawonga's radar looks like fun...
Thredbo's AWS recorded 146 kph within last hour or so. Bar 1013 and dropping.
Just had a look at VIC observations on BOM - you can see the cold air being in the west where Ballarat is on 11, and in the centre / east Bairnsdale is on 24 and Baw Baw 8.9 only 2 less than Ballarat. Quite a rain band moving through. Can see temp differences happening in NSW as well.
A nice line of yellow on the leading edge of the rain.
Absolutely teaming here in Wangaratta. Windy as anything!
BOM Vic Alpine Forecast.
Yup, the night of 30th August 2005 - gusts of 198 km/h. I was in Falls Creek earlier and everything was on wind hold, then that night I went to Melbourne by bus - scariest bus trip I've ever been on. The wind and rain were crazy, debris flying every which way, and several (large) trees down blocking the road. It's lucky that no cars got squashed by falling trees I reckon. Falls was closed the next day too, but on the upside it did bring a bit of snow (and to low levels).
This front's going to be interesting - the rain will be very welcome I'm sure; fingers crossed for a bit of snow too!
Sounds like bom think there will not be much moisture once the cold hits.
This afternoons LAPS is nice however it's hard to get a feeling of how much moisture there is after the 540 line / cold change.
Possibility of 10 to 30 by LAP's reckoning... but I too am not holding my breath, looking at the Radar, the rain bands are moving quickly, but if it were to satll a tad ????
Latest sat images look nice - the feed from the south / speckled cloud is impressive.
whens it gonna start cooling down hothams had at least 2.5mm precip in the last hour and the temps comfortably sitting at 6+
wait im wrong
way too warm. melbourne misses out on rain again.
have things really changed?
They should put a circle around melbourne on every map to indicate 'no rainfall' fkn bullsh1t
if you're concerned about drought conditions and rainfall to improve said conditions then melbourne isnt the best place to get a dump anyway
looks like large parts of vic have received 10-20mm already (showers to follow)
No kidding, it'd be nice to see some steady rainfall here for once though.
ADL has struggled to get above 15C today and 5mm in the gauge with frequent heavy showers persisting. The wee hours of the morning look like the drop in temp.
I think 10cm is likely tomorrow.
true it would be nice for the sake of the gardens
agreed POW. Once i got over my immense frustration at melbourne not getting any rain there is a nice southerly feed pumping a good amount of moisture into the showers you speak of. Now travelling is a more conventional westerly flow, i think they will benefit all resorts tomorrow.
It is cold outside in the SE subs of melbourne, but nowhere near cold enough to snow.
when i say melbourne i really mean the east of melbourne where all our catchments are.