30 May System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, May 21, 2007.

  1. main street

    main street Sun Peaks Resident

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2006
    Messages:
    70,475
    Likes Received:
    4,387
    Location:
    Sun Peaks, British Columbia
    Flood warnings / flood watch issued for Tassie....

    It's going to be a very wet day down there....
     
  2. Gimble

    Gimble First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 1, 2006
    Messages:
    287
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Newcastle
    Gasp and gfs are starting to agree by the looks of things. Too bad the system is already upon us :S Looks like some red on the 24hr chart, although i can't really tell what its over.

    Interesting, I was looking at the frog's website this morning and he has forecast a good snow system from around 4th - 7th june. Its the first time I have seen him use the 'heavy snow' picture this year. Might be something to look for next week. I don't have access to models with that range though.
     
  3. Mangoes

    Mangoes First Runs

    Joined:
    May 9, 2002
    Messages:
    646
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    4 hours from Thredbo
    NSW BOM are still tossing a coin on this one, so I just asked the +1 to loan me the 4WD to take to Thredbo tomorrow, just in case. Either way, should be an interesting drive into the village late Wed arvo.

    PROBABILITY OF SNOW: at 1500 m at 1900 m
    Today (6am/6pm) 5% 10%
    Tonight (6pm/6am) 50% 90%
    Wednesday (24hr from 6am) 80% 90%

    Comments:
    A front to the west will bring wind and rain as it approaches and crosses the
    region later today. Rain will turn to snow showers in the colder stream
    following the front. These snow showers will becoming isolated as the next
    ridge approaches. Another front will bring further showers and snow later in
    the week.

    OUTLOOKS:
    Wednesday : Showers falling as snow above 1300 metres.
    Thursday : Isolated showers falling as snow above 1500 metres.
    Friday : Scattered snow showers.

    QUANTITATIVE RAINFALL (for Snowyhydro)
    CABRAMURRA PERISHER VALLEY
    Today (9am/3pm) 0 0
    Tonight (3pm/9am) 3 3
    Wednesday (24hr from 9am) 2 2
    Thursday (24hr from 9am) 1 1
     
  4. FatBob

    FatBob Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 28, 2001
    Messages:
    419
    Likes Received:
    4
    Location:
    Canberra
    It is like a return of the Ice Age for the rest of this week.

    1060hpa high pressure systems and sub 5200m thickness. [​IMG]
     
    #204 FatBob, May 29, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  5. hailtobuang

    hailtobuang First Runs

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2004
    Messages:
    416
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    melb
    Bob, where are you pulling those figures from?
     
  6. Mrstr_Chief

    Mrstr_Chief One of Us

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2004
    Messages:
    1,442
    Likes Received:
    8
    Location:
    Sydney
    Yea tell me about it, it is going to be 2 deg in sydneys west on friday morn. Few days out, but still. Could even get some frost.
     
    #206 Mrstr_Chief, May 29, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  7. SkiMun

    SkiMun Part of the Furniture

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    17,611
    Likes Received:
    442
    Location:
    Melbourne
    You don't wanna know... [​IMG]
     
    #207 SkiMun, May 29, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  8. chappy

    chappy Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 29, 2007
    Messages:
    18
    Likes Received:
    3
    Location:
    Melbourne
    im not seeing it... i see ~1030s about the highest it gets for the next 7days
     
  9. Malkatraz

    Malkatraz First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2005
    Messages:
    120
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    North-West Tassie
    Did I mention I'm heading into the WoJ? Right over where that dumping is. [​IMG] Might leave the trip until sunday. Won't get far if that dumping happens.

    Tas BOM still not crazy about this system, though as as been mentioned they seem to be taking a more conservative approach after last year.
     
    #209 Malkatraz, May 29, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  10. keefy

    keefy First Runs

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2003
    Messages:
    1,131
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Sydney
    It's coming... I was so wrong about the start of the season, it's looking better by the day, may even venture down on OWE...

    BOM may be a little undecided, my money is on 10 ~ 15 Overnight tomorrow, down to around 1700, wet snow below that.

    Not sure I see sub 5400 near the mainland ATM, be nice though [​IMG]

    I think I disagree with the 5400 dropping south and the high building as per GFS, however long cold nights are good also, rather see natural snow than using water supplies for Snow making though, my money's on GASP on this one, with the 5400 a little further north. :thumbs:

    Outlook is starting to look really good, fingers X'd
     
    #210 keefy, May 29, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  11. FatBob

    FatBob Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 28, 2001
    Messages:
    419
    Likes Received:
    4
    Location:
    Canberra
    ECMWF +120 hours.

    You think I am making it up Ski Mun?

    [​IMG]

    Looks COLD.

    Kinda hope it doesn't come off cause a high that high whould be parked there for weeks!!
     
