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Predictions 30th Jun - 2nd Jul System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Jun 22, 2016.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS certainly does like it this morning.



    And EC is better than yesterday, although a fair way short of GFS
    [​IMG]

    IMO
     
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  2. Marquise de Kappy

    Marquise de Kappy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    To my uneducated eye, next Friday looks a lot like this system?
     
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  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS looks that way.
     
  4. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    twopeat !
     
  5. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

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    GFS and AXS just about in alignment 7 days out, signs of a strong system.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  6. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lots of potential there for sure.
    Lets see what happens once the current system does its thing and moves on before anything is locked in.

    Solid follow up if the above charts come off though.
     
  7. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    If it does pan out as above that will make 3 ecls for the last 3 fortnight weekends. If that makes sense. o_O
     
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  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    This system is still evolving.
    GFS 00Z run

     
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC more and more interested. This could happen IMO

     
  10. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Did I not say it was my birthday???
     
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  11. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Dont mind what I am seeing at this point , not quite ready to jump on the bandwagon , maybe tomorrow.
     
  12. xuěboarder

    xuěboarder One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Any weather experts to take a stab at saturday the 2nd conditions for buller? Will be my first available day.
    Not sure if its too far out..
     
  13. Jeffb

    Jeffb Hard Yards

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  14. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Plenty of potential still.
    But I still would like to see the charts once the current system is gone.
     
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  15. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still looks ok at the moment. Not huge but plenty cold enough. IMO
     
  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC suggesting good enough for 20-30cm
    IMO
     
  17. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Jane used the term "fizzes out" before reaching us tonight on the news. Made me laugh more than anything because she's using forum language.

    Sorry for OT.
     
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  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    It does look quick. 12 hours and done on GFS
    IMO
     
  19. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

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    Mine on the 30th, day off to watch!
     
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS shows in the range of 10-25
    [​IMG]
     
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS turning a bit more "wandering cold pool-ish" today

    EC not too bad.


    I'd prefer if that low was a bit further south IMO
     
  22. Philski1961

    Philski1961 Hard Yards

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    Possible follow up on the fourth to watch as well. This system MAY set things up for the next one.
     
  23. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    ECMWF looks pretty dam good.]

    This has been a consistent forecast for almost a week now.
     
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  24. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I bought my ticket , I'm onboard now. Fast moving so maybe 10 - 20 cms. If something could put the brakes on this it might give us more.
     
  25. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Looks like a nice little follow up top up system to freshen things up.

    Agreed @Kelpieboy looking at around 10-20 ish mark

    Again, nice and cold so temps don't look to be too much of a problem
     
  26. Jeffb

    Jeffb Hard Yards

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    [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG]

    another breaking r/wave :)
     
  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Latest EC



    Still look good for 20 to 30cm above 1500m. Could be lower in the right places IMO.
     
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  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Pretty good alignment with GFS this afternoon.
     
  29. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Moisture looks ok to me.
     
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  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I wonder what the record of ECL's in the month of June is?! 3 in the last week has me guessing it must be up there.
    I personally love the collective progression of AXS, GFS & EC. Looks aligned to me.
    15-25cm for Friday IMO.
     
  31. cin

    cin Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Quick 20cm then some clear cool nights perfect for the guns, IMO
    Just what we need at this point of the season
     
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  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It does look very good for snow making beyond next weekend.
     
  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sorry mate, just saw this^^^. It'll be 3 in a week. 4 in the fortnight.
     
  34. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    June 2007 (Think Pasha Bulka) we had those 3 big ECL's in a row but not sure about the record.....
     
  35. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    But do you count lows that just end up in the Tasman and move away in a normal easterly progression as ECLs? Isn't the definition of an ECL as a low that forms close to the coast then tracks along it like the one last weekend and the one two weeks before that?
    Anyway, if my definition is right then I'm wrong about this system in my post above because it looks like that it will be a short, sharp system that moves away quickly in a normal west east progression.
    4th looks interesting too atm.
     
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  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Fair call, still a very active Tasman sea IMO.
    GFS really going for it, and suggests it hangs longer than EC. Cut off cold pool nonetheless between the two models.
    AXS a little whack, a bit 'roguey' for my liking.
    [​IMG]
     
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  37. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    If that sticks, we'll be in for another repeat of the Thursday/Friday system!
     
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  38. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    That low is actually better positioned than the last system IMO, just nowhere near as deep. Chances of a hit and run mission to Mt Stirling increasing by the day.
     
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  39. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Agreed. Pretty much smack bang over Tassie is where you want the centre to be sitting.....and stalling preferably
     
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  40. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    4 dayer
    ****in ey
     
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  41. Jeffb

    Jeffb Hard Yards

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    Models are sticking staunch on this next big chill. [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
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  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Seems to be swinging more in-line with AXS. I think EC might come on board in the next run or two for a more sustained system.

    I really like the snow-making potential from next weekend on-wards. That said I don't particularly like what GFS it's painting after Tuesday week... Looks troughey and warm. I might erase that from my mind, for now.
     
  44. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer One of Us

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    Mountainwatch saying 31cm(Perisher)
     
  45. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking good for a quick burst of snow above 1300 I.M.O. Maybe 25-35
     
  46. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    NSW BOM going for possible snow on the CT's, Monday 900 M and Thursday 1200 M
     
  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC this afternoon

    [​IMG]

    I much prefer the location of the low here, but it's not a deep system.
     
  48. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, pressure's a bit meh.
     
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  49. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Still looks fast moving , maybe 12 -18 hour window.
     
  50. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still looks a good average 20-30 type system.