Predictions 30th Jun - 2nd Jul System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Jun 22, 2016.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Our next potential front is progged pass the Alps next Friday. GFS says a similar SW flow to this Friday's feature yet pressure looks marginal.
    GFS says plenty of moisture and temps look to be 'ok', at best, this far out. Uppers pretty avg.
    EC ...Meh.

    Models will have a better idea after Saturday's done with IMO.
    WZ loves it (?).
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  2. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Another season of weekend systems? Let's hope.
     
  3. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Unlikely, nodes aren't regular enough.
     
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  4. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    wow such insight for a dawg !!
     
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Something there, but again doesn't look overly strong at this stage IMO

    GFS


    EC

     
  6. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I reckon this one is going to be ridged out looking at those runs.
     
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  7. Nowada

    Nowada Addicted

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    Access G and EC/yr.no like it for another small top up. Temps look OK from 1600m up NSW a bit lower for Vic. Better than nothing, but still its a long time away to flip and flop.
     
  8. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

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    [​IMG]

    Now this looks promising albeit a distant glimmer in the mind's eye.
     
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  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looking stronger on this afternoon's GFS run.

    [​IMG]
     
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  10. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pressure looks a little high, but too far out to say much at the moment.

    Strong node about 10oclock picks this up:
    [​IMG]
     
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  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Warm SST's in the Tasman and the Pacific look to be throwing things a bit... EC & GFS has some huge ECL's progged for next week both at varying stages. Very ECL-hot at the moment.
     
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC this afternoon

    [​IMG]

    Starting to firm up.
     
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Half in... Tempted.
    See our old-mate ECL in the Tasman... #EClovesit
     
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  14. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    You, or EC? ;)
    Hmm, pressure could be a bit lower there....
     
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  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yeh, ECL will mess with it for a bit, I suspect.
     
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  16. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    As I said two weeks ago about this current system, " Where there's smoke there's fire ". Bring on the roller coaster Olympic year.
     
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  17. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Seems we've entered an extended period of an amplified long wave trough pattern - like
     
  18. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    This makes me a little nervous.
     
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    You wouldn't want that low to be further north IMO.
     
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  20. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I dont really like where it is now.
     
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I think it's ok - just. I'm not seeing a lot of moisture right at the moment.

    IMO
     
  22. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    Its cold though thats good
     
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  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The fact that both GFS & EC are flaunting it gives it hope. Temps look 'ok', moisture looks avg and pressure needs work.
    50/50 this far out, but I will say both models are going for TWO bombing lows in the Tasman (Sat/Sun followed by potentially Tues)... So there are some large variables in the way between now and next Friday.
     
  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wow, GFS going all-in for a double-banger cold outbreak next Friday-Saturday. Position looks perfect if it landed as is.
    EC not so much, but think I the 00z will bring back some biff.
    Worthy of a watch IMO.
    GFS
    [​IMG]

    EC
    [​IMG]
     
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  25. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    And GFS has another low situated in the Bight on the 4th at this stage.
     
  26. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    How convenient that I've got the 1st off for my B'day.

    Watching intently.....
     
  27. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    2nd is a Saturday.
     
  28. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    edited. long weekend. Watch and wait but maybe Stirling bro...
     
  29. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Access is on board the cut off train for the 1st.
    Really can't be ****ed uploading to photobucket on the phone to post on here. So if anyone want's to see the chart they can look of WZ themselves.
     
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    haha.
    Here you go petal.
    [​IMG]
     
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  31. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    bro, I've seen it... Ain't any difference to me. But I'm sure others are thankful for generosity of time and effort.

    *minimal time and effort I know, but I just couldn't be effed...
     
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  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I know. Just helping the forum out.;)
     
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  33. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Spag Ensemble hinting at the Cut off/wandering cold pool scenario that gets warm pretty quickly.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  34. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    To be honest, with such a massive double whack of systems due tonight and tomorrow, I cant put too much trust into anything the models are progging for this period.
     
  35. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    yeah true. lots of energy in this system, could throw the balls in the air for a few days you think? I seem to recall the original "Snowmaggeddon" system of 2014 kinda wrecked the high pressure belt for a week or so allowing for subsequent follow ups before it finally settled again. You think we're getting a similar sort of scenario currently?
     
  36. Nowada

    Nowada Addicted

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    All models are liking this system for 5 to 10 cents. Very unusual for 8 to10 days out.
     
  37. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I dont really like to compare any system to a previous system, as you end up looking for things that arent there instead of what actually is there. I dont think the high pressure belt will be more disrupted than it currently is, because the Rossby Waves are in a settled unsettled progression at the moment (if that makes sense). I think it'll continue for at least the next 10 days. I just think things like lingering moisture, positioning and pressure get swept up in bigger systems and affect the NWP inputs until they've cleared off.

    It's a bit like sitting in your car while the rain pours down with the windscreen wipers not working. You can kinda see the clouds ahead and the next front, but you cant see it clearly. When the rain from the current shower stops and you use the wipers, you can see the next one coming through clearly. Meh ok I had a go at an analogy.
     
  38. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    thanks bro. I get what you're saying.
     
  39. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Understanding the propagation of these Rosby waves is imperative to forecasting weather over the entire globe. Blah Blah
    [​IMG]
     
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  40. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Helloooooooo Chile.
     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looking more and more ridged out as previously speculated.

    [​IMG]
     
  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC it's certainly ridging away

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  43. Philski1961

    Philski1961 Hard Yards

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    Looking pretty good again on the latest model runs.
     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Which ones?
     
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  45. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS indicating something around 4th/5th followed in quick succession by another around the 7th. All good fun to watch develop or disappear.
     
  46. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS is really keen on the 30th/1st system this morning. No ridging from the high but another ecl to form. 4th/5th gone.
     
  47. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sort of back on EC also.
    [​IMG]
     
  48. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Access G aligned with GFS with the cut off/ECL scenario.
     
  49. Philski1961

    Philski1961 Hard Yards

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    GFS looks a cracker this morning. Models are not aligning well though so will change.
     
  50. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Care to expand?
    I feel like there's some reasonable alignment between GFS and Access. Both hinting pointing at a cut off going to ecl type scenario. EC different. I could be reading this wrong though?

    Jane is on board with it at this early stage.
    http://www.janesweather.com/snow-forecast