    #211 FatBob, May 29, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  12. Bato

    Bato One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2005
    Messages:
    3,195
    Likes Received:
    699
    Location:
    Davos/Jindabyne/Brunswick Heads
    I think that Chart has been smoking some of the good stuff
     
  13. keefy

    keefy First Runs

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2003
    Messages:
    1,131
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Sydney
    Not wrong... but, but...

    If this is fact then no problem with the Snowline being low enough [​IMG]
     
    #213 keefy, May 29, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  14. Toddo

    Toddo One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 2002
    Messages:
    2,311
    Likes Received:
    3
    so, how much would guys think NSW will get?
     
  15. sir_rhyso

    sir_rhyso One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2004
    Messages:
    1,227
    Likes Received:
    8
    Location:
    Niseko / Hotham
    That chart looks like it's been Hammo'd...
     
  16. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 2000
    Messages:
    15,104
    Likes Received:
    593
    Location:
    Space..traveling through the vast non emptiness
    talked about for years if that happens
     
  17. SkiMun

    SkiMun Part of the Furniture

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    17,611
    Likes Received:
    442
    Location:
    Melbourne
    That chart is out of date (issued yesterday?) and clearly has quality assurance issues. A more recent forecast doesn't look anything like it.
     
    #217 SkiMun, May 29, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  18. hailtobuang

    hailtobuang First Runs

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2004
    Messages:
    416
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    melb
    It's ok to dream sometimes.
     
  19. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    71,670
    Likes Received:
    26,132
    Location:
    Cranhole, Melbourne, VIC
    the amount of snow i would make if that came off...
     
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,246
    Likes Received:
    22,553
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Pressures good (better than what is progged) and precip is'nt too bad. But I am not too sure the temps are ideal. Cool over SE South Australia but uppers are'nt anything to write home about.

    Weekend is looking great for snowmaking.
     
  21. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    71,670
    Likes Received:
    26,132
    Location:
    Cranhole, Melbourne, VIC
    unbelievable buildup of moisture in the past hour. too warm for my liking though.

    looks like a decent rainfall though, bring it on [​IMG]
     
    #221 Vermillion, May 29, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  22. iSki

    iSki First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2003
    Messages:
    2,497
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Yeah very nice, was a bit worried till I saw this.

    [​IMG]

    Wish we were copping what Tassie will be copping, maybe next time... looking forward to the rain
     
  23. Gimble

    Gimble First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 1, 2006
    Messages:
    287
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Newcastle
    There would be some serious southerlies if that came off [​IMG]
     
    #223 Gimble, May 29, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  24. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    71,670
    Likes Received:
    26,132
    Location:
    Cranhole, Melbourne, VIC
    im more impressed with the statewide radar.
     
  25. Zyka

    Zyka First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2006
    Messages:
    234
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne
    That chart is Bolshite. It simply can't be correct. Look how insanely far below the 520 line Victoria is! Melbourne would be covered in snow, Hobart would be frozen solid and the snow would even reach the mountains in Southern Queensland.
     
  26. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    71,670
    Likes Received:
    26,132
    Location:
    Cranhole, Melbourne, VIC
  27. Squidly

    Squidly One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2004
    Messages:
    1,963
    Likes Received:
    42
    Location:
    TAS
    I think people are getting carried away. This front and thursday's won't produce much more than 10cm altogether, locally a bit more.
     
  28. FatBob

    FatBob Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 28, 2001
    Messages:
    419
    Likes Received:
    4
    Location:
    Canberra
    I think we all agree that chart I posted was wayyyy off, interesting though.

    So warm here in Canberra, doesn't feel right.

    Top of Thredbo is +6, pressure is plumiting though.

    Guess it is on its way.
     
  29. Zyka

    Zyka First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2006
    Messages:
    234
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne
    OMFG, the wind is gusting over 145kmh on Hotham.
    Hope the lifts and buildings survive the beating.
     
  30. Tasnow

    Tasnow First Runs

    Joined:
    Apr 30, 2004
    Messages:
    155
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne
    I think it was a couple of years ago when there were 200km/h gusts at Hotham.
     
  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,246
    Likes Received:
    22,553
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    I had the joyful task of helping with Buller's clean-up following cyclonic conditions during 05 season...
    Was loading tin sheets from totalled roofs onto my kat for 2 days... :rolleyes:
    I think Buller's AWS topped 170km/h that time round.

    mmmm Rain on Yarrawonga's radar looks like fun... [​IMG]
     
    #231 POW_hungry, May 29, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  32. adminvb

    adminvb First Runs

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2013
    Messages:
    0
    Likes Received:
    3
    Thredbo's AWS recorded 146 kph within last hour or so. Bar 1013 and dropping.
     
