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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Jun 22, 2016.
Moves through pretty fast. Its going to get windy (Thursday night/Friday morning)
I'm interested in this again... This will be ultra last minute decision making...
wind is good. wind blows a heap more than the 20cm that will fall into any NE-SE facing bowls... One in particular that I have in mind.
Well it's certainly bloody cold in Perth as this one comes through. Short and sharp though.
Still good for 30cm across NSW for me..
Interestingly, GFS is playing down the moisture content.
Yeah lets hope 3-day wins out, it did last week.
Has everyone been spoiled by last weeks early burst of winter. I still think with 850's at -2 and this much moisture we will get a nice little top up for the weekend.
BOM has upped Falls Creek to 30mm on Thursday with a max of -1. Sounds ok to me.
IMO 20cm feels about right. Some spots might get a little more and others a little less.
Seems to turn Westerly as the precipitation moves through, so Buller might struggle a little.
BOM thinking NSW CT's possibly 1000M on Friday
BOM definitely liking the cold air heading over the OzzyAlps.
Even through this is a smaller system than last Friday. It will target the higher mountains as opposed to all all the lower ranges like last week.
This time last year we would have been jumping for joy with a forecast of 20cm. Perisher was 11.4c
Yeah thats a pretty bullish prediction by the BOM.
"Areas of morning fog. Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of rain. Snow falling above 1000 metres. Winds northerly 25 to 35 km/h turning west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the afternoon and evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 1 and 5 with daytime temperatures reaching between 5 and 10."
540 line will be pushing up into NSW.
When they forecast a Max of 10 for Wang with rain it can't be all bad.
I am not sure why, but BOM forecast for "Falls Creek", is in fact a cut/paste from the NE area HERE. Seems the precip & temps are relevant but not sure why they tailor a scripted forecast for Buller/Hotham and then cut/paste for Falls.
That said I think their area forecast & snow level is pretty accurate based on the current AXS & GFS models.
Still looks ok to me. Something's ironed out the creases in the models since yesterday and I'll hazard a guess and say it's likely the data inputs for the 20-year-old records broken yesterday in NSW & VIC...
EC 'aint all in but BOM pumps it's tires in replace of. I think one could expect EC to jump back on board tomorrow.
I am still in for 15-25cm. GFS doesn't seem too worried about temp or precip on this one (500hpa @ -32), just doesn't like it sticking around for long.
I originally said 10-20 for this as I thought it was fast moving. I still think its fast moving but gunna up my prediction slightly to 15 -25.
Sky weather calling 35 at Buller , 40 at Falls/Hotham and 35 for PV and Thredbo for 7 day totals.
Perhaps it would be different if there was a couple of 9000 ft peaks near by.
Need a tectonic uplift.
If only the 433mm of precip in Perisher this month was all snow - that'd make a 4 metre base!
I'm thinking Selwyn might be the surprise winner along with Perisher. Both 25cm.
Is this the '2nd drop' Ricki or Als? Bords or Slats?
Warner ... won't be there for long
GFS and AXS really staying with it this morning.
EC 12z liking it a fraction more, pressure looks mediocre though. Looking more and more like a run of the mill kinda system for end of June, IMO. @15-25cm to-up, we'll take it!
Yep with the snow on the ground and some great snow making this is looking like a tasty little follow up. Again as per above and my call yesterday I think 15-20cm is nearly a lock now.
Should snow @800m/ -4c @700mb
Surely you mean Watto...short, sharp with a predictable end.
Um yes ! The Watto it is , spotted dog.
But stay on topic , or go eat a bone.
Agree Jeffb, when it's at its coldest.
Its gonna be cold as.
Hate to say he hanging around.. Maybe if it lingers we call it 'Hangeron'
Looks locked and loaded on 00Z GFS
4 day BOM chart looks good too.
BOM saying 10-25/30mm for each of Hotham, Falls and Buller on Thursday, temps look favourable. Lock me in for 20cms at Buller, 25 cents at each of Falls and Hotham.
A nice little follow up to last week's season starter IMO
Looking good indeed. Come right back to where it was on Sunday. Liking the hook on it too, a whole lot less westerly than it was looking a couple of days ago. Just the numbers to look out for on Friday morning now.
looking good for 15 - 20cm IMO
with Selwyn probably getting the most
I'm not convinced it's going to work in Buller's favour due to the westerly aspect for part of this system.
I'm thinking 20-25cm for the majors, Buller perhaps 15cm. IMO
Ain't it always the way with Buller!
Already pretty chuck, stacked and loaded with moisture
I like that big fireball just sth, west of Tas.
I'm going 15-20 for Buffalo, the forgotten mountain. Still one of the best spots in Aus. for x-country.
Some of the pics I've been seeing on social media of the Cathederal from last week are nothing short of breathtaking.
BOM going for half the snow totals for Perisher than Thredbo?? Not complaining as I have my season pass for Thredbo but interested to know why this could be?? Wind direction maybe? Or just in a sweet spot?
Thanks for the heads up accomodation booked the next two weekend including a cheeky Friday next week.... Think next week will be a big one!
More or less... Orographic aspect has Vic resorts in the line of fire with the WSW flow, first - at least for when the models have the moisture progged to hit. Doesn't always work in a resorts favour if temps are marginal if it makes you feel any better.
Most stunning views in Alpine Australia too!
Severe Weather Warning for damaging winds for people in the North East, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts
Issued at 3:47 pm EST on Wednesday 29 June 2016.
Northerly winds are expected to strengthen overnight ahead of a cold front later on Thursday.
DAMAGING WINDS around 50 to 60 km/h with peak gusts of 100 km/h are forecast for elevated parts of the North East, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts on Wednesday night and during Thursday.
Strange there's no sheep graziers warning for Vic. but there is for N.S.W. Snow down to 800 meters sounds a bit to low IMO.
Vic Bom going for snow down to 1200m then lowering to 800m
Jumping the gun base wise imo.
15 - 20 for mine.
Good 40-50cm base in most leeward areas after the last storm IMO. Bluff Spur has 30% greater depth than anywhere else on that mountain. Stanley bowl will be deeper again.