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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, May 22, 2015.
EC / yr.no suggesting that Baw Baw will get a very solid dump out of this.
Woohoo, another Baw Baw special. If so Tuesday trip for me.
Monday might be the better day IMO.
Tuesday for Baw Baw.
I'd expect it to be snowing a fair bit there right through to Tuesday morning.
Whats the good word this morning CC?
IMO not much of a change.
Looking like a 15cm system (+/-5 cm), with possibly Baw Baw to do better.
Still think this system has alot of Norwest about it.
Even though the front is very SW
Just don't seem to be getting that draw down from the tropics to make it really work.
whats the streamline chart like for Sunday pm?
Yeah alot of norwest hook over the main range
looks like it drys up a bit after Monday morning on Axs no? Best to get it when it's cold and falling/just fallen I reckon.
I think it will hang around in the south and south east a bit longer.
noted. I might be getting a niggling little cough coming on... Even a little bit of snow at Baw Baw is better than none at all.
I take it that means we might squeeze a bit more out of this in the Snowy Mts?
Good for Hoth system & Falls IMO
Yeah I reckon the last 3 hours of light Monday.
Still can't see more than 15 for the big resorts
This is not a Buller system.
bit westerly eh?
Minor downgrade IMO:
Moisture the key. Maybe a bit of seeding in NSW
10am Monday is a weak arse spoil party high
NSW BOM, possible snow CT's Monday.
Whole things looked like a clipper for days imo
Not much too see here people . Move along please,gfs 050615 has something on the latest run
AXS R showing some nice colour over NSW alps. 10-15mm rain followed by 20cm snow.
GFS has backed off the size and reach of the cold air today on this animation for Sun/Mon. It made its way up the mid north coast yest. Can see the highs blocking next week.
Off topic, but South Island NZ looks to be getting a hammering.
Stay on topic.
IMO I'm not seeing any real change on EC.
Still a 15cm system.
Agree, maybe more above 1800m IMO
It's a waiting game now, givin' me the shits TBH...
I keep thinking hey, it's only May, we are probably a month off big snow. This is good
That BOM forecast looks remarkably similar to the GFS mrf of a few days ago.
But that will no longer be correct when the snow is on the ground Monday morning ... and melting Wednesday - Thursday.
1st of June is the cutoff for an official "late start": http://gergs.net/2015/04/snow-season-start/
Trailing high look like it may be a big blocker, what would be good is low cloud Tues-Friday to minimise loss from solar radiation. Nights should be cold which will help to preserve. Either way, the guns will top up the easy groomers to get the ball rolling IMO, but I agree, we'd want to see that high break down by end of next weekend. Some models suggesting another NW feed. Warm Indian Ocean SST's influencing things IMO Good for W.A. farmers, they need it...
I think this system may still surprise IMO. There is quite a large NW cloud band covering inland NSW which will get sucked into the mix, along with several embedded troughs.
Also, IMO, don't be surprised to see some places get a lot more of snow than others, and with the predominant S/SW direction when the cold air hits I'm betting Baw Baw and Buller will do best.
Pretty cold..i recken 20-30 cms up top at thredbo and perisher.
Steady as she goes IMO
About a week ago most models had the NW feed moving with a westerly frontal system, this has changed dramatically in the last 4-5 days.
In order for an inland trough to influence Alp snowfall you need a peaking band well west of this system's aspect. The main front of this scenario will be bearing WSW followed by a SSW flow. The mid-level troughs over central NSW on Sunday will have no impact whatsoever on alpine snow for this system.
So much cold speckle. Travelling North East. What I'd give for it to be 300km further north. Tassie should get smashed. imo.
Inland cloud should keep temps lower as the system approaches. Atmosphere already cold. Should help minimise any wet stuff early. AXS R still has 20-30mm precip .
Pre-season snow forecast
Guy Dixon, Saturday May 30, 2015 - 11:44 EST
With just one week until the start of the 2015 snow season, conditions are looking ripe for some healthy pre-season falls.
A cold front is looking to sweep over southeastern parts of the nation late on the weekend bringing an airmass cold enough for low level snow.
The greatest amount of precipitation is looking to fall late on Sunday night where 5-15cm could accumulate down to around 1100 metres with a cooling airmass. The airmass looks to be at it's coldest by around daybreak on Monday morning, however a lot of the precipitation looks to have dried up. Throughout Monday, another 5cm is likely to fall as low as 1000 metres.
Due to the southwesterly wind direction following this front, Victorian resorts are expected to collect the best snow falls, while resorts north of the border are more protected and favour a northwesterly airflow.
This cool airmass is expected to linger throughout much of the week with only gradual warming. As a result, temperatures on the peaks should remain close to freezing making snow melt negligible. As the 2015 season kicks off on Friday, there should still be plenty of snow on the ground, despite some crusty conditions due to repeated re-freezing of the top snow layer each night.
NSW BOM, still chance of snow on CT's tomorrow but they've lowered the elevation to 1000M
Cooma forecast has snow on it.
And Jindy too with the southerly air flow which is classic direction for Jindy & Cooma snowfalls.
Kinda ironic (and awesome) that the first calendar day of winter will have snow falling.....
Its cold enough to to throw a foot of snow wind blown off the main range onto antons /sponars.....and 2 meters by mid july..
Looking at the satellite image best chance of decent snow is in the pre frontal. Very dry looking air behind that with the bulk of the white smegma cloud missing the mainland.
I'm feeling a slight temperature rise in NSW with the pre frontal but it should come down as snow above 1600m. The pre frontal almost always comes as rain, so it'll be nice to see what we get, (given it has already started even at Perisher, I reckon it'll be a bit more than we have been predicting as of yet)