  33. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 2000
    Messages:
    15,104
    Likes Received:
    593
    Location:
    Space..traveling through the vast non emptiness
    Just had a look at VIC observations on BOM - you can see the cold air being in the west where Ballarat is on 11, and in the centre / east Bairnsdale is on 24 and Baw Baw 8.9 only 2 less than Ballarat. Quite a rain band moving through. Can see temp differences happening in NSW as well.
     
  34. Cuppa

    Cuppa A Local

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2000
    Messages:
    8,128
    Likes Received:
    710
    A nice line of yellow on the leading edge of the rain.

    [​IMG]
     
  35. Wodonga Josh

    Wodonga Josh Part of the Furniture

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2003
    Messages:
    17,002
    Likes Received:
    1,322
    Location:
    North East Victoria
    Absolutely teaming here in Wangaratta. Windy as anything!
     
  36. Cuppa

    Cuppa A Local

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2000
    Messages:
    8,128
    Likes Received:
    710
    BOM Vic Alpine Forecast.

     
    #236 Cuppa, May 29, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  37. Recon

    Recon Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Apr 26, 2005
    Messages:
    751
    Likes Received:
    0
    Yup, the night of 30th August 2005 - gusts of 198 km/h. I was in Falls Creek earlier and everything was on wind hold, then that night I went to Melbourne by bus - scariest bus trip I've ever been on. The wind and rain were crazy, debris flying every which way, and several (large) trees down blocking the road. It's lucky that no cars got squashed by falling trees I reckon. Falls was closed the next day too, but on the upside it did bring a bit of snow (and to low levels).

    This front's going to be interesting - the rain will be very welcome I'm sure; fingers crossed for a bit of snow too!
     
    #237 Recon, May 29, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    114,289
    Likes Received:
    51,524
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Sounds like bom think there will not be much moisture once the cold hits.
    This afternoons LAPS is nice however it's hard to get a feeling of how much moisture there is after the 540 line / cold change.

    [​IMG]
     
    #238 Claude Cat, May 29, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  39. keefy

    keefy First Runs

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2003
    Messages:
    1,131
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Sydney
    Possibility of 10 to 30 by LAP's reckoning... but I too am not holding my breath, looking at the Radar, the rain bands are moving quickly, but if it were to satll a tad ????
     
  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    114,289
    Likes Received:
    51,524
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Latest sat images look nice - the feed from the south / speckled cloud is impressive.
    [​IMG]
     
    #240 Claude Cat, May 29, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  41. board freek

    board freek One of Us

    Joined:
    May 28, 2005
    Messages:
    1,173
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Eastern Suburbs Melbourne
    whens it gonna start cooling down hothams had at least 2.5mm precip in the last hour and the temps comfortably sitting at 6+
     
  42. board freek

    board freek One of Us

    Joined:
    May 28, 2005
    Messages:
    1,173
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Eastern Suburbs Melbourne
    wait im wrong
     
  43. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    71,670
    Likes Received:
    26,132
    Location:
    Cranhole, Melbourne, VIC
    way too warm. melbourne misses out on rain again.

    have things really changed?
     
  44. iSki

    iSki First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2003
    Messages:
    2,497
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne
    They should put a circle around melbourne on every map to indicate 'no rainfall' fkn bullsh1t
     
  45. chappy

    chappy Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 29, 2007
    Messages:
    18
    Likes Received:
    3
    Location:
    Melbourne
    if you're concerned about drought conditions and rainfall to improve said conditions then melbourne isnt the best place to get a dump anyway

    looks like large parts of vic have received 10-20mm already (showers to follow)
     
  46. iSki

    iSki First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2003
    Messages:
    2,497
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne
    No kidding, it'd be nice to see some steady rainfall here for once though.
     
    #246 iSki, May 29, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,246
    Likes Received:
    22,553
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    ADL has struggled to get above 15C today and 5mm in the gauge with frequent heavy showers persisting. The wee hours of the morning look like the drop in temp.
    I think 10cm is likely tomorrow.
     
  48. chappy

    chappy Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 29, 2007
    Messages:
    18
    Likes Received:
    3
    Location:
    Melbourne
    true it would be nice for the sake of the gardens
     
  49. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    71,670
    Likes Received:
    26,132
    Location:
    Cranhole, Melbourne, VIC
    agreed POW. Once i got over my immense frustration at melbourne not getting any rain there is a nice southerly feed pumping a good amount of moisture into the showers you speak of. Now travelling is a more conventional westerly flow, i think they will benefit all resorts tomorrow.

    It is cold outside in the SE subs of melbourne, but nowhere near cold enough to snow.
     
  50. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    71,670
    Likes Received:
    26,132
    Location:
    Cranhole, Melbourne, VIC
    when i say melbourne i really mean the east of melbourne where all our catchments are.
     
    #250 Vermillion, May 29, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013