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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Jun 22, 2016.
Still needs a day or so for a real handle on it.
Hi-res has the low to the SW and much deeper.
Is this going to be 1st drop , we could call it 'Ponts' or 'Ricki your so fin you blow my mind' ? Hey ricky?'
Still there am runs, albeit a touch more 'ridgey'
15 now if I based predictions on GFS daily....
BOM 4-dayer falling into line. I still like it for 15-25cm. Perisher/NSW resorts to get the upper scale of that. EC backed off a touch more.
Maybe a touch of pre-frontal rain arriving Thursday night with the trough ahead of the front. Game on from 10-11pm Thursday IMO. Over by Friday midday.
Rosberg waves still looking good for a few dumps.
Ordinarily you'd be skeptical at a 1030hpa high getting pushed out of the way like that, but there just isnt any heat in the continent at the moment (where's PG now with his we're melting press releases?) and it just gets swept aside.
11 height shades in the lapse is suggesting this will be another cold howler.
I'd like that 546 line further north.
Don't think the BOM 4 dayer looks as good as yesterdays. Quite a drop off.
Agree. Ridged as ****. Meh.
Weaker again on 00Z GFS
Officially a "clipper" now?
GFS forecasting two events in the period. ACCESS R still to upload. Both events have a 534 cross. Solid clippers.
Sunday event is covered in the June 4 system thread.
Perhaps my skepticism was warranted after all?
It's looked highly likely since it popped up. The models have never been fully certain about this one.
Whats the verdict on winds for buller on Thursday and friday? Dont know enough to read myself and im trying to plan a trip
This thursday & friday?
Thursday looks windy
Friday easing off in the afternoon.
Will it make buller unskiable or just inconvenient?
Hard to say. A bit unpleasant on Thursday IMO. But don't quote me on that! It usually takes a fair bit to close Buller.
Thanks CC, appreciate it.
Slip slidin, away
Noooo. (I'm sliding myself Friday).
Oh no. Was planning to get down to P but might hold off.
...Like it was never there on GFS!
That broad E-W fetch across the bight will keep the surfers on the Surf coast happy. Good peak periods anyway.
yr no is still bullish right through to the 7th.
looks good on the latest ACCESS G
Still hope, 3 to 4 days away yet and we all know how quickly it can change.
This is going to deliver much more than last Friday.
"Oh Mickey take me by the hand"
Looks weaker again on 06 (as does the following system) GFS
obs or prediction thread ? just saying is all
Perhaps a little better on this morning's runs
Some of the current forecasts are undercooking the totals I reckon.
For me I reckon we could be looking at a good 20-30cm by the end of Friday (there's still another 12 hours of precip after this chart).
It's a matter of is it going to be cold enough.
BOM NSW Snowy Mountains and MetEye for Thredbo are still fairly confident of snow for Thursday and Friday.
benlomond will do ok out of this . maybe 10-15 cm Thursday & overnight into early friday
I think it will be def cold enough. It's a touch colder than last Tuesday/Wednesday's event. Snow down to 1600m initially, getting lower through event.
From a quick whip round the charts and a look on yeah nah I reckon Thursday To Friday midday ok for 15-25 cm above 1600m.
Should set up the weekend nicely after a few more nights of snowmaking IMO
Looks plenty cold enough on Access R.
if the prefrontal keeps it together it could be lots of snow in a short amount of time.
GFS likes too and suggest the prefrontal will fall as snow.
While 500m Geopotential isn't great
But it does seem cold enough
Could still do ok. I'm not seeing 30cm, but 20cm is possible IMO
Got to keep in mind that the atmosphere remains cold from the last system with no real chance to heat up in between, so what would have otherwise been too warm (looking at 850 and 500hpa), or borderline, will probably be cold enough at resort level Imo.
Time to weigh in. Looks like moisture from Thurday Lunchtime to late Friday. Coldpool lagging only slightly, so maybe a touch of pre-frontal. But not much.
I'm calling up to 30cm for Vic, and up to 25cm for NSW.
Partly cloudy and slight possiiblity of small amount of moisture on weekend.
OH BTW. Forecast provided with a little extra Mint.
Im naming it First drop
Access R update is having the coldest pool hook over the ALPS. Thats why it will deliver.
no more talk about mt canobolas I hope.Sorry OzBC
Better than 3rd Flop.
Still looking good on 00Z GFS
I say lock it